Friday, 3 June 2011

And system 32........

I’m starting to feel like I’m getting a bit drained with the footie as doing this, on top of working my ass off all day at work isn’t easy. I’m spending most of my lunch hour doing footie stuff and then another few hours in the evening. Part of the issue is that I’m like a dog with a bone at times and I should be pacing myself as it’s a long summer. At this rate, I'll be all set to go in a few weeks and I can't have my first bets until September! :(

It’s slightly more difficult at the moment as it feels like I’m updating 3 places at once. As well as keeping the blog ticking over, I’m keeping the TFA forum guys abreast of any developments with these new systems and plans for next season and I’ve also got a thread on the go in the SBC forum which is where these system 31-33 bets will be proofed first next season (as well as then appearing on the blog!).

I said in my last post that I was slightly disappointed with the results thrown up by system 31 but I also said it was the first step in the process. I can narrow down the number bets by stripping out the lowest value bets that appear on system 31 and this will give us a system which I've called system 32. This contains all the medium and high value bets thrown up by the ratings algorithm.

Well, the results for system 32 are much better and thankfully, I can start to see some light at the end of the tunnel.

Here are the results:

The same observations apply to system 32 as well as system 31 but in summary, the system has achieved a return of around 20% for backing the teams to win and a return of around 14% for backing DNB during backfitting (the first 3 seasons is the best proxy I think). This is a good deal better than system 31 which is good news.

I don’t want to analyse the results too closely before finishing system 33 and posting that but the first really interesting observation I've spotted is the monthly results pattern in 2011. Under all my other systems, January, March and May were profitable last season but February and April were big losses. Feb and April were actually the two worst my systems have ever had due to the high number of draws I seemed to hit, so I was curious how these systems would cope with these months since they are fitted on DNB.

System 31 experienced a profit in Feb and a loss in April I noticed for DNB and traditional H/A betting.

Looking at System 32 now, it has a loss in Feb and a profit in April.

The key point is though, I still can't get away from the fact that February and April aren't good months. In one way, this is disappointing as I was hoping backfitting on DNB would turn a profit in both months but as I've said on the blog a few times now, I really believe February and April are freak months for football betting on these leagues. Hence, seeing these results on system 31 and 32 just reinforce this fact I think.

Anyway, that's another quick update and system 32 is now built. I'll finish system 33 tonight or tomorrow and post that too.

After that, I'll spend time pulling together all the statistics you'd ever want to know about each system and getting the results tracking into the same format I use for my other systems. Once this piece of work is done, I'll share more info on these 3 new systems.

Once I have a wee break, I'll then look at systems such as 8-33 etc. and I'll also think about whether or not it is worth looking at a system such as 6-21-31 which would mean backing teams only when they appear on 3 different algorithms! Having seen the results from backing teams that appear on 2 algorithms, I would think that backing a team that appears on 3 independent ratings algorithms would be very good but then again, there may not be enough bets!

I’m noticing that the readership of the blog is dwindling. I’m guessing this is due to the fact it’s summer and the season is over and most people were reading the blog for the bets each week but feel free to comment or ask questions etc. to try to give me something to feed off. It’s a lonely game writing to myself each time! It’s my 150th post on here too, so I deserve a comment for that if nothing else. :)


  1. Hi Graeme Dand,

    I follow your blog since march and I must say you're doing a great job !
    Stats, graphs, high quality of reviews - you really are a football analyst :)

    One idea popped my mind:
    Why do you restrict yourself to english leagues only? The value is value in Spain, Italy, and Ireland too ...

    The summer is long and you could do it in a couple of weeks. Then, as your count increases you could be more selective with your systems and so ROI will increase...

    This is just a thought but I'm no analyst - never been trained as such. Guess I'm still searching for the optimum number of selections and I don't know what to use : Profit, ROI, Strike rate or some kind of formula with these three.

