Another busy weekend with 17 different games this weekend.
One game stands out this weekend as a clear value bet and appears on every system which doesn't happen too often. Yeovil are the team and at 2/1, they are clear value against Hartlepool based on the recent form of both teams.
I've had a quick look at Fink Tank out of curiosity and they make Yeovil more likely to win this game than Hartlepool. Hence, 2/1 seems decent and won't last I suspect.
Looking quickly, Hartlepool have lost their last couple of games at home and have no wins in their last 4. They drew 1-1 last time out to stop the rot but looking at the stats, Swindon dominated the game with more than twice the number of shots on goal.
On the other hand, Yeovil have won 3 of their last 4 games and in the defeat, they easily beat Bristol Rovers on shots but just couldn't score. They've won their last 2 away games, scoring 8 goals and beating teams in the top half of the table.
In their last 6 away games at bottom half sides, they've won 3, drew 2 and lost 1.
It should be fairly close between these two but my ratings favour Yeovil. Hence, at 2/1, it's an obvious value pick which explains why it appears on so many systems.
I think it's interesting when I look at some games and why the ratings have found value but I try my best to not look as being honest, I struggle to justify most of the bets!
The Football Analyst Bets for 8th-10th April
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
08/04/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Accrington Accrington 2.40 Tote
09/04/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 3.44 Pinnacle
09/04/2011 Championship Ipswich v C Palace Ipswich 1.82 Pinnacle
09/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Norwich Swansea 2.25 SJ
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Exeter Exeter 3.00 Blue Sq
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 League 1 Oldham v Charlton Oldham 2.50 SJ
09/04/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.50 Tote
09/04/2011 Premiership Bolton v West Ham Bolton 2.25 VC
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
09/04/2011 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Histon Gateshead 1.57 WH
10/04/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Newcastle Newcastle 4.72 Pinnacle
System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
08/04/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Accrington Accrington 2.40 Tote
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
10/04/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Newcastle Newcastle 4.72 Pinnacle
System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
System 9
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Norwich Swansea 2.25 SJ
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Exeter Exeter 3.00 Blue Sq
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.50 Tote
09/04/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Gillingham Gillingham 2.25 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Bury Bury 2.50 Corals
09/04/2011 League 2 Port Vale v Southend Port Vale 2.05 WH
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Exeter Exeter 3.00 Blue Sq
09/04/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.50 Tote
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Norwich Swansea 2.25 SJ
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
System 16
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 2.75
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.73
09/04/2011 League 1 Oldham v Charlton Oldham 2.50
09/04/2011 Premiership Bolton v West Ham Bolton 2.25 Corals
Any 3,4 and all 5 = 16 Bets
System 17
None
System 18
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 2.75
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.73 Corals
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets
System 19
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 2.75
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.73 Corals
Any 2,3 and all 4 = 11 Bets
System 20
None
Thursday, 7 April 2011
More of the same in midweek
Just bringing the latest results up to date on the blog.
2 games in midweek, 2 losses. 4 system bets, 4 losses.
One thing that's quite clear now is that whatever worked in the first half of the season on systems 21-23 isn't working in the second half of the season. System 23 was hailed as some sort of freak when it hit 9 winners in 10 games earlier this season. Unfortunately, it has followed this run with a historical worst run of 9 wins in 36 games at average odds of 7/4.
It is hard to explain how a system can make 16pts in the first half of the season and lose 15pts in the second half of the season.
System 22 is even worse in a sense as it reached a peak of 38pts profit on the 18th January and has since lost 23pts from this peak.
I find it hard to understand what has changed in football from the middle of January! Clearly this period from January to now hasn't followed the statistical 'norm' in the sense my ratings can't quite cope with what is going on at the moment.
I can point to a couple of things (too many draws and terrible performance of low priced away teams this season) as reasons why the ratings haven't performed since Christmas but it isn't really an underlying cause. The effect is is that there have been too many draws and a terrible performance but I'm not sure what has caused it this season.
I've obviously got lots of plans for the summer to look back at my first season and see what has gone right and what has gone wrong. I know which sort of bets I'm comfortable backing and which I'm not comfortable backing and I'll be bringing these changes into the systems from next season. I also know that I need to take more chances on marginal value teams I suspect as too many bets at 7/2-5/1 qualify as marginal value bets but get dropped due to the low probability and increased losing runs these games add to the systems.
Anyway, I could go on and on about things I need to tweak this summer but I need to get to the Summer with the betting bank in one piece and this month is doing its best to destroy that idea!
2 games in midweek, 2 losses. 4 system bets, 4 losses.
