I'm not sure what's happened but this season isn't over yet, has been loss making since Christmas and yet, I'm starting to receive a fair few comments about next season and what it will look like. Also had a couple of emails asking about this too. Considering I was thinking of giving up on this a few weeks back, it seems people are more interested in this than when the ratings were hugely profitable! :(
I'm trying my best to keep track of questions as and when they are being asked by various people but I thought it might help if I put up a post asking for anyone to come forward with questions now. I don't want to get bogged down this summer with admin and answering questions day in, day out as my time needs to be spent working with the data I think. However, before this season ends, if people can put up any questions on this post, I'll do a Q&A post at some point soon.
The questions I've been asked in the past 24 hours or so are (Thanks to Alvin/Alex/David for these as a starter for ten):
Where can people join the mailing list I mentioned?
Will numbers be capped? If not, can you pay to get the bets first?
Will bets be sent out before appearing on blog?
What systems will be live?
What betting banks does each system need?
What are the drawdowns for each system for DNB?
Can I graph the drawdowns for each system for outright betting, DNB, DC?
Can I compare volatility of DNB and outright on each system?
Is DC a viable method to follow e.g. Is backing the draw profitable?
A few questions which I feel need answering from an admin perspective are:
When will the bets be sent out and posted on the blog next season?
Which bookies will prices be quoted from?
What will the new systems be called? Will these be worth following?
Which systems are being dropped?
I'm sure there are some people reading this blog who have some questions to ask and therefore, feel free to ask away on here. I'll collate any questions, structure them in some sort of way and then do a post answering the questions as best I can. Many questions will not be answerable until after this Summer but if people want to look at certain systems or staking plans etc. ask away and I'll log all these too.
I said to someone in an email today that I'm not their personal footie analyst and therefore, I can't answer all their questions at once! However, this blog is the place to do that stuff I guess and over the summer, with no football taking place, this is the time to try to push this analysis further and hopefully help some people come up with ways to make a profit next season from my footie ratings. Hence, if there is anything you think is worth looking at, drop me a comment or even an email if it's too long for a comment and I'll take a look at it.
Friday, 6 May 2011
Thursday, 5 May 2011
Weekend Bets
Here's the bets for the weekend. Before I looked at the fixtures this weekend but glanced at the betting, after the bets thrown up last weekend, I had a feeling I'd be taking on most of the teams at the bottom of the league who need points this weekend as the betting seems skewed towards these sort of teams as they need to win.
According to my figures, Aldershot are one of the biggest value bets this season at 3/1 away to Lincoln as Lincoln are useless. Lincoln have no wins in their last 10 and have lost their last 3 home games 6-0, 4-0 and 2-0! They are odds on this weekend though. They need a point to stay up (depending on what happens with Barnet) and they may need to win. Unfortunately, my ratings can't take this into account and Aldershot are thrown up as a massive value bet as they should be 6/4 and they are 3/1!
Gillingham are unbeaten in their last 11 away games and yet, can be backed at 12/5 in a game they need to win to get into the playoffs. Chesterfield are already promoted and are having a promotion party but need a point to win the league. Their is nothing between these two either, so 12/5 is huge.
Port Vale won 7-2 last time out and yet, are 13/5 against Barnet who are useless. Of course, Barnet need to win and Port Vale don't!
Newcastle are different class to Birmingham and have scored 4,5,5,6 against bottom half sides at home this season in 4 of the games and even beat Birmingham easily 2-0 in Birmingham which is amazing considering the record Birmingham have at home. Of course, Newcastle and Birmingham probably both need a point each to stay up. Draw anyone?
As you can see, I'm being quite cynical about this weekend's games but I honestly don't know what to make of it. I keep telling myself this sort of thing is in all my backtesting and backfitting each season and therefore, I can't do anything about this but follow the bets as I usually do.
This is meant to be a trial season and therefore, I'm curious to see what happens!
The Football Analyst Bets for 7th May
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Rochdale Bournemouth 2.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Southampton v Walsall Southampton 1.73 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Swindon Swindon 5.00 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Southampton v Walsall Southampton 1.73 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Southampton v Walsall Southampton 1.73 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
System 9
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
System 23
None
System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
System 16 Bet 1
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.75
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Corals
Any 3,4 and all 5 = 16 Bets
System 16 Bet 2
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 3.80
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 1.95
07/05/2011 League 1 Southampton v Walsall Southampton 1.70 VC
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets
System 17
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 1.91
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 B365
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets
System 18
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.75
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 Corals
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets
System 19
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.75
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Corals
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets
System 20
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 1.91 B365
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets
According to my figures, Aldershot are one of the biggest value bets this season at 3/1 away to Lincoln as Lincoln are useless. Lincoln have no wins in their last 10 and have lost their last 3 home games 6-0, 4-0 and 2-0! They are odds on this weekend though. They need a point to stay up (depending on what happens with Barnet) and they may need to win. Unfortunately, my ratings can't take this into account and Aldershot are thrown up as a massive value bet as they should be 6/4 and they are 3/1!
Gillingham are unbeaten in their last 11 away games and yet, can be backed at 12/5 in a game they need to win to get into the playoffs. Chesterfield are already promoted and are having a promotion party but need a point to win the league. Their is nothing between these two either, so 12/5 is huge.
Port Vale won 7-2 last time out and yet, are 13/5 against Barnet who are useless. Of course, Barnet need to win and Port Vale don't!