  2. Congrats on the 150th post! (lol!).

    Blimey - I've been away for a week and come back to find more systems developed! Not letting the grass grow, are you. This is supposed to be the off season you know!

    I imagine readership will grow again come the new season, mate. I don't think I was alone in being on holiday last week and that'll be the way of it up until the end of August I'd have thought. Now I'm back though, will be following progress with interest, as ever.


  3. Hi G

    Well done on 150 posts.Been reading since the turn of the year and it has been a rollercoaster read at times.The work you put in is second to none and like many reading,really looking forward to following next season.

    I've been reading the forum at SBC too.I think it is over the heads of most there but hopefully some will understand it.

    Keep up the good work.


  4. Congratulations on your sesquicentennial post (it's a real word - check it out!)

  5. Hi Mitch.

    On the question of why I am only looking at the current 6 leagues (5 English, 1 Scottish), it is simply down to not wanting to spread myself too thin.

    When I started out on this project in Jan 2010, I was looking at all the English Leagues down to the Northern/Southern League (10 English Leagues!), the SPL in Scotland and the top leagues in Spain, Italy, France and Germany.

    After a bit of time though, I decided I was spreading myself far too thin and trying to do far too much and had to make a decision to try to specialise. It then became a decision of whether to do the top leagues in the 6 countries or do the 6 British leagues. The lower leagues were too risky with team news etc. playing too big a part.I was pretty indifferent to what route to take but after a bit of work, I could see that my methodology appeared to work better in the 6 British leagues.

    If you are interested in the European leagues, I would direct you to Iain’s blog across at . When I stopped tracking the European leagues, I shared all my workings with Iain and he has improved upon my initial work and managed to achieve a 9% return last season with 5 winning months from 7.

    I don’t have any intention to go looking for more leagues as I can do without the additional workload at the moment.

    As for searching for the optimum number of selections, good luck! I made a bit of a mess of things last season but I hope to do much better this season.


  6. Hi Rowan.

    Nice to have you back mate. Been missing your blog a little but great to hear you enjoyed the break.

    I worry at times that people may not be getting what I’m doing on here and therefore, that might be why people are not reading as much as they used to. You’ll see I’ve started a post in the SBC forum and I’m not sure if people get the stuff I post or not. Time will tell I guess.

    It was always the intention to have a few more systems for next season and these new systems are exciting in the sense they are backfitted to maximise DNB. Still looking at the results at the moment but they look interesting so far.


  7. Hi M.

    Thanks for reading. I do work fairly hard on this at times, so glad it’s appreciated. :)

    You’re comment on the SBC forum is a little harsh. I mentioned it in my reply to Rowan but I do feel that I may be getting to the stage that people may not fully understand what I’m doing. I think people may just look at the results and think WTF is he talking about but hopefully as time goes on and I get more results, people will take notice.

    The reason I’m posting in the SBC forum is that if one bunch of guys can get what I’m about, I expect it to be these guys. Many of the TFA forum guys are/have been members of the SBC and I’m a long standing member too, so I know the place is full of decent guys. I’m hoping to get more interaction with the guys in there once the systems are built, so I look forward to you joining in the conversation. ;)

  8. Cassini, if there was one person who'd post that word, it would have to be you!

    Thanks for the post. I've been trying my best to keep up to date with your posts on your results from last season. Very impressed so far although I appreciate the sample size is fairly small.

    We should start a virtual game between a few of our blogs where we have to put forward our strongest 3 bets every weekend or so (ignoring the point you keep making about setting yourself up to find X number of bets each weekend!) Mines would all flow out from system 8-22 but it would add a bit of spice to next season. :)

    I really enjoyed your recent post on how you use your ELO ratings and Poisson distribution etc. as it's very similar to what I'm doing here in many ways. My starting point for the footie modelling was to read the papers you mentioned in that post, so we're both coming at this from similar angles I think.

    Anyway, enjoy the summer holiday and I look forward to following your footie bets next season. :)