One thing that's quite clear now is that whatever worked in the first half of the season on systems 21-23 isn't working in the second half of the season. System 23 was hailed as some sort of freak when it hit 9 winners in 10 games earlier this season. Unfortunately, it has followed this run with a historical worst run of 9 wins in 36 games at average odds of 7/4.
It is hard to explain how a system can make 16pts in the first half of the season and lose 15pts in the second half of the season.
System 22 is even worse in a sense as it reached a peak of 38pts profit on the 18th January and has since lost 23pts from this peak.
I find it hard to understand what has changed in football from the middle of January! Clearly this period from January to now hasn't followed the statistical 'norm' in the sense my ratings can't quite cope with what is going on at the moment.
I can point to a couple of things (too many draws and terrible performance of low priced away teams this season) as reasons why the ratings haven't performed since Christmas but it isn't really an underlying cause. The effect is is that there have been too many draws and a terrible performance but I'm not sure what has caused it this season.
I've obviously got lots of plans for the summer to look back at my first season and see what has gone right and what has gone wrong. I know which sort of bets I'm comfortable backing and which I'm not comfortable backing and I'll be bringing these changes into the systems from next season. I also know that I need to take more chances on marginal value teams I suspect as too many bets at 7/2-5/1 qualify as marginal value bets but get dropped due to the low probability and increased losing runs these games add to the systems.
Anyway, I could go on and on about things I need to tweak this summer but I need to get to the Summer with the betting bank in one piece and this month is doing its best to destroy that idea!
TFA Ratings
I think it’s worth doing a quick post on some of the work that has gone into producing the ratings behind the systems. I’ve steered clear of this on the blog as ultimately, this is my intellectual property and there are a lot of very intelligent people out there who can take what I’ve done and improve upon it I think. I don’t pretend that any of these ideas are original ideas as they aren’t and I’m not ashamed to say that I’ve picked up most of this from other sources in the public domain. However, what I’ve done with the data is different to anything I’ve seen before and therefore, my ratings are unique from that aspect.
Firstly, a bit of background about me to try to fill in how I’ve reached this stage. I went to university to study Mathematics but switched to Financial Economics at the end of my second year. I went on to gain a first class honours degree BSc degree in Financial Economics. My passion was statistical modelling and in particular, regression modelling.
When I went to work for an actuarial pricing team in the insurance industry after graduation, my modelling ability came to the fore and I now manage a small actuarial team within the organisation. I’m very comfortable with SAS, SQL and of course Excel. Data manipulation and statistical modelling is what I do as my day job so to speak.
When I first turned my attention to looking at the football, it involved an initial 6 week process of trying to establish how I would go about building a statistical model from scratch. After a bit of research into what others had done in the past, it became fairly clear that others had put a lot of thought into this and therefore, I didn’t need to build something from nothing. All I had to do was understand what had been done before and improve upon it.
I make no apologies for not referencing my reading material here but I hope you can understand why I don’t want to lead people to trying to understand what I’ve done. In summary, the model would have to:
Take account of different abilities of teams
Take account of the fact that teams at home are stronger
Take account of the fact that more recent form should take precedence over earlier form
When looking at the results of games and performance of teams, account should be taken of the ability of the teams involved
Lastly and most importantly, a team’s ability can be summarised by their ability to attack (score goals) and their ability to defend (concede goals)
I then set about seeing what data I could obtain which would enable me to build a statistical model. Importantly, I had to try to find something that could be updated regularly (after each set of fixtures) and of course, it had to be manageable within Excel preferably.
In summary, I captured data going back to 2002 which shows Home Goals, Away Goals, Home Shots, Home Shots on Target, Away Shots, Away Shots on Target for every game in the leagues I was interested in looking at.
I then spent the next few months trying to build a regression model that would allow me to build a rating algorithm for the football games. For those not familiar with this, it is simply using the historical data I’ve collected to calculate the strength of each team when each game has taken place and then when combining the variables in my model together, this creates an equation which can predict the likely home goals and away goals in any game.
I then plug this into a Poisson distribution equation (again, this is common knowledge amongst football system builders and has nothing to do with my ideas!) and this gives us the likely home/win/draw % in any game after a bit of manipulation.
I ran 100,000 iterations to achieve the optimal weightings for the regression equation and didn’t use the traditional GLM method of minimising least squares. Simply, I didn’t want to backfit the systems so much in that I restricted the number of games massively and ended up with a 100% strike rate over a dozen games. I simply worked it to goal seek a return of circa. 20% across the backfitting of the games and maximise the number of games where possible so I got a large enough data set.
This gave me my first rating algorithm and then it was simply a case of testing this with the results in 2008 and 2009 and ensuring that the returns were in line with the backfitted years. As it turns out, the returns were within a few % points of the earlier ROI and my first rating algorithm was built.
