Anyway, before I share some thoughts later, a quick rundown of Saturday. I said the other day my enthusiasm for the footie was at an all time low after the number of draws in April but Saturday took things to a new level.
There were 3 main games that accounted for the majority of the system bets and with 10 minutes to go, two teams were one goal up and one was drawing. I was out at the Dundee game on Saturday but as usual, I was keeping a close eye on Betfair Mobile and I could see both my teams were trading at around 1.2 and I could see that Sheff Wed were actually more favoured to score in their game against Bristol Rovers on Betfair. Could this be a day for 3 from 3?
It was getting more interesting at the Dundee game as Partick had pulled it back to 3-2 late on and therefore, Betfair Mobile was put away and I would check the scores when I got back to the car. As soon as the Dundee game finished, I checked my phone and noticed a text from a mate. This is it I thought….3 winners today…..
“You won’t believe this mate, but 3 draws and two of your teams lost late goals!”
I’m sure we’ve all had that sinking feeling when you hear you’re a team has lost a late goal but after the way 2011 has went for me on the footie, this was just another kick in the teeth. I’m not even going to try to pretend I know the number of games or points that teams have lost me over the past 12 weeks or so when they have been winning with 10 minutes to go but it has happened far too often.
I checked the scores when I got in and being honest, I just sort of stared at the screen in disbelief again. 13 different games on Saturday, 3 wins, 3 losses and 7 draws.
Obviously, the systems take these games and select the best games to appear on each system. This isn’t actually the worst weekend this season I think (I remember hitting 80% strike rate for a smaller number of games earlier this season) but the system bets on Saturday read 6 wins, 6 losses and 42 draws.
If you had not experienced a draw for a while, then hitting 42 draws out of 54 games wouldn’t exactly be uncommon but in a month where the draw % is sitting at 35%+, to hit another 42 draws from only 54 bets was unbelievable.
It was a 4pt loss from the 13 games but the systems turned this into a 33.6pt loss on the day from 54 bets.
DNB made a profit of 3pts on the day from the 54 bets which isn’t too surprising considering 42 bets were no bets!
The star of the show again this month was double chance with a remarkable 20pts profit on the day. 48 winners from 54 bets isn’t bad!
Well, the real star of the show was actually the draw now I think about it. An 87pt profit on the day with an ROI of 161%. :(
Another unbelievable day I’m afraid…….
Hi Graeme,
ReplyDeleteWhen you say about double chance (DC) is that selection + draw? Ie: From the fixtures above Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed your selection was Sheff Wed so if betting DC that would mean Sheff Wed or draw for a return on stake?
Thanks for your help - find your blog a fascinating read
Keith
Hi Keith.
ReplyDeleteGlad you're enjoying the blog. Been a nightmare couple of months for me but trying to keep focussed that this is a long-term game. Easier said than done at the moment!
The 3 ways I'm showing the results at the moment are Double Chance, Draw No Bet and H/A (Traditional win betting on selection).
Double Chance (DC) means backing the selection and the draw to win the same amount no matter if the game finishes a draw or a win for the selection. In other words, it's a dutch on the draw and win.
Draw No Bet (DNB) means backing the selection to win and backing the draw to cover the stake on the selection. If the selection draws, you break-even but if they win, you win an amount, less the amount you staked on the draw.
DNB obviously offers you higher odds than DC but every time there is a draw, DNB breaks even and DC makes a small profit.
Going forward, although DC looks like a good strategy, it isn't one I would recommend. The only time DC does well is when there are a lot of draws instead of my selections winning and all my work this summer is going to be around trying to reduce the draws my ratings throw up, so it will worsen DC returns. It will worsen DNB too but nowhere near by the same amount.
I've a lot of work to do this summer to decide where I go from here. I want to build a 3rd set of systems which will be looking to maximise DNB (and therefore will do well with DC too) and if people are interested in DC, this could be the system for them.
We have to remember though that all my work is trying to make money backing teams to win. DC is making money backing teams to win or draw and the fact that does well means my ratings aren't doing as well as they should do! DNB isn't too worrying as you'll always hit draws, so this just smooths the journey compared to outright backing.
As I say, I'll be doing a lot of work this summer and writing about it on here I guess, so hopefully you'll keep following the journey and hopefully I'll have something in place for next season which can be followed with confidence during another trial season.
One point I don't make is that until this season, backing the draw always loses money using my ratings. Hence, any staking on the draw rather than my selection will reduce your profits I think. This game is about more than just the bottom line I think. The journey throughout the season is also key!
Hope this answers your query.
Graeme