I’m starting to feel like I’m getting a bit drained with the footie as doing this, on top of working my ass off all day at work isn’t easy. I’m spending most of my lunch hour doing footie stuff and then another few hours in the evening. Part of the issue is that I’m like a dog with a bone at times and I should be pacing myself as it’s a long summer. At this rate, I'll be all set to go in a few weeks and I can't have my first bets until September! :(
It’s slightly more difficult at the moment as it feels like I’m updating 3 places at once. As well as keeping the blog ticking over, I’m keeping the TFA forum guys abreast of any developments with these new systems and plans for next season and I’ve also got a thread on the go in the SBC forum which is where these system 31-33 bets will be proofed first next season (as well as then appearing on the blog!).
I said in my last post that I was slightly disappointed with the results thrown up by system 31 but I also said it was the first step in the process. I can narrow down the number bets by stripping out the lowest value bets that appear on system 31 and this will give us a system which I've called system 32. This contains all the medium and high value bets thrown up by the ratings algorithm.
Well, the results for system 32 are much better and thankfully, I can start to see some light at the end of the tunnel.
Here are the results:
The same observations apply to system 32 as well as system 31 but in summary, the system has achieved a return of around 20% for backing the teams to win and a return of around 14% for backing DNB during backfitting (the first 3 seasons is the best proxy I think). This is a good deal better than system 31 which is good news.
I don’t want to analyse the results too closely before finishing system 33 and posting that but the first really interesting observation I've spotted is the monthly results pattern in 2011. Under all my other systems, January, March and May were profitable last season but February and April were big losses. Feb and April were actually the two worst my systems have ever had due to the high number of draws I seemed to hit, so I was curious how these systems would cope with these months since they are fitted on DNB.
System 31 experienced a profit in Feb and a loss in April I noticed for DNB and traditional H/A betting.
Looking at System 32 now, it has a loss in Feb and a profit in April.
The key point is though, I still can't get away from the fact that February and April aren't good months. In one way, this is disappointing as I was hoping backfitting on DNB would turn a profit in both months but as I've said on the blog a few times now, I really believe February and April are freak months for football betting on these leagues. Hence, seeing these results on system 31 and 32 just reinforce this fact I think.
Anyway, that's another quick update and system 32 is now built. I'll finish system 33 tonight or tomorrow and post that too.
After that, I'll spend time pulling together all the statistics you'd ever want to know about each system and getting the results tracking into the same format I use for my other systems. Once this piece of work is done, I'll share more info on these 3 new systems.
Once I have a wee break, I'll then look at systems such as 8-33 etc. and I'll also think about whether or not it is worth looking at a system such as 6-21-31 which would mean backing teams only when they appear on 3 different algorithms! Having seen the results from backing teams that appear on 2 algorithms, I would think that backing a team that appears on 3 independent ratings algorithms would be very good but then again, there may not be enough bets!
I’m noticing that the readership of the blog is dwindling. I’m guessing this is due to the fact it’s summer and the season is over and most people were reading the blog for the bets each week but feel free to comment or ask questions etc. to try to give me something to feed off. It’s a lonely game writing to myself each time! It’s my 150th post on here too, so I deserve a comment for that if nothing else. :)