What do I do with it now was the obvious question…..
Clearly, backing every team that appears as value is a profitable method (system 6) but I looked at filtering the selections by the amount of value that the ratings determined was inherent in each selection. This created systems 7,8 and 9 as ultimately, these systems purely separate the bets out by the amount of value the ratings define in each game. The ratings can clearly differentiate between the games that appear as value bets.
Once I had built the first ratings algorithm, it was always going to be the case that a second algorithm would follow I think. Simply, when I was looking at the regression model for the first algorithm, I had lots of ideas about other ways to model this and therefore, I always wanted to go back and look at doing something a bit different by manipulating the data a bit differently.
After a month’s work or so, system 21 was built and using the same idea for systems 7-9, systems 22 and 23 were built.
It was purely by coincidence that systems 6-21 etc. were looked at as it was someone else who pointed out that when the two algorithms pick the same team out as a high value bet (system 22/23 and system 8/9), the results appeared to be exceptional. I looked into it a bit further and as we’ve seen this season, the results that can be achieved by doing this are as good as anything I’ve personally seen for football betting.
Now, people can read the above and make accusations that I’ve copied Dixon/Coles or Fink Tank and so on but at the end of the day, I’m not saying that any of this is my own idea. I’ve taken ideas developed by others before me and improved upon them and hopefully, can outperform the results anyone before me has achieved. That’s my aim.
2 questions people have always asked me about the ratings this season.
Will this method always work? I’ve no idea. I doubt it myself as if I look at the returns over the past 8 seasons, the returns have basically been on a downward trend. Hence, I don’t believe that using data from 2002-2006 can really help me predict the results of games in 2011 as well as it could in 2009 but I can always build new systems using more data as time goes on. Therefore, at the end of each season, I can build new algorithms with an extra season’s data and go through the same process as I’ve done before this season and hopefully, that will keep me ahead of the game and the bookmakers.
Why do my ratings work better than some others which use the same variables? I don’t know the answer to this one. I’m using very similar criteria for bets as other rating models and shots on goal is my main indicator and this is similar to what others use. My advantage is purely from my backfitting/backtesting I think as I’m quite comfortable with regression modelling and how to use it and I figure that’s probably my competitive advantage when it comes to football modelling.
How can we maximise profits and minimise risk using the ratings? Unfortunately, even though we are 80% through this season, I’m not sure I’ve quite got to this stage of the process yet. Saturday was a good example! I just want to get to a stage where I’ve got a proven way of making a return of 10%+ on the football over a season and of course, I want to do it with the highest number of games, lowest betting bank possible. That way, I can maximise profits and minimise the risk.
Anyway, I hope the above gives a flavour of what I’m doing this season. Unfortunately, this season was always going to be an experimental season and being honest, due to the need for me to tweak the algorithms each season with extra data, the systems will never be the same two seasons in a row. However, the base assumptions will stay the same in each algorithm and therefore, the systems should be as profitable one season to the next I hope.
Firstly, a bit of background about me to try to fill in how I’ve reached this stage. I went to university to study Mathematics but switched to Financial Economics at the end of my second year. I went on to gain a first class honours degree BSc degree in Financial Economics. My passion was statistical modelling and in particular, regression modelling.
When I went to work for an actuarial pricing team in the insurance industry after graduation, my modelling ability came to the fore and I now manage a small actuarial team within the organisation. I’m very comfortable with SAS, SQL and of course Excel. Data manipulation and statistical modelling is what I do as my day job so to speak.
When I first turned my attention to looking at the football, it involved an initial 6 week process of trying to establish how I would go about building a statistical model from scratch. After a bit of research into what others had done in the past, it became fairly clear that others had put a lot of thought into this and therefore, I didn’t need to build something from nothing. All I had to do was understand what had been done before and improve upon it.
I make no apologies for not referencing my reading material here but I hope you can understand why I don’t want to lead people to trying to understand what I’ve done. In summary, the model would have to:
Take account of different abilities of teams
Take account of the fact that teams at home are stronger
Take account of the fact that more recent form should take precedence over earlier form
When looking at the results of games and performance of teams, account should be taken of the ability of the teams involved
Lastly and most importantly, a team’s ability can be summarised by their ability to attack (score goals) and their ability to defend (concede goals)
I then set about seeing what data I could obtain which would enable me to build a statistical model. Importantly, I had to try to find something that could be updated regularly (after each set of fixtures) and of course, it had to be manageable within Excel preferably.
In summary, I captured data going back to 2002 which shows Home Goals, Away Goals, Home Shots, Home Shots on Target, Away Shots, Away Shots on Target for every game in the leagues I was interested in looking at.
