Firstly, apologies for not updating the blog sooner. I've spoken about this before on here but when you have a bad weekend and need to update your results and numerous spreadsheets, it does seem more difficult to find the time. I know some of it is mental but the truth is, I've just been really busy since Saturday night and therefore, I've really struggled with the football this week.
I've not posted the bets for the midweek yet (was only two games and one lost last night!) but I'll just keep updating the blog as I would usually do. Hence, I'll do the midweek results later tonight when the game finishes. It's Dundee Utd to win tonight for anyone interested.
Well, Saturday will live long in the memory. Of the 12 games on Saturday, only 5 draws and sadly, 7 losses. 57 bets, 57 losses for the systems. Sunday improved things slightly with Fulham winning but it made little difference to the weekend. On the Saturday, the 57 bets were split 33 draws and 24 teams losing outright.
If I’m honest, DNB or DC hardly saved the weekend either with DNB losing 24pts and DC losing 14pts. Hard to take after the run the systems have had in March as March managed to recoup the losses from February. Unfortunately, the weekend past has just wiped out nearly all of last month’s profits in one hit.
There was a bit of talk about it in the TFA forum and things just didn’t seem to go the way for any of our bets. Luton were a big bet for everyone following and after going 2-1 up with 10 minutes left and then 3-2 up in the 91st minute, it’s hard to believe they didn’t win the game! For the record, it’s the 9th 3-3 draw this season for the systems with 8 of the teams throwing away a lead to draw. I hit two of these 3-3 draws in one weekend when both teams lost 3-0 leads!
Leicester lost a 94th minute goal to draw 3-3 away to Middlesboro and teams like Dagenham, Leyton Orient, Rushden were leading and somehow lost the game!
Overall, a nightmare weekend all round and it’s the worst day of the season (so far!)
As someone in the TFA forum said on Sunday, this is a marathon and not a sprint but I do feel like when you lose so many points in the first weekend of a month (and it’s the size of all of last month’s profits!), you do feel like it’s going to be a long month…..
Anyway, we’ll see what the remainder of this month brings. Last night wasn’t much better as I had Bournemouth on 3 systems and they lost 1-0 away from home, so it keeps the bad run going. I’ll update the midweek results later hopefully.
I’m conscious of the fact that I’ve promised a post on the ratings and how I find the bets. It’s partly written but I’ve been busy updating the weekend results when I’ve had a chance, so I’ve not had time to get back to it. I will post it when it’s done though.
Here’s the massacre from the weekend below :(
Hi Graeme,
ReplyDeleteWow - I'm speechless looking at those results. I haven't worked it out but the odds on not one of those results coming in must have been huge.
No matter how down you feel right now continue to plug at it as I'm sure a lot of your reasoning is sound but at the same time have a 'stop' in place as it can sometimes be very hard to know when enough is enough.
All the best,
Mark
Hi Mark.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your comment. Yeah, Saturday was a bit of a disaster mate. I think with all gambling and especially football systems, you need to keep it in perspective though.
Saturday lost 17% of this season's profits, so whilst it was a nightmare, the other 83% profit still remains. ;)
If I compare it to the last couple of season's results (which were backtested and not backfitted), then Saturday lost 3% of the profits the systems have made in this period.
In terms of banks, Saturday lost around 10% of the bank on some systems.
Overall, there is nothing there that is too alarming. Yeah, hitting so many losers in one weekend with no winners doesn't help the mental state but you can't really ignore the previous results either.
In addition, the systems had 18 winning months from March 2009 until Feb 2011 and now it looks like April will be a losing month too. Hence, 2 losing months in 21 months isn't a disaster. The overall ROI in this period of 16% isn't a disaster either although a little below the 20% I want to achieve.
Hopefully this weekend can recoup some of the losses from last Saturday!
Graeme