Newcastle are different class to Birmingham and have scored 4,5,5,6 against bottom half sides at home this season in 4 of the games and even beat Birmingham easily 2-0 in Birmingham which is amazing considering the record Birmingham have at home. Of course, Newcastle and Birmingham probably both need a point each to stay up. Draw anyone?
As you can see, I'm being quite cynical about this weekend's games but I honestly don't know what to make of it. I keep telling myself this sort of thing is in all my backtesting and backfitting each season and therefore, I can't do anything about this but follow the bets as I usually do.
This is meant to be a trial season and therefore, I'm curious to see what happens!
The Football Analyst Bets for 7th May
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Rochdale Bournemouth 2.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Southampton v Walsall Southampton 1.73 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Swindon Swindon 5.00 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Southampton v Walsall Southampton 1.73 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Southampton v Walsall Southampton 1.73 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
System 9
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
System 23
None
System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
System 16 Bet 1
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.75
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Corals
Any 3,4 and all 5 = 16 Bets
System 16 Bet 2
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 3.80
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 1.95
07/05/2011 League 1 Southampton v Walsall Southampton 1.70 VC
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets
System 17
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 1.91
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 B365
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets
System 18
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.75
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 Corals
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets
System 19
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.75
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Corals
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets
System 20
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 1.91 B365
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets
Wednesday, 4 May 2011
I rest my case your honour......
After writing my latest post yesterday and reading through it again today at lunchtime, it did make me wonder.....What if by including the 2006/7 and 2007/8 seasons in my results, this has been causing me to think things were behaving differently from the past when in reality, they weren't that different from the last couple of seasons?
As most people know now, from when I started out on this journey, I've only been quoting the last 4 season's results as the data I used to build the ratings from 2002-2006 is all backfitted data. If I was quoting these results, then I would be painting a misleading picture as the results for these years had ROI's of about 40% as I fixed the parameters of the two rating algorithms to maximise these results.
However, as I've quoted a fair few times now, I also used a sample of data from the 2006/7 and 2007/8 seasons to ensure my model wasn't using data from too long ago to miss any changes in trends. I randomly selected 50% of the games from 2006/7 and 2007/8 to include in my backfitted model and therefore, these years will always be slightly overstated. However, these seasons account for 1/6 (1/3 * 50%) of my full backfitted results and therefore, I was still fairly confident that the results weren't overstated in these seasons.
Admittedly, it would have been much better to just ignore the first two seasons completely and only look at the full 2 seasons of backtested results but my issue there was I only had 2 season's of data and it meant my sample size was only 5,164 games. I noticed a post by Cassini today about someone saying you needed 100,000 bets to be sure of an edge, so I'd be paper trading for the next 20 seasons under this scenario!
Anyway, I thought 5,164 games was too small to draw meaningful conclusions and that's why I've always went with 4 season's. 4 season's gave me 12,037 games and therefore, I was happy to go with this, on the understanding that my first two years were probably slightly inflated by around 20% I guess (hard to know for sure tbh as it depends how good the backfitting was in these 2 years compared to the backtested results!)
After writing yesterday's post, I could see clearly that the draw % was much lower in the first two seasons and therefore, this would be bringing down my overall draw % average. Hence, maybe this season's wasn't as bad compared to the last two season's backtested results.........
There is a lot of information to glean from this but whatever way you look at this, it shows my worries were unfounded. The one thing that stands out here though is how consistent the 08/09 and 09/10 seasons were. They had a very similar H/A/X % across both years. The draw % was remarkably similar with 26.1% in the first season and 26.4% in the second season.
To put this into perspective, the draw % for this season is 31.3%. That's an increase of a full 5% points or an increase of around 18% on last season.
Over the course of this season (2801 games), we can use the same draw % as last season at 26.4% to get an expected number of draws this season. This would be 740 draws. What have we had this season? 876 draws. Hence, 146 draws more than you would have expected, based on last season.
How much does this hurt the systems? Well, for every draw, the systems score -1pt. The average odds for my all bets is around the 7/4 mark (2.75). Using this as a proxy, we can say that each draw costs the systems 2.75pts (1.75pt profit as against 1pt loss). Hence, the systems have lost 400pts this season compared to last season.
This season, the systems have ONLY made a profit of 203pts with an ROI of 7.3%. If we add on the missing 400pts (sounds a lot when I say it!), then we'd be looking at an ROI of 21% for this season.
What was the ROI in the 2009/10 season? 21%. What was the ROI in the 2008/09 season? 21%.
I rest my case your honour.
Incidentally, the attachment also shows the draws by each system for the last 3 seasons. You can see just how badly some systems have been crippled this season by the draw.....
System 7 has a 32% draw rate this season compared to circa. 25% for the last two seasons
System 8 has a 30% draw rate this season compared to circa. 25% for the last two seasons
System 22 has a 33% draw rate this season compared to circa. 28% for the last two seasons
System 23 has a 36% draw rate (50% after Christmas!) this season compared to circa. 24% last season
All systems 6-21,6-22 et. al have draw rates much larger than the last two seasons as a result of this too
Whatever way you look at the data, this draw effect isn't caused by me backfitting results, having poor ratings, building poor systems etc. It is just short-term variance that has unfortunately lasted for half a season. Long-term though, the work I've done on this project isn't flawed I hope (and pray!)
As most people know now, from when I started out on this journey, I've only been quoting the last 4 season's results as the data I used to build the ratings from 2002-2006 is all backfitted data. If I was quoting these results, then I would be painting a misleading picture as the results for these years had ROI's of about 40% as I fixed the parameters of the two rating algorithms to maximise these results.