I then spent the next few months trying to build a regression model that would allow me to build a rating algorithm for the football games. For those not familiar with this, it is simply using the historical data I’ve collected to calculate the strength of each team when each game has taken place and then when combining the variables in my model together, this creates an equation which can predict the likely home goals and away goals in any game.
I then plug this into a Poisson distribution equation (again, this is common knowledge amongst football system builders and has nothing to do with my ideas!) and this gives us the likely home/win/draw % in any game after a bit of manipulation.
I ran 100,000 iterations to achieve the optimal weightings for the regression equation and didn’t use the traditional GLM method of minimising least squares. Simply, I didn’t want to backfit the systems so much in that I restricted the number of games massively and ended up with a 100% strike rate over a dozen games. I simply worked it to goal seek a return of circa. 20% across the backfitting of the games and maximise the number of games where possible so I got a large enough data set.
This gave me my first rating algorithm and then it was simply a case of testing this with the results in 2008 and 2009 and ensuring that the returns were in line with the backfitted years. As it turns out, the returns were within a few % points of the earlier ROI and my first rating algorithm was built.
What do I do with it now was the obvious question…..
Clearly, backing every team that appears as value is a profitable method (system 6) but I looked at filtering the selections by the amount of value that the ratings determined was inherent in each selection. This created systems 7,8 and 9 as ultimately, these systems purely separate the bets out by the amount of value the ratings define in each game. The ratings can clearly differentiate between the games that appear as value bets.
Once I had built the first ratings algorithm, it was always going to be the case that a second algorithm would follow I think. Simply, when I was looking at the regression model for the first algorithm, I had lots of ideas about other ways to model this and therefore, I always wanted to go back and look at doing something a bit different by manipulating the data a bit differently.
After a month’s work or so, system 21 was built and using the same idea for systems 7-9, systems 22 and 23 were built.
It was purely by coincidence that systems 6-21 etc. were looked at as it was someone else who pointed out that when the two algorithms pick the same team out as a high value bet (system 22/23 and system 8/9), the results appeared to be exceptional. I looked into it a bit further and as we’ve seen this season, the results that can be achieved by doing this are as good as anything I’ve personally seen for football betting.
Now, people can read the above and make accusations that I’ve copied Dixon/Coles or Fink Tank and so on but at the end of the day, I’m not saying that any of this is my own idea. I’ve taken ideas developed by others before me and improved upon them and hopefully, can outperform the results anyone before me has achieved. That’s my aim.
2 questions people have always asked me about the ratings this season.
Will this method always work? I’ve no idea. I doubt it myself as if I look at the returns over the past 8 seasons, the returns have basically been on a downward trend. Hence, I don’t believe that using data from 2002-2006 can really help me predict the results of games in 2011 as well as it could in 2009 but I can always build new systems using more data as time goes on. Therefore, at the end of each season, I can build new algorithms with an extra season’s data and go through the same process as I’ve done before this season and hopefully, that will keep me ahead of the game and the bookmakers.
Why do my ratings work better than some others which use the same variables? I don’t know the answer to this one. I’m using very similar criteria for bets as other rating models and shots on goal is my main indicator and this is similar to what others use. My advantage is purely from my backfitting/backtesting I think as I’m quite comfortable with regression modelling and how to use it and I figure that’s probably my competitive advantage when it comes to football modelling.
How can we maximise profits and minimise risk using the ratings? Unfortunately, even though we are 80% through this season, I’m not sure I’ve quite got to this stage of the process yet. Saturday was a good example! I just want to get to a stage where I’ve got a proven way of making a return of 10%+ on the football over a season and of course, I want to do it with the highest number of games, lowest betting bank possible. That way, I can maximise profits and minimise the risk.
Anyway, I hope the above gives a flavour of what I’m doing this season. Unfortunately, this season was always going to be an experimental season and being honest, due to the need for me to tweak the algorithms each season with extra data, the systems will never be the same two seasons in a row. However, the base assumptions will stay the same in each algorithm and therefore, the systems should be as profitable one season to the next I hope.
Wednesday, 6 April 2011
Weekend Massacre
I'm not sure where to start after a weekend like that.
Firstly, apologies for not updating the blog sooner. I've spoken about this before on here but when you have a bad weekend and need to update your results and numerous spreadsheets, it does seem more difficult to find the time. I know some of it is mental but the truth is, I've just been really busy since Saturday night and therefore, I've really struggled with the football this week.
I've not posted the bets for the midweek yet (was only two games and one lost last night!) but I'll just keep updating the blog as I would usually do. Hence, I'll do the midweek results later tonight when the game finishes. It's Dundee Utd to win tonight for anyone interested.
