More of the same in midweek

Just bringing the latest results up to date on the blog.

2 games in midweek, 2 losses. 4 system bets, 4 losses.

One thing that's quite clear now is that whatever worked in the first half of the season on systems 21-23 isn't working in the second half of the season. System 23 was hailed as some sort of freak when it hit 9 winners in 10 games earlier this season. Unfortunately, it has followed this run with a historical worst run of 9 wins in 36 games at average odds of 7/4.

It is hard to explain how a system can make 16pts in the first half of the season and lose 15pts in the second half of the season.

System 22 is even worse in a sense as it reached a peak of 38pts profit on the 18th January and has since lost 23pts from this peak.

I find it hard to understand what has changed in football from the middle of January! Clearly this period from January to now hasn't followed the statistical 'norm' in the sense my ratings can't quite cope with what is going on at the moment.

I can point to a couple of things (too many draws and terrible performance of low priced away teams this season) as reasons why the ratings haven't performed since Christmas but it isn't really an underlying cause. The effect is is that there have been too many draws and a terrible performance but I'm not sure what has caused it this season.

I've obviously got lots of plans for the summer to look back at my first season and see what has gone right and what has gone wrong. I know which sort of bets I'm comfortable backing and which I'm not comfortable backing and I'll be bringing these changes into the systems from next season. I also know that I need to take more chances on marginal value teams I suspect as too many bets at 7/2-5/1 qualify as marginal value bets but get dropped due to the low probability and increased losing runs these games add to the systems.

Anyway, I could go on and on about things I need to tweak this summer but I need to get to the Summer with the betting bank in one piece and this month is doing its best to destroy that idea!