However, as I've quoted a fair few times now, I also used a sample of data from the 2006/7 and 2007/8 seasons to ensure my model wasn't using data from too long ago to miss any changes in trends. I randomly selected 50% of the games from 2006/7 and 2007/8 to include in my backfitted model and therefore, these years will always be slightly overstated. However, these seasons account for 1/6 (1/3 * 50%) of my full backfitted results and therefore, I was still fairly confident that the results weren't overstated in these seasons.
Admittedly, it would have been much better to just ignore the first two seasons completely and only look at the full 2 seasons of backtested results but my issue there was I only had 2 season's of data and it meant my sample size was only 5,164 games. I noticed a post by Cassini today about someone saying you needed 100,000 bets to be sure of an edge, so I'd be paper trading for the next 20 seasons under this scenario!
Anyway, I thought 5,164 games was too small to draw meaningful conclusions and that's why I've always went with 4 season's. 4 season's gave me 12,037 games and therefore, I was happy to go with this, on the understanding that my first two years were probably slightly inflated by around 20% I guess (hard to know for sure tbh as it depends how good the backfitting was in these 2 years compared to the backtested results!)
After writing yesterday's post, I could see clearly that the draw % was much lower in the first two seasons and therefore, this would be bringing down my overall draw % average. Hence, maybe this season's wasn't as bad compared to the last two season's backtested results.........
There is a lot of information to glean from this but whatever way you look at this, it shows my worries were unfounded. The one thing that stands out here though is how consistent the 08/09 and 09/10 seasons were. They had a very similar H/A/X % across both years. The draw % was remarkably similar with 26.1% in the first season and 26.4% in the second season.
To put this into perspective, the draw % for this season is 31.3%. That's an increase of a full 5% points or an increase of around 18% on last season.
Over the course of this season (2801 games), we can use the same draw % as last season at 26.4% to get an expected number of draws this season. This would be 740 draws. What have we had this season? 876 draws. Hence, 146 draws more than you would have expected, based on last season.
How much does this hurt the systems? Well, for every draw, the systems score -1pt. The average odds for my all bets is around the 7/4 mark (2.75). Using this as a proxy, we can say that each draw costs the systems 2.75pts (1.75pt profit as against 1pt loss). Hence, the systems have lost 400pts this season compared to last season.
This season, the systems have ONLY made a profit of 203pts with an ROI of 7.3%. If we add on the missing 400pts (sounds a lot when I say it!), then we'd be looking at an ROI of 21% for this season.
What was the ROI in the 2009/10 season? 21%. What was the ROI in the 2008/09 season? 21%.
I rest my case your honour.
Incidentally, the attachment also shows the draws by each system for the last 3 seasons. You can see just how badly some systems have been crippled this season by the draw.....
System 7 has a 32% draw rate this season compared to circa. 25% for the last two seasons
System 8 has a 30% draw rate this season compared to circa. 25% for the last two seasons
System 22 has a 33% draw rate this season compared to circa. 28% for the last two seasons
System 23 has a 36% draw rate (50% after Christmas!) this season compared to circa. 24% last season
All systems 6-21,6-22 et. al have draw rates much larger than the last two seasons as a result of this too
Whatever way you look at the data, this draw effect isn't caused by me backfitting results, having poor ratings, building poor systems etc. It is just short-term variance that has unfortunately lasted for half a season. Long-term though, the work I've done on this project isn't flawed I hope (and pray!)
Tuesday, 3 May 2011
'Your New Blog Reader' Comments
There were a couple of interesting comments posted by 'Your New Blog Reader' on a post from a few days ago. He was discussing about whether it may be better to play different strategies at different times of the year and it's actually something I mentioned in the TFA forum during February's bad spell as this was when I first realised there is potentially an issue after Christmas with my ratings. Here's both comments.
That was definitely a good read. I think it answered all of my questions about using variable stakes for your system. One important thing that I noticed (which you also mentioned in this post) is the fact that most losing months (with the exception of October 2008) came in the beginning of the year (or around second half of the season). I wonder what factors could be affecting this (probably some teams opting for a comfortable draw when they are safely in the top or may even player fatigue). But i think the important thing is that the first part of the season has historically been more profitable and this may very well be something to look out for next season. Anyway, thanks for answering my earlier queries. I look forward to reading more of your blog!
By the way, I've been looking at the performance of your system when using DNB and DC for the month of Jan - May. Please note that all results were taken from your April 11 post "Backing the Draw?".
From Jan - May 2007:
The H/A would have won around: 595.6 units
The DNB would have won around: 369 units
The DC would have gotten: 88.8 units
From Jan - May 2008:
The H/A: 208 units
The DNB: 165 units
The DC: -1.7 units
For the first 2 years of back testing your system. Backing the H/A would have produced around 50% more than simply backing the DNB (803.6 units vs. 534 units). The results for DC would not even be close. But the results for the DNB do get interesting once we look at the last 3 years.
For Jan - May 2009:
The H/A: 104.3 units
The DNB: 133.6 units
For Jan - May 2010:
The H/A: 266 units
The DNB: 229.9 units
For Jan - April 2011:
The H/A: -39.3 units
The DNB: 73.2 units
For the last 3 years, the DNB has outperformed the H/A by around 31% percent. Although I think this might be more of a reflection of what has been happening for the last 4 months (i.e. a ridiculous increase in draws), since 2009 and 2010 seem to cancel each other out. In addition, you said on "future analysis" that you may have overstated the profit of the DNB, so this might not be as promising as it looks.