Well, Saturday will live long in the memory. Of the 12 games on Saturday, only 5 draws and sadly, 7 losses. 57 bets, 57 losses for the systems. Sunday improved things slightly with Fulham winning but it made little difference to the weekend. On the Saturday, the 57 bets were split 33 draws and 24 teams losing outright.
If I’m honest, DNB or DC hardly saved the weekend either with DNB losing 24pts and DC losing 14pts. Hard to take after the run the systems have had in March as March managed to recoup the losses from February. Unfortunately, the weekend past has just wiped out nearly all of last month’s profits in one hit.
There was a bit of talk about it in the TFA forum and things just didn’t seem to go the way for any of our bets. Luton were a big bet for everyone following and after going 2-1 up with 10 minutes left and then 3-2 up in the 91st minute, it’s hard to believe they didn’t win the game! For the record, it’s the 9th 3-3 draw this season for the systems with 8 of the teams throwing away a lead to draw. I hit two of these 3-3 draws in one weekend when both teams lost 3-0 leads!
Leicester lost a 94th minute goal to draw 3-3 away to Middlesboro and teams like Dagenham, Leyton Orient, Rushden were leading and somehow lost the game!
Overall, a nightmare weekend all round and it’s the worst day of the season (so far!)
As someone in the TFA forum said on Sunday, this is a marathon and not a sprint but I do feel like when you lose so many points in the first weekend of a month (and it’s the size of all of last month’s profits!), you do feel like it’s going to be a long month…..
Anyway, we’ll see what the remainder of this month brings. Last night wasn’t much better as I had Bournemouth on 3 systems and they lost 1-0 away from home, so it keeps the bad run going. I’ll update the midweek results later hopefully.
I’m conscious of the fact that I’ve promised a post on the ratings and how I find the bets. It’s partly written but I’ve been busy updating the weekend results when I’ve had a chance, so I’ve not had time to get back to it. I will post it when it’s done though.
Here’s the massacre from the weekend below :(
Firstly, apologies for not updating the blog sooner. I've spoken about this before on here but when you have a bad weekend and need to update your results and numerous spreadsheets, it does seem more difficult to find the time. I know some of it is mental but the truth is, I've just been really busy since Saturday night and therefore, I've really struggled with the football this week.
I've not posted the bets for the midweek yet (was only two games and one lost last night!) but I'll just keep updating the blog as I would usually do. Hence, I'll do the midweek results later tonight when the game finishes. It's Dundee Utd to win tonight for anyone interested.
Well, Saturday will live long in the memory. Of the 12 games on Saturday, only 5 draws and sadly, 7 losses. 57 bets, 57 losses for the systems. Sunday improved things slightly with Fulham winning but it made little difference to the weekend. On the Saturday, the 57 bets were split 33 draws and 24 teams losing outright.
If I’m honest, DNB or DC hardly saved the weekend either with DNB losing 24pts and DC losing 14pts. Hard to take after the run the systems have had in March as March managed to recoup the losses from February. Unfortunately, the weekend past has just wiped out nearly all of last month’s profits in one hit.
There was a bit of talk about it in the TFA forum and things just didn’t seem to go the way for any of our bets. Luton were a big bet for everyone following and after going 2-1 up with 10 minutes left and then 3-2 up in the 91st minute, it’s hard to believe they didn’t win the game! For the record, it’s the 9th 3-3 draw this season for the systems with 8 of the teams throwing away a lead to draw. I hit two of these 3-3 draws in one weekend when both teams lost 3-0 leads!
Leicester lost a 94th minute goal to draw 3-3 away to Middlesboro and teams like Dagenham, Leyton Orient, Rushden were leading and somehow lost the game!
Overall, a nightmare weekend all round and it’s the worst day of the season (so far!)
As someone in the TFA forum said on Sunday, this is a marathon and not a sprint but I do feel like when you lose so many points in the first weekend of a month (and it’s the size of all of last month’s profits!), you do feel like it’s going to be a long month…..
Anyway, we’ll see what the remainder of this month brings. Last night wasn’t much better as I had Bournemouth on 3 systems and they lost 1-0 away from home, so it keeps the bad run going. I’ll update the midweek results later hopefully.
I’m conscious of the fact that I’ve promised a post on the ratings and how I find the bets. It’s partly written but I’ve been busy updating the weekend results when I’ve had a chance, so I’ve not had time to get back to it. I will post it when it’s done though.
Here’s the massacre from the weekend below :(
Thursday, 31 March 2011
What will this month bring?
Well, we're starting to approach the end of the season now, so it will be interesting to see if my ratings work as well. The final two months of the season have historically been two of the worst months of the season during backtesting, so it will be interesting to see what happens during the live season.
