Friday, 6 May 2011

Question and Answer Session

I'm not sure what's happened but this season isn't over yet, has been loss making since Christmas and yet, I'm starting to receive a fair few comments about next season and what it will look like. Also had a couple of emails asking about this too. Considering I was thinking of giving up on this a few weeks back, it seems people are more interested in this than when the ratings were hugely profitable! :(

I'm trying my best to keep track of questions as and when they are being asked by various people but I thought it might help if I put up a post asking for anyone to come forward with questions now. I don't want to get bogged down this summer with admin and answering questions day in, day out as my time needs to be spent working with the data I think. However, before this season ends, if people can put up any questions on this post, I'll do a Q&A post at some point soon.

The questions I've been asked in the past 24 hours or so are (Thanks to Alvin/Alex/David for these as a starter for ten):

Where can people join the mailing list I mentioned?
Will numbers be capped? If not, can you pay to get the bets first?
Will bets be sent out before appearing on blog?
What systems will be live?
What betting banks does each system need?
What are the drawdowns for each system for DNB?
Can I graph the drawdowns for each system for outright betting, DNB, DC?
Can I compare volatility of DNB and outright on each system?
Is DC a viable method to follow e.g. Is backing the draw profitable?

A few questions which I feel need answering from an admin perspective are:

When will the bets be sent out and posted on the blog next season?
Which bookies will prices be quoted from?
What will the new systems be called? Will these be worth following?
Which systems are being dropped?

I'm sure there are some people reading this blog who have some questions to ask and therefore, feel free to ask away on here. I'll collate any questions, structure them in some sort of way and then do a post answering the questions as best I can. Many questions will not be answerable until after this Summer but if people want to look at certain systems or staking plans etc. ask away and I'll log all these too.

I said to someone in an email today that I'm not their personal footie analyst and therefore, I can't answer all their questions at once! However, this blog is the place to do that stuff I guess and over the summer, with no football taking place, this is the time to try to push this analysis further and hopefully help some people come up with ways to make a profit next season from my footie ratings. Hence, if there is anything you think is worth looking at, drop me a comment or even an email if it's too long for a comment and I'll take a look at it.


  1. Great blog this. Can't wait to follow these bets next season after watching from a distance this season.

    Few observations rather than questions.I'm probably not alone when I say I'd rather pay you a small fee next season rather than receive free selections on the blog.I think this has more potential than most betting systems I've seen before.Don't know if it can be translated from potential to profit but I'd happily pay to find out.I spent over £600 on football services last year and not one of them put as much work into this as you clearly have.

    Charge £50-£75 next season,limit it to 100 members and put me down as your first member.Others will follow.If they don't, their loss.

    Only issue I can foresee is you trying to achieve too high a return and reducing the number of bets and systems as a result.This isn't an optimal solution as we all don't want to be backing the same 3 teams every weekend.I prefer to be backing 10-12 with a higher stake on the teams representing most value.Your set up currently allows me to do this.

    Keep up the work and best of luck for next season.


  2. Graeme

    My first post on here, sorry for lurking so long.

    I've been a reader of your blog since the end of last year and I must admit to being sceptical at first. It didn't take me long though to realise that you wear your heart on your sleeve and tell it like it is and the fact you’d done all this free of charge for this season is very commendable. The recent run you’ve been on has been horrible to watch but I can only imagine how down you have been after you’re the work you have put in this season.

    A few months back I decided to try and emulate your methods and I did have some moderate success. What I found though was that a lack of time was a massive hindrance to what I was trying to do. I really don't know how you manage to produce your detailed analysis on a regular basis. Your better half must be very understanding. I gave up after a few weeks and I know how to work Excel too.

    Whilst we all know the past month and February in particular has been a disappointment, I think that you just happened to have hit a barren period just when you didn't want to. Murphy's law kicked in big time! It was obviously going to happen. The funny thing is that I sort of believe in your methods more because of it.

    I’m looking forward to next season and I’ll leave it up to you to decide which bets I should follow. Just tell me where to sign-up for next season’s service.

    Just keep doing what you're doing and that'll do for me.



  3. Hi Eddie.

    Thanks for your comment. I get the feeling most people watch this blog from afar but hopefully it is a good read. It’s probably hard for people to get involved as I do tend to just write to myself at times but I do enjoy getting the odd comment as it shows I’m not just writing to myself!

    Thanks for your thoughts. Being honest, I’m still not sure I will ever translate the potential into profit and that’s partly why I don’t want to go down the subscription route next season. I hoped to have something concrete that worked after this season but so far, I can’t say I’ve got to that stage yet. I’m closer than I was at the start of the season though!

    As for charging a fee next season, I’ve had a few emails suggesting people would prefer to pay a small fee instead of receiving the selections on the blog so they could guarantee that they’ll get the best prices. I don’t have an issue with this but ultimately, that means I’m making the leap from a free blog (which only has one season’s results) to a paid service and I’m not sure I’m ready for this yet. I’ll give it some thought and decide what I’ll do over the summer.

    I actually agree with your last point and I’ve realised that this season I think. I personally prefer to have a decent number of selections each weekend and although this doesn’t fit in with everyone, I don’t want to narrow the bets down too much more than this season. I guess the thing that’s great about what I’ve built here is that everyone can choose a portfolio to suit their needs. Some would like to play all value bets and some would only like to play the very best bets. I can cater for everyone I hope!

    Anyway, thanks again and your comments give me more food for thought for the summer I think.


  4. Hi Neil.

    Interesting post. The sceptical point is an interesting one as I sometimes think people always tag me with that comment. When I first started out at the horseracing, people were sceptical of me and when I switched to football, I’m guessing the same applies. One comment I often get asked is, why do you do all this and get nothing from it?

    The truth is, I get lots from this. There is no greater feeling than winning money from gambling and the only thing that can beat that is helping many more people win money at the same time. I could easily just do this all on my own and not share anything I’ve done but I enjoy the interaction with people. I see it as one massive battle against the bookmakers who employ lots of very intelligent odds compilers to try to take money from people and I see myself as someone who can swing the odds into the punter’s favour long-term. I thought that with horseracing and I definitely think that with football.

    I think the point about wearing my heart on my sleeve is a criticism that has been thrown at me many times before when I ran the horseracing site. People hated the fact I went through the ups and downs they suffered and wanted me to take a more professional approach and pretend that it didn’t affect me when I had losing days!

    Well, when I started out at the football this season, my aim was to build something that distanced me from the selections and I’ve done that. All the football systems are done in Excel and all the bets are automatic and there is no human intervention here at all. Therefore, although I go through lots of emotions with the football, it can’t have any impact on the next set of selections!

    I think you may be right about the timing of the loss being Murphy’s Law as until February, I thought I had built something pretty special and I was already looking forward to next season but all these plans had to be shelved after two shocking months!

    In a way, I’m glad it happened this season as it means I’ve got something to look back on if it happens again. If I’d never had a losing month before stepping this up a gear, I’d have taken really bad when the losing month came but now, I’ve experienced the two worst months the systems have ever had this season. Should help me keep level headed in future I think!

    Thanks for the comment and I’ll let you know the plans for next season on the blog I guess, so keep reading.