Well I just wanted to point out that it might be an interesting thought to use variable stakes (i.e. using bigger values for months leading up to December) and then consider backing DNB instead (if this trend continues for the next season) to get a smoother ride since their recent ROI might not be as far apart anymore.
The picture below shows the returns for all the different types of betting (traditional H/A, DNB, DC, Draws) for each month going back to September 2006. Draws means backing the draw in each game selected by the system. I've also summarised the data by calendar month at the bottom of the monthly table. (Please be aware that for the purposes of continuity when reading the blog, my historical results for DNB/DC were wrong until recently as I was overstating DNB and understating DC. It's corrected now but it does mean that looking back when I've discussed these results before, they may not entirely tie up with the more recent results.)
If you look at the bottom of the table, you can see that there is a summary that splits the monthly data into months from Aug-Dec and Jan-May. The results clearly point to the fact that the first half of the season is more profitable than the second half of the season historically and we've certainly seen that this season also.
The same is true for DNB and DC (less so than DNB admittedly) and it is definitely the case for backing the draw. A substantial loss is shown in the first part of the season but a smaller loss in the second part of the season.
Now, looking at this data, all you can say is that you're more likely to make money in the first half of the season than the second half of the season but there is nothing too alarming that would want to make you think seriously about adopting a different approach from traditional H/A betting throughout the season.
However, and this is quite important and was overlooked by me earlier this year when I looked at this in the TFA forum, these results do include the seasons 2006/07 and 2007/08 which include some backfitted results. Although the results are not fully backfitted in these years, there is an element of backfitting in these years and therefore, they may be skewing the performance of the systems slightly as the backfitted results from 2002-2007 were much better than the backtested results in 2008 and 2009.
Stripping out the years with any backfitted results, how do the results look now?
Clearly, we can now see that there is a potential issue with the systems after Christmas. The ROI for the systems before Christmas is a healthy looking 24.7% but after Christmas, this falls to a lowly 7%. This includes this season's results which was a very high 30%+ before Christmas and a -ve ROI after Christmas.
Looking at DNB, it is 14.3% before Christmas and 8.5% after Christmas. Not quite the same drop off as traditional H/A betting but still a drop in return after Christmas.
Interestingly, looking at double chance, it looks much smoother. A return of 11.2% before Christmas and a return of 11.9% after Christmas.
You can see why this phenomenon occurs when you look at the returns from backing the draw. Before Christmas, this makes a near 600pt loss and after Christmas, this makes a profit of 377pts!
Obviously, this year is included in the results but even looking at this without this year included, backing the draw after Christmas was break-even before this season which is why double chance looks so good.
Although I don't want to draw too many conclusions at the moment and definitely now before I've spent an enormous amount of time on the ratings this summer and trying to understand how I can improve their profitability, I think there is plenty of evidence to suggest that I should be looking to get the draw on our side in some way or another. Whether this is done using DNB, DC or even a combination of DNB,DC and H/A betting throughout the season, I think there is enough evidence to involve me exploring this option for next season.
Thanks to 'A New Blog Reader' for the comments. I hope the above lets you see that you are actually onto something here although how we use the above info will always run the risk of backfitting something to fit the results which is not a route I want to go down!
In terms of variable staking, I probably agree that variable staking may actually work well with something like double chance betting, especially since the strike rate is very high and the average odds are low. Hence, it could be a steady way to increase your bank and your staking. Once I've decided on how I'm playing the bets next season, I'll then look at how to maximise the returns using different staking plans. This is definitely the last step in the process though for me and considering the work I need to do this summer, I won't be looking at this for a while!
That was definitely a good read. I think it answered all of my questions about using variable stakes for your system. One important thing that I noticed (which you also mentioned in this post) is the fact that most losing months (with the exception of October 2008) came in the beginning of the year (or around second half of the season). I wonder what factors could be affecting this (probably some teams opting for a comfortable draw when they are safely in the top or may even player fatigue). But i think the important thing is that the first part of the season has historically been more profitable and this may very well be something to look out for next season. Anyway, thanks for answering my earlier queries. I look forward to reading more of your blog!
By the way, I've been looking at the performance of your system when using DNB and DC for the month of Jan - May. Please note that all results were taken from your April 11 post "Backing the Draw?".
From Jan - May 2007:
The H/A would have won around: 595.6 units
The DNB would have won around: 369 units
The DC would have gotten: 88.8 units
From Jan - May 2008:
The H/A: 208 units
The DNB: 165 units
The DC: -1.7 units
For the first 2 years of back testing your system. Backing the H/A would have produced around 50% more than simply backing the DNB (803.6 units vs. 534 units). The results for DC would not even be close. But the results for the DNB do get interesting once we look at the last 3 years.
For Jan - May 2009:
The H/A: 104.3 units
The DNB: 133.6 units
For Jan - May 2010:
The H/A: 266 units
The DNB: 229.9 units
For Jan - April 2011:
The H/A: -39.3 units
The DNB: 73.2 units
For the last 3 years, the DNB has outperformed the H/A by around 31% percent. Although I think this might be more of a reflection of what has been happening for the last 4 months (i.e. a ridiculous increase in draws), since 2009 and 2010 seem to cancel each other out. In addition, you said on "future analysis" that you may have overstated the profit of the DNB, so this might not be as promising as it looks.