I've written a review for March and you can read it now. It turned out to be another good month and the systems won back the majority of the losses from February. I can do with a month of consolidation now I think but we'll see what happens.
A busy weekend to get the month started but hopefully we can get off to a flyer.
I'll try to write a post soon on the TFA ratings and how they were developed as someone asked on here earlier this week if my ratings were linked to Fink Tank. I think they'd noticed a correlation between Fink Tank and my ratings which is a fair comment. All will become clear when I do the post I think.
Good luck for those following.
The Football Analyst Bets for 2nd/3rd April
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
03/04/2011 Premiership Fulham v Blackpool Fulham 1.57 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 3.50 WH
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67 Tote
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Bath v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 WH
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Rushden Rushden 2.88 Corals
System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67 Tote
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67 Tote
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
System 9
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
03/04/2011 Premiership Fulham v Blackpool Fulham 1.57 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Barnsley Barnsley 3.66 Pinnacle
02/04/2011 Championship Middlesboro v Leicester Leicester 2.63 SJ
02/04/2011 League 1 Charlton v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.10 VC
02/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67 Tote
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kettering v York York 2.38 SJ
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Rushden Rushden 2.88 Corals
System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
03/04/2011 Premiership Fulham v Blackpool Fulham 1.57 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 Championship Middlesboro v Leicester Leicester 2.63 SJ
02/04/2011 League 1 Charlton v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.10 VC
02/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
System 23
None
System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67 Tote
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Rushden Rushden 2.88 Corals
03/04/2011 Premiership Fulham v Blackpool Fulham 1.57 Ladbrokes
System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
03/04/2011 Premiership Fulham v Blackpool Fulham 1.57 Ladbrokes
System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67 Tote
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67 Tote
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
System 16
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.85
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.60
03/04/2011 Premiership Fulham v Blackpool Fulham 1.53 VC
Any 3,4 and all 5 = 16 Bets
System 17
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00
02/04/2011 League 1 Charlton v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.10
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.85
02/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.60 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets
System 18
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.60 VC
Any 2,3 and all 4 = 11 Bets
System 19
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.60 VC
Any 2,3 and all 4 = 11 Bets
System 20
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.85
02/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.60
03/04/2011 Premiership Fulham v Blackpool Fulham 1.53 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets
I've written a review for March and you can read it now. It turned out to be another good month and the systems won back the majority of the losses from February. I can do with a month of consolidation now I think but we'll see what happens.
A busy weekend to get the month started but hopefully we can get off to a flyer.
I'll try to write a post soon on the TFA ratings and how they were developed as someone asked on here earlier this week if my ratings were linked to Fink Tank. I think they'd noticed a correlation between Fink Tank and my ratings which is a fair comment. All will become clear when I do the post I think.
Good luck for those following.
The Football Analyst Bets for 2nd/3rd April
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
03/04/2011 Premiership Fulham v Blackpool Fulham 1.57 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 3.50 WH
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67 Tote
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Bath v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 WH
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Rushden Rushden 2.88 Corals
System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67 Tote
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67 Tote
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
System 9
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
03/04/2011 Premiership Fulham v Blackpool Fulham 1.57 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Barnsley Barnsley 3.66 Pinnacle
02/04/2011 Championship Middlesboro v Leicester Leicester 2.63 SJ
02/04/2011 League 1 Charlton v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.10 VC
02/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67 Tote
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kettering v York York 2.38 SJ
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Rushden Rushden 2.88 Corals
System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
03/04/2011 Premiership Fulham v Blackpool Fulham 1.57 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 Championship Middlesboro v Leicester Leicester 2.63 SJ
02/04/2011 League 1 Charlton v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.10 VC
02/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
System 23
None
System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67 Tote
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Rushden Rushden 2.88 Corals
03/04/2011 Premiership Fulham v Blackpool Fulham 1.57 Ladbrokes
System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
03/04/2011 Premiership Fulham v Blackpool Fulham 1.57 Ladbrokes
System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67 Tote
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67 Tote
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00 VC
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91 Ladbrokes
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.75 SJ
System 16
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.85
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.60
03/04/2011 Premiership Fulham v Blackpool Fulham 1.53 VC
Any 3,4 and all 5 = 16 Bets
System 17
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00
02/04/2011 League 1 Charlton v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.10
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.85
02/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.60 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets
System 18
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.60 VC
Any 2,3 and all 4 = 11 Bets
System 19
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.91
02/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Hereford Gillingham 1.67
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.60 VC
Any 2,3 and all 4 = 11 Bets
System 20
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
02/04/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Bolton Bolton 3.00
02/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Aston Villa Everton 1.85
02/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20
02/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Luton Luton 2.60
03/04/2011 Premiership Fulham v Blackpool Fulham 1.53 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets
I'm like marmite......
