I’ve finished pulling together the data for the final 3 systems that will be live from this season.
In case anyone spots a small discrepancy between the returns I quoted on my last post and the ‘true’ results for systems 6-32,21-31 and 6-21-31, it is simply down to a small change in the odds I used.
When I was building systems 31,32 and 33, I used a list of 9 bookmakers and took the best odds from these at the time of kick-off. However, I noticed last night when I was pulling together system 6-32 that I had small differences on system 32 compared to system 6 for the same team! I then read the blog (yeah, it’s written on here!) and saw that I used a list of 7 bookmakers when building my other systems last Summer. Not a disaster but cutting out 2 bookmakers has meant a loss of around 0.5% return on each new system. If anything, it shows I’m honest with my analysis!
Anyway, the results are all updated. http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/new-systems-for-201112-season.html
I’m now finished with my system building this summer. I WON’T be building another system. You need to draw a line somewhere and I could build systems until the cows come home but at the end of the day, if I have an edge, I don’t need to prove it on 100 systems. I proved it last season with profits on 12 of the 13 systems that were live.
I’ll let the dust settle and then I’ll get into thinking more about next season. I know some people are waiting on hearing my plans for a possible service next season as they’d prefer access to my bets before they appear on the blog. I’m leaning towards doing something down this road but I need to decide whether I want the commitment and possible aggravation that comes with running a service. Having been there before and not really enjoyed it, I’d hate to think it would spoil my enjoyment of the football modelling. It spoiled my enjoyment of horse-racing for a long time!
I also remember that there were some questions that were unanswered from my Q&A post and I’ll need to go back and answer these.
Here’s a few tables with the historical results of these new systems side by side. I know it sometimes helps to look at systems side by side if anyone is thinking of following one of these next season.