Well I just wanted to point out that it might be an interesting thought to use variable stakes (i.e. using bigger values for months leading up to December) and then consider backing DNB instead (if this trend continues for the next season) to get a smoother ride since their recent ROI might not be as far apart anymore.
The picture below shows the returns for all the different types of betting (traditional H/A, DNB, DC, Draws) for each month going back to September 2006. Draws means backing the draw in each game selected by the system. I've also summarised the data by calendar month at the bottom of the monthly table. (Please be aware that for the purposes of continuity when reading the blog, my historical results for DNB/DC were wrong until recently as I was overstating DNB and understating DC. It's corrected now but it does mean that looking back when I've discussed these results before, they may not entirely tie up with the more recent results.)
If you look at the bottom of the table, you can see that there is a summary that splits the monthly data into months from Aug-Dec and Jan-May. The results clearly point to the fact that the first half of the season is more profitable than the second half of the season historically and we've certainly seen that this season also.
The same is true for DNB and DC (less so than DNB admittedly) and it is definitely the case for backing the draw. A substantial loss is shown in the first part of the season but a smaller loss in the second part of the season.
Now, looking at this data, all you can say is that you're more likely to make money in the first half of the season than the second half of the season but there is nothing too alarming that would want to make you think seriously about adopting a different approach from traditional H/A betting throughout the season.
However, and this is quite important and was overlooked by me earlier this year when I looked at this in the TFA forum, these results do include the seasons 2006/07 and 2007/08 which include some backfitted results. Although the results are not fully backfitted in these years, there is an element of backfitting in these years and therefore, they may be skewing the performance of the systems slightly as the backfitted results from 2002-2007 were much better than the backtested results in 2008 and 2009.
Stripping out the years with any backfitted results, how do the results look now?
Clearly, we can now see that there is a potential issue with the systems after Christmas. The ROI for the systems before Christmas is a healthy looking 24.7% but after Christmas, this falls to a lowly 7%. This includes this season's results which was a very high 30%+ before Christmas and a -ve ROI after Christmas.
Looking at DNB, it is 14.3% before Christmas and 8.5% after Christmas. Not quite the same drop off as traditional H/A betting but still a drop in return after Christmas.
Interestingly, looking at double chance, it looks much smoother. A return of 11.2% before Christmas and a return of 11.9% after Christmas.
You can see why this phenomenon occurs when you look at the returns from backing the draw. Before Christmas, this makes a near 600pt loss and after Christmas, this makes a profit of 377pts!
Obviously, this year is included in the results but even looking at this without this year included, backing the draw after Christmas was break-even before this season which is why double chance looks so good.
Although I don't want to draw too many conclusions at the moment and definitely now before I've spent an enormous amount of time on the ratings this summer and trying to understand how I can improve their profitability, I think there is plenty of evidence to suggest that I should be looking to get the draw on our side in some way or another. Whether this is done using DNB, DC or even a combination of DNB,DC and H/A betting throughout the season, I think there is enough evidence to involve me exploring this option for next season.
Thanks to 'A New Blog Reader' for the comments. I hope the above lets you see that you are actually onto something here although how we use the above info will always run the risk of backfitting something to fit the results which is not a route I want to go down!
In terms of variable staking, I probably agree that variable staking may actually work well with something like double chance betting, especially since the strike rate is very high and the average odds are low. Hence, it could be a steady way to increase your bank and your staking. Once I've decided on how I'm playing the bets next season, I'll then look at how to maximise the returns using different staking plans. This is definitely the last step in the process though for me and considering the work I need to do this summer, I won't be looking at this for a while!
Monthly Review
Just a quick post to say I've posted up the monthly review. Not much more to say other than it's the worst month the systems have ever had by a long way!
http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/20102011-season-results-so-far.html
http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/20102011-season-results-so-far.html
Some Thoughts.....
OK, to follow on from my last post about the weekend results.
I deliberately took the last couple of days away from things to do with the footie. Anyone who knows me or who has been following the footie bets or even just reading the blog this season knows how much time, effort and dedication has gone into this project over the last 16 months and therefore, even though February was hard to take (it was my first ever losing month on the footie personally), April has been much harder to take.
I don’t want to bore everyone on here or in the TFA forum about how much I’ve put into this (it’s not hard to see as this sort of thing eats up your time like you’d never believe) but simply, this takes up so much of my time, I really need to have complete confidence in where I’m going with it. If the day comes when I feel like I can’t make this work going forward, I need to pull the plug on it and walk away as I can’t justify my time on this without making money from it.
I’m not afraid to admit that I’ve now made next to no money on the footie this season (own fault really as I changed stakes a few times this season and at Christmas, I thought I’d maybe built the Holy Grail when it comes to footie which meant another increase in stakes!) but unfortunately, the second half of the season has nearly wiped out all my profits from this season. Putting my personal betting to one side, the question I need to ask myself continually with this project is, am I any closer to finding something that works?
Even after February, I had a massive belief that it was a one-off month and after a fair bit of work looking at the monthly results statistically, I was confident that February was a once in 20 month event. Hence, months like February would come along 5% of the time and therefore, I knew what to expect.
Anyone who’s been reading the blog for a while will know all about February and all the statistical testing I carried out to try to find out how common a month like February was based on the past month’s results. Using a simple Standard Deviation approach, I figured that February had a circa. 5% chance of happening based on past months. The draw % was 38.5% in this month and to put it in perspective, the next highest month was 33.5%. I took February on the chin and said to myself that if months like this happen once every 20 months, I can take it and not worry too much about it. It was part of the game.