One thing that has been clear to me since I started blogging in 2008 is that people either like me or loathe me.
I'm not quite sure why I split opinion as much as I do but I think it's linked to the fact that I'm a pretty intelligent guy (when I want to be!) and this seems to wind people up I suspect.
Of course, my history is now tarnished with the fact I launched a racing service with a few members off the back of a blog, produced some amazing results during the summer of 2009, grew the service rapidly, hit a bad patch, received endless abuse, stopped the service, gave everyone their money back and moved on from that venture with a clear conscious.
If there was any doubt that I did something wrong, then surely it would be negated by the fact that around 30 subscribers who were members of the service stayed in the forum when the service closed and pay to maintain the upkeep of the forum out of their own pockets. Hence, if I had acted wrongly in any way, I can't imagine this would be the case!
Anyway, over the last few months and as more people have cottoned on to the fact I've been doing something with the football , I've obviously had lots of comments on the blog saying stuff like "when is the tipster service starting G?", "how long before this crashes and burns like TFA?", "Will you give refunds if this goes tits up like TFA did?" blah, blah, blah, blah.
Clearly, there is a lot of bad feeling towards me from people who joined TFA somewhere towards the end and were rightly annoyed when I stopped the service suddenly. The fact some had lost money meant that it was never a good situation for me and stopping a service when things are going badly will always irritate some people as they'll have no opportunity to recoup the recent losses.
I'll never hide from the fact my results with TFA were poor (only achieved an 11% return since it's inception) but as I know only too well, you are only as good as your last few months and mine's were awful!
Having run a tipster service before, I know the stick that goes with it at times and I laugh at some of the comments posted on here after bad days etc. but at the end of the day, the blog is free and I do all this work off my own back with no payment from anyone. Hence, I don't post any rubbish comments as they would detract from the blog and what it is about.
Rowan from TPI pointed out a few comments posted on another blog about me and being honest, it does surprise me a little that people have this strong a feeling towards me from what happened with the racing site. I apologised at the time for stopping the site and not feeling like I could go on but clearly, people have a vendetta against me for what happened.
Some people have asked on here and via email about my plans for next season and I know the guys in the TFA forum are wondering what I'm going to do too. At the moment, I'm not sure and I don't really fancy going down some sort of subscription route as I can do without the endless abuse that comes with it.
Although I've never been a member of another football tipster site, I know of one guy that has produced 4 season's remarkable results and this season, the results have been a little below par. If there was someone that should be immune to criticism, it should be him! Unfortunately, I was saddened to read on the SBC forum that he has been receiving criticism and it does make you wonder how many brain cells some of his members have. I appreciate some might have joined at a peak and would be well down but surely, you judge a service on the long-term and methodology and whether you believe he has an edge. You don't judge someone on a season's results (or even less) when they have 4 season's results before that show a significant edge!
Reading the comments on the other blog this morning, the comments I regularly receive on here and seeing the reaction to another service having a bad spell, it does beg the question why I should continue with the blog or even consider doing something next season outside of my TFA forum as I really don't need the hassle. I'll not make any rash decisions but I do wonder why I would bother with it!
Anyway, another good midweek with the selections. 6 selections, 4 wins, a draw and a loser. The loser was a bit unlucky too as Macclesfield were 2-1 up with 5 minutes left and lost 3-2! A profit of 3.36pts from 6 games.
The systems did a bit better overall though (makes a change this month!) as they were really keen on Accrington and it was nice to see them win very easily. The record of home bets on the more selective systems is quite frightening at times.
Anyway, an overall profit of 10.49pts to round off the month. I'll be back with a monthly review either tonight or tomorrow, so keep an eye out for it.
I'm not quite sure why I split opinion as much as I do but I think it's linked to the fact that I'm a pretty intelligent guy (when I want to be!) and this seems to wind people up I suspect.
Of course, my history is now tarnished with the fact I launched a racing service with a few members off the back of a blog, produced some amazing results during the summer of 2009, grew the service rapidly, hit a bad patch, received endless abuse, stopped the service, gave everyone their money back and moved on from that venture with a clear conscious.
If there was any doubt that I did something wrong, then surely it would be negated by the fact that around 30 subscribers who were members of the service stayed in the forum when the service closed and pay to maintain the upkeep of the forum out of their own pockets. Hence, if I had acted wrongly in any way, I can't imagine this would be the case!
Anyway, over the last few months and as more people have cottoned on to the fact I've been doing something with the football , I've obviously had lots of comments on the blog saying stuff like "when is the tipster service starting G?", "how long before this crashes and burns like TFA?", "Will you give refunds if this goes tits up like TFA did?" blah, blah, blah, blah.
