Well, for the second time in a couple of weeks, my results will hinge on Accrington Stanley this midweek. They look a really decent bet to beat Hereford but given the way things are going, it will probably be a draw!
After that, apart from a couple of obvious bets, nothing stands out this midweek and I don't hold out too much hope. The month has been a nightmare for the last couple of weeks, so I look forward to April now I think!
I'll be back on Thursday with the results.
The Football Analyst Bets for 29th-30th March
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
29/03/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Brentford Brentford 3.60 Ladbrokes
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 9
None
System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
29/03/2011 League 2 Port Vale v Lincoln Port Vale 1.83 Ladbrokes
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
30/30/2011 League 2 Burton v Macclesfield Macclesfield 3.40 B365
29/03/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Gateshead Newport 2.10 Ladbrokes
29/03/2011 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Wrexham Wrexham 2.10 B365
System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
29/03/2011 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Wrexham Wrexham 2.10 B365
System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
29/03/2011 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Wrexham Wrexham 2.10 B365
System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
30/30/2011 League 2 Accrington v Hereford Accrington 1.83 VC
System 16
None
System 17
None
System 18
None
System 19
None
System 20
None
Looking at some of your recent selections,they look very similar to the findings from Fink Tank in these games.What role does Fink Tank play in your selection process?
ReplyDeleteNeil
Hi Neil.
ReplyDeleteI could give you a short answer to your question (it is NO by the way, I don't use Fink Tank) but I think it's a fair comment for you to make.
I'm probably long overdue a post about exactly what goes into the rating factors and whether there is some correlation with Fink Tank or even other football rating models. Clearly, there is always going to be some overlap as most people are aware of what the key variables are when it comes to building a football ratings model but I would hope that with my statistical background, I'm in a better place than most to build something that might work well.
I don't pay too much attention to other results in the market but I'm a member of the Secret Betting Club and I know it has been an unusually tough year for football tipsters in general, so I would hope that my ratings and systems have held their own in the market this year even if they have been poor for a couple of months now.
I'll try to knock up a post on the ratings algorithms I'm using (there are two) but it is a busy week as I also want to write my usual month end review this week, so it might be next week before I get around to it mate.
Cheers,
Graeme
Hi Graeme,
ReplyDeleteLooking onto next season and hopefully beyond if you were to make this a paid service.. how much do you think you would charge. Would you consider making it a percentage of winnings?
Thanks very much
Mark
Hi Mark.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your comment. I'm a little surprised that people seem really keen to turn the blog into a paid service! I really haven't given any of this much thought. Having tried tipping professionally before on horseracing (and having to stop due to the pressure and expectation), I'm not exactly keen to go running down the tipster subscription route any time soon without giving it a lot of thought.
In addition, I don't think anyone should read too much into one season's results on the footie. I know the last two seasons backtested results are impressive too but I much prefer to see live results and to win money from live results rather than looking at money I could have won had the systems been running last season!
I can't put figures on what to charge etc. as I've no idea about the demand for this (I don't quite get why people are so interested in something with only 7 months results!) and being honest, I struggle at the moment to find time to do the ratings algorithms, find the bets, put on the bets and then paste them up here and send an email out. Add to that additional admin/emails from a service and I can see me struggling to have a life again which is what happened with the horseracing before.
My personal circumstances dictate that I don't need to do this and it is a hobby for me. Obviously, I put a lot of time and effort into it and therefore, if others are winning money too, it does seem like I should get paid something for helping them but I do this to win money myself first and foremost.
As for a profit share arrangement, it looks very complicated and would bring in additional admin etc. I would possibly consider a donation on the blog I guess as a way to keep the pressure off me. If people aren't paying for it, it would keep pressure off me I suspect.
Being honest, football is different for me as I have to do a lot of work in the background to produce the stuff but there are no judgement calls. If the systems do good/bad, I can't change them. Hence, I'd be being paid for my time and effort and not the results. It's a little bit different to a 'normal' tipster model I suspect. If something changes in football and my models go off the rails (touch wood they don't after 14,000 games!), then to lose money betting on the games myself and then not get paid for doing any work would be difficult to keep going I think!
Anyway, that's all hypothetical Mark and we'll see what happens with the results for the remainder of the season. I can really do with Accrington winning tonight for me as it will make this a really good midweek for my P&L and I can do with one!
Graeme
great results again.started following this month and results been very good.keep it up
ReplyDeleteHi Anonymous. You got lucky starting this month after the February I had!
ReplyDeleteGraeme
Hey Graeme,
ReplyDeleteI think you're way ahead of me, I've been trying to follow the dixon/coles and maher modelling of past results in sas using proc genmod, for example:
proc genmod data=Football;
class Attack Defence / param=ref;
model Goal = HomeAdv Attack Defence/ dist=poisson link=log scale = &average.;
run;
But the bit i get stuck on is how you factor in the time series aspect as described by Dixon (1997) - any helpful hints?
thanks,
James
One advantage of being a manager of a team and no longer being the guy doing the work so to speak James is that I can rely on the expertise of others to help me out. One of my close friends is a professional SAS programmer whereas I'm simply a moderate level user of SAS, so I'd be bullshi*ting if I said I wrote the programs myself to do this!
ReplyDeleteI did look at Proc Genmod in SAS but I couldn't really understand the documentation about it.
I showed your comment to the guy who wrote the programs for me and he said that the Time Series part isn't as tricky as it looks and you should be able to find something on the net about building this part of the process.
Cheers,
Graeme