March then came along, won back all the points lost in February and even though the ROI on the systems had taken a massive hit after breaking even in 2 months, I wasn’t overly concerned about what had happened and still had belief that I was on track to build something really special here.
That led us onto April…..
I’ll spoil the fun from my monthly review but the draw % for April is 42.1%. Now, if you had hit a 42% strike rate with draws over a small sample of bets, I can understand that things like this can happen. However, the number of bets in April has been 439 bets. Hence, I’ve hit 185 draws in 439 games.
I’ve done the same analysis as I did with February and simply, the chances of April occurring based on past month’s draws % lie between 1% and 2%. Hence, we’re looking at April happening maybe once every 50 months.
I can even go a step further than this and if I look at 2011 as a whole, the draw % is 36.1% from 1,606 bets. If I was aiming for draws, to hit a 36% strike rate over so many bets would be the best system I’ve probably ever seen on the football.
April alone has made 200pts profit from backing the draw and 2011 has a profit of 400pts from backing the draw. This is from the same 1,606 bets. A 25% ROI from backing the draw.
I’ve been thinking long and hard over the last 2 days about whether this is something that I should have maybe been more aware of but I don’t think I could have been. Before this season, backing the draw in every game has lost 1,800pts over 12,000 games. This season, the draw has made a profit of 226pts from 2,800 games. Clearly, the first half of this season has followed the past and made a loss but for some reason, the second half of this season looks nothing like the past.
I keep going over and over it in my head and thinking to myself, should I have spotted this could happen? Could I have saved myself all of the losses from Christmas? Could I have saved others some money too?
I think at the end of the day, I keep coming back to the same thing. February was a once in a 20 month event and April is a once in a 50 month event. The chances of both these months occurring within 3 months? Well, I don’t want to guess as I’m not sure if they are both independent of each other (20*50 if they are) but whatever way, we’re looking at 500/1+ I suspect.
Based on the evidence of 14,838 bets to the end of April 2011, it was impossible for me to imagine that February and April could happen together. Yeah, I could imagine either month could happen in a season but the chances of both happening within 3 months…..I couldn’t have imagined that happening.
Now that it has happened, where does it leave me for the future…..Is this project dead? My systems now look hopeless after their first live season.
I’ve given it a lot of thought over the past 2 days and I think it would be fairly easy for me to pull the plug on this and walk away. For a start, I’ve never received a penny from anyone for anything I’ve done this season and therefore, I’ve got nothing to feel bad for from that respect. Yeah, I’m disappointed some people may have lost money or not won the amount they thought they’d win at Christmas based on results to then but then again, I’m in the same boat. Considering I’ve done all the work, I should feel slightly more aggrieved I suspect than anyone else who has been following the footie!
Even though the easy decision is to walk away from this possibly, I feel like I owe it to myself to give this another shot next season. If anything, I want to prove to myself and anyone who’s been with me on this journey that April is a once in a 50 season event when it comes to hitting so many draws!
Take away February or April from my results and this season would be hailed as the best first season by a football system/tipster for a long-time. Unfortunately, I can’t do that but no one can take away from me the fact that at Christmas time, it looked like I had built something that could achieve a 20%+ ROI on the footie across a massive sample of games. January and March backed this up further but for whatever reason, the draws have killed me in February and April.
So, I’ll be giving this another go next season as I have a lot to prove I think. I’ve got lots of ideas around how I can use the draw to my advantage and looking at the long-term results of DNB and DC, you can see lots of evidence that I can probably afford to cover the draw in some games to try to reduce the variance of my returns for when months like February or April occur.
I’ve also got some ideas about how I can tweak the two rating algorithms I’ve got at the moment (especially systems 21-23) and I’m also going to consider building a 3rd algorithm that will look to maximise returns from DNB or DC instead of maximising returns from traditionally H/A betting.
I feel really down about this season at the moment and I’m disappointed about how it has went from Christmas but I honestly believe that at Christmas, this is the closest I’ve ever come to seeing something that I thought could actually work long-term when it comes to gambling. You don’t fluke 4 months results over 1,000 games and even though the season has went down the tubes, my ratings and systems have still been profitable this season overall if I look at the full season. That has to count for something!
Anyway, that’s my thoughts at the moment. I’ll get round to my monthly review sometime this week. I’ll mention it on here when I post it on the season’s results section.
A quick word on the recent comments from Your New Blog Reader. I think you raise some very good points and as the week goes on, I’ll get around to answering your questions or commenting on the points you make. It’s great to have a new reader tbh as it can get quite lonely at times on here writing to myself and I’d love some more interaction on here with anyone who is reading the blog. I’m sure some people have questions or comments to make, so feel free to post them up and I’ll respond!
I deliberately took the last couple of days away from things to do with the footie. Anyone who knows me or who has been following the footie bets or even just reading the blog this season knows how much time, effort and dedication has gone into this project over the last 16 months and therefore, even though February was hard to take (it was my first ever losing month on the footie personally), April has been much harder to take.
I don’t want to bore everyone on here or in the TFA forum about how much I’ve put into this (it’s not hard to see as this sort of thing eats up your time like you’d never believe) but simply, this takes up so much of my time, I really need to have complete confidence in where I’m going with it. If the day comes when I feel like I can’t make this work going forward, I need to pull the plug on it and walk away as I can’t justify my time on this without making money from it.