Clearly, there is a lot of bad feeling towards me from people who joined TFA somewhere towards the end and were rightly annoyed when I stopped the service suddenly. The fact some had lost money meant that it was never a good situation for me and stopping a service when things are going badly will always irritate some people as they'll have no opportunity to recoup the recent losses.
I'll never hide from the fact my results with TFA were poor (only achieved an 11% return since it's inception) but as I know only too well, you are only as good as your last few months and mine's were awful!
Having run a tipster service before, I know the stick that goes with it at times and I laugh at some of the comments posted on here after bad days etc. but at the end of the day, the blog is free and I do all this work off my own back with no payment from anyone. Hence, I don't post any rubbish comments as they would detract from the blog and what it is about.
Rowan from TPI pointed out a few comments posted on another blog about me and being honest, it does surprise me a little that people have this strong a feeling towards me from what happened with the racing site. I apologised at the time for stopping the site and not feeling like I could go on but clearly, people have a vendetta against me for what happened.
Some people have asked on here and via email about my plans for next season and I know the guys in the TFA forum are wondering what I'm going to do too. At the moment, I'm not sure and I don't really fancy going down some sort of subscription route as I can do without the endless abuse that comes with it.
Although I've never been a member of another football tipster site, I know of one guy that has produced 4 season's remarkable results and this season, the results have been a little below par. If there was someone that should be immune to criticism, it should be him! Unfortunately, I was saddened to read on the SBC forum that he has been receiving criticism and it does make you wonder how many brain cells some of his members have. I appreciate some might have joined at a peak and would be well down but surely, you judge a service on the long-term and methodology and whether you believe he has an edge. You don't judge someone on a season's results (or even less) when they have 4 season's results before that show a significant edge!
Reading the comments on the other blog this morning, the comments I regularly receive on here and seeing the reaction to another service having a bad spell, it does beg the question why I should continue with the blog or even consider doing something next season outside of my TFA forum as I really don't need the hassle. I'll not make any rash decisions but I do wonder why I would bother with it!
Anyway, another good midweek with the selections. 6 selections, 4 wins, a draw and a loser. The loser was a bit unlucky too as Macclesfield were 2-1 up with 5 minutes left and lost 3-2! A profit of 3.36pts from 6 games.
The systems did a bit better overall though (makes a change this month!) as they were really keen on Accrington and it was nice to see them win very easily. The record of home bets on the more selective systems is quite frightening at times.
Anyway, an overall profit of 10.49pts to round off the month. I'll be back with a monthly review either tonight or tomorrow, so keep an eye out for it.
Monday, 28 March 2011
Accrington again.....
Well, for the second time in a couple of weeks, my results will hinge on Accrington Stanley this midweek. They look a really decent bet to beat Hereford but given the way things are going, it will probably be a draw!
After that, apart from a couple of obvious bets, nothing stands out this midweek and I don't hold out too much hope. The month has been a nightmare for the last couple of weeks, so I look forward to April now I think!
I'll be back on Thursday with the results.
The Football Analyst Bets for 29th-30th March
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
29/03/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Brentford Brentford 3.60 Ladbrokes
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 9
None
System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
29/03/2011 League 2 Port Vale v Lincoln Port Vale 1.83 Ladbrokes
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
30/30/2011 League 2 Burton v Macclesfield Macclesfield 3.40 B365
29/03/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Gateshead Newport 2.10 Ladbrokes
29/03/2011 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Wrexham Wrexham 2.10 B365
System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
29/03/2011 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Wrexham Wrexham 2.10 B365
System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
29/03/2011 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Wrexham Wrexham 2.10 B365
System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 16
None
System 17
None
System 18
None
System 19
None
System 20
None
After that, apart from a couple of obvious bets, nothing stands out this midweek and I don't hold out too much hope. The month has been a nightmare for the last couple of weeks, so I look forward to April now I think!
I'll be back on Thursday with the results.
The Football Analyst Bets for 29th-30th March
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
29/03/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Brentford Brentford 3.60 Ladbrokes
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 9
None
System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
29/03/2011 League 2 Port Vale v Lincoln Port Vale 1.83 Ladbrokes
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
30/30/2011 League 2 Burton v Macclesfield Macclesfield 3.40 B365
29/03/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Gateshead Newport 2.10 Ladbrokes
29/03/2011 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Wrexham Wrexham 2.10 B365
System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
29/03/2011 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Wrexham Wrexham 2.10 B365
System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
29/03/2011 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Wrexham Wrexham 2.10 B365
System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 16
None
System 17
None
System 18
None
System 19
None
System 20
None
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