Friday, 6 January 2012

Last thing before we move on.....

Just a quick post with a few graphs. Tom posted a comment on my last post asking to see a graph of all the results from last season and this season on the same graph.

The graph is shown below.

It’s quite an interesting graph and as usual, it tends to highlight the need for patience with any system that may have a significant edge. I don’t think there’s too much doubt that I have developed a decent edge with my systems (an ROI of 10.6% across 4,147bets) but you can see a spell of over 2,000 bets where no profit is made at all!

Obviously, at the average odds I play and the fact that Aways account for 70% of the overall number of bets, it isn’t unusual for large spells of unprofitability to occur. 2,000 bets is a bit of a one-off though as it incorporates 3 large losing months in the space of 6 months which is fairly unusual for my systems. Feb-11, Apr-11 and Sep-11 were all bad losing months but if I look back on my full data set back to 2001, there isn’t a period where my systems have had 3 losing months in 6 before. Hence, hopefully it won’t happen again!

On the other hand, although no profit was made over 2,000 bets, the drawdown wasn’t too significant as I said yesterday, so although the systems weren’t making profits, they weren’t suffering huge losses either.

There are two other graphs that are worth showing before I stop looking back and start concentrating on the next 5 months……

Here’s the same graph above but looking at DNB (AH0) profitability instead of backing the teams to win outright. As you can see, there is less 120pts less profit but over the piece, it doesn’t have the same level of volatility that the above graph has.

The last graph is a good graph to end this piece of analysis on. This shows the profitability of the systems for all backtested results and live results. There are now 15,705 games on these systems. 4,147 live proofed results and 11,558 backtested results. There are actually 34,000 results if I include the backfitted results (pre 2006) but I don’t use these for any analysis as I’ve discussed before as they don’t mean anything due to the backfitting.

I think this last graph shows how unexpected the spell was where no profits were made for over 2,000 bets. There have been 1,000+ bet spells 3 or 4 times where no profits have been made and therefore, I don’t get too alarmed when I see spells like this occurring. I obviously got alarmed when we had the 3 losing months out of 6 but now that it has happened once, I’m confident that if it happens again, we can all be confident that the systems will bounce back.

Hopefully we don’t need to worry about that happening again for a long time yet………….

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