I’m not afraid to admit that I’ve now made next to no money on the footie this season (own fault really as I changed stakes a few times this season and at Christmas, I thought I’d maybe built the Holy Grail when it comes to footie which meant another increase in stakes!) but unfortunately, the second half of the season has nearly wiped out all my profits from this season. Putting my personal betting to one side, the question I need to ask myself continually with this project is, am I any closer to finding something that works?
Even after February, I had a massive belief that it was a one-off month and after a fair bit of work looking at the monthly results statistically, I was confident that February was a once in 20 month event. Hence, months like February would come along 5% of the time and therefore, I knew what to expect.
Anyone who’s been reading the blog for a while will know all about February and all the statistical testing I carried out to try to find out how common a month like February was based on the past month’s results. Using a simple Standard Deviation approach, I figured that February had a circa. 5% chance of happening based on past months. The draw % was 38.5% in this month and to put it in perspective, the next highest month was 33.5%. I took February on the chin and said to myself that if months like this happen once every 20 months, I can take it and not worry too much about it. It was part of the game.
March then came along, won back all the points lost in February and even though the ROI on the systems had taken a massive hit after breaking even in 2 months, I wasn’t overly concerned about what had happened and still had belief that I was on track to build something really special here.
That led us onto April…..
I’ll spoil the fun from my monthly review but the draw % for April is 42.1%. Now, if you had hit a 42% strike rate with draws over a small sample of bets, I can understand that things like this can happen. However, the number of bets in April has been 439 bets. Hence, I’ve hit 185 draws in 439 games.
I’ve done the same analysis as I did with February and simply, the chances of April occurring based on past month’s draws % lie between 1% and 2%. Hence, we’re looking at April happening maybe once every 50 months.
I can even go a step further than this and if I look at 2011 as a whole, the draw % is 36.1% from 1,606 bets. If I was aiming for draws, to hit a 36% strike rate over so many bets would be the best system I’ve probably ever seen on the football.
April alone has made 200pts profit from backing the draw and 2011 has a profit of 400pts from backing the draw. This is from the same 1,606 bets. A 25% ROI from backing the draw.
I’ve been thinking long and hard over the last 2 days about whether this is something that I should have maybe been more aware of but I don’t think I could have been. Before this season, backing the draw in every game has lost 1,800pts over 12,000 games. This season, the draw has made a profit of 226pts from 2,800 games. Clearly, the first half of this season has followed the past and made a loss but for some reason, the second half of this season looks nothing like the past.
I keep going over and over it in my head and thinking to myself, should I have spotted this could happen? Could I have saved myself all of the losses from Christmas? Could I have saved others some money too?
I think at the end of the day, I keep coming back to the same thing. February was a once in a 20 month event and April is a once in a 50 month event. The chances of both these months occurring within 3 months? Well, I don’t want to guess as I’m not sure if they are both independent of each other (20*50 if they are) but whatever way, we’re looking at 500/1+ I suspect.
Based on the evidence of 14,838 bets to the end of April 2011, it was impossible for me to imagine that February and April could happen together. Yeah, I could imagine either month could happen in a season but the chances of both happening within 3 months…..I couldn’t have imagined that happening.
Now that it has happened, where does it leave me for the future…..Is this project dead? My systems now look hopeless after their first live season.
I’ve given it a lot of thought over the past 2 days and I think it would be fairly easy for me to pull the plug on this and walk away. For a start, I’ve never received a penny from anyone for anything I’ve done this season and therefore, I’ve got nothing to feel bad for from that respect. Yeah, I’m disappointed some people may have lost money or not won the amount they thought they’d win at Christmas based on results to then but then again, I’m in the same boat. Considering I’ve done all the work, I should feel slightly more aggrieved I suspect than anyone else who has been following the footie!
Even though the easy decision is to walk away from this possibly, I feel like I owe it to myself to give this another shot next season. If anything, I want to prove to myself and anyone who’s been with me on this journey that April is a once in a 50 season event when it comes to hitting so many draws!
Take away February or April from my results and this season would be hailed as the best first season by a football system/tipster for a long-time. Unfortunately, I can’t do that but no one can take away from me the fact that at Christmas time, it looked like I had built something that could achieve a 20%+ ROI on the footie across a massive sample of games. January and March backed this up further but for whatever reason, the draws have killed me in February and April.
So, I’ll be giving this another go next season as I have a lot to prove I think. I’ve got lots of ideas around how I can use the draw to my advantage and looking at the long-term results of DNB and DC, you can see lots of evidence that I can probably afford to cover the draw in some games to try to reduce the variance of my returns for when months like February or April occur.
I’ve also got some ideas about how I can tweak the two rating algorithms I’ve got at the moment (especially systems 21-23) and I’m also going to consider building a 3rd algorithm that will look to maximise returns from DNB or DC instead of maximising returns from traditionally H/A betting.
I feel really down about this season at the moment and I’m disappointed about how it has went from Christmas but I honestly believe that at Christmas, this is the closest I’ve ever come to seeing something that I thought could actually work long-term when it comes to gambling. You don’t fluke 4 months results over 1,000 games and even though the season has went down the tubes, my ratings and systems have still been profitable this season overall if I look at the full season. That has to count for something!
Anyway, that’s my thoughts at the moment. I’ll get round to my monthly review sometime this week. I’ll mention it on here when I post it on the season’s results section.
A quick word on the recent comments from Your New Blog Reader. I think you raise some very good points and as the week goes on, I’ll get around to answering your questions or commenting on the points you make. It’s great to have a new reader tbh as it can get quite lonely at times on here writing to myself and I’d love some more interaction on here with anyone who is reading the blog. I’m sure some people have questions or comments to make, so feel free to post them up and I’ll respond!
Monday, 2 May 2011
Another Unbelievable Day
I’ll split tonight into 2 posts. This post will purely cover the results from Saturday and then I’ll do another post with some thoughts. I’ve deliberately taken a wee break from the blog and TFA forum over the past few days to try to clear my head a little about the results in April. I’ve not even started to look at a monthly review for April but I know the headline figures and it won’t be a pretty read (or in my case, a pretty thing to write!)
Anyway, before I share some thoughts later, a quick rundown of Saturday. I said the other day my enthusiasm for the footie was at an all time low after the number of draws in April but Saturday took things to a new level.
There were 3 main games that accounted for the majority of the system bets and with 10 minutes to go, two teams were one goal up and one was drawing. I was out at the Dundee game on Saturday but as usual, I was keeping a close eye on Betfair Mobile and I could see both my teams were trading at around 1.2 and I could see that Sheff Wed were actually more favoured to score in their game against Bristol Rovers on Betfair. Could this be a day for 3 from 3?
It was getting more interesting at the Dundee game as Partick had pulled it back to 3-2 late on and therefore, Betfair Mobile was put away and I would check the scores when I got back to the car. As soon as the Dundee game finished, I checked my phone and noticed a text from a mate. This is it I thought….3 winners today…..
“You won’t believe this mate, but 3 draws and two of your teams lost late goals!”
I’m sure we’ve all had that sinking feeling when you hear you’re a team has lost a late goal but after the way 2011 has went for me on the footie, this was just another kick in the teeth. I’m not even going to try to pretend I know the number of games or points that teams have lost me over the past 12 weeks or so when they have been winning with 10 minutes to go but it has happened far too often.
I checked the scores when I got in and being honest, I just sort of stared at the screen in disbelief again. 13 different games on Saturday, 3 wins, 3 losses and 7 draws.
Obviously, the systems take these games and select the best games to appear on each system. This isn’t actually the worst weekend this season I think (I remember hitting 80% strike rate for a smaller number of games earlier this season) but the system bets on Saturday read 6 wins, 6 losses and 42 draws.
If you had not experienced a draw for a while, then hitting 42 draws out of 54 games wouldn’t exactly be uncommon but in a month where the draw % is sitting at 35%+, to hit another 42 draws from only 54 bets was unbelievable.
It was a 4pt loss from the 13 games but the systems turned this into a 33.6pt loss on the day from 54 bets.
DNB made a profit of 3pts on the day from the 54 bets which isn’t too surprising considering 42 bets were no bets!
The star of the show again this month was double chance with a remarkable 20pts profit on the day. 48 winners from 54 bets isn’t bad!
Well, the real star of the show was actually the draw now I think about it. An 87pt profit on the day with an ROI of 161%. :(
Another unbelievable day I’m afraid…….
Anyway, before I share some thoughts later, a quick rundown of Saturday. I said the other day my enthusiasm for the footie was at an all time low after the number of draws in April but Saturday took things to a new level.
There were 3 main games that accounted for the majority of the system bets and with 10 minutes to go, two teams were one goal up and one was drawing. I was out at the Dundee game on Saturday but as usual, I was keeping a close eye on Betfair Mobile and I could see both my teams were trading at around 1.2 and I could see that Sheff Wed were actually more favoured to score in their game against Bristol Rovers on Betfair. Could this be a day for 3 from 3?
It was getting more interesting at the Dundee game as Partick had pulled it back to 3-2 late on and therefore, Betfair Mobile was put away and I would check the scores when I got back to the car. As soon as the Dundee game finished, I checked my phone and noticed a text from a mate. This is it I thought….3 winners today…..
“You won’t believe this mate, but 3 draws and two of your teams lost late goals!”
I’m sure we’ve all had that sinking feeling when you hear you’re a team has lost a late goal but after the way 2011 has went for me on the footie, this was just another kick in the teeth. I’m not even going to try to pretend I know the number of games or points that teams have lost me over the past 12 weeks or so when they have been winning with 10 minutes to go but it has happened far too often.
I checked the scores when I got in and being honest, I just sort of stared at the screen in disbelief again. 13 different games on Saturday, 3 wins, 3 losses and 7 draws.
Obviously, the systems take these games and select the best games to appear on each system. This isn’t actually the worst weekend this season I think (I remember hitting 80% strike rate for a smaller number of games earlier this season) but the system bets on Saturday read 6 wins, 6 losses and 42 draws.
If you had not experienced a draw for a while, then hitting 42 draws out of 54 games wouldn’t exactly be uncommon but in a month where the draw % is sitting at 35%+, to hit another 42 draws from only 54 bets was unbelievable.
It was a 4pt loss from the 13 games but the systems turned this into a 33.6pt loss on the day from 54 bets.
DNB made a profit of 3pts on the day from the 54 bets which isn’t too surprising considering 42 bets were no bets!
The star of the show again this month was double chance with a remarkable 20pts profit on the day. 48 winners from 54 bets isn’t bad!
Well, the real star of the show was actually the draw now I think about it. An 87pt profit on the day with an ROI of 161%. :(
Another unbelievable day I’m afraid…….
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