Monday, 16 January 2012

Weekend Round Up

At first glance, Saturday looks like a disaster but when you look at the overall P&L and the results, you can’t help but feel it could have been better. The draw reared its ugly head again on some systems and at the end of the day, most of the highest value selections didn’t win, so it was never going to be a good day. However, I think we were maybe one goal away from being an OK day. Whatever way I look at it though, it’s a losing day!

Algorithm one had 18 bets, 4 winners, 7 draws and 7 losers. A loss of 3.68pts for H/A betting and a loss of only 0.57pts if covering the draw using DNB.

Algorithm two also had 18 bets with 4 winners, 6 draws and 8 losers. A loss of 3.68pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.57pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 11 bets. 3 winners, 3 draws and 5 losers. A profit of 1.52pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.10pts for DNB.

Can’t recall too many times this season when algorithm three has outperformed the other two if I’m honest.

The established systems made a loss of 32.84pts for H/A and 12.41pts for DNB. Splitting it by system, it is 16.08pts lost on the combined systems and 16.76pts lost on the single systems.

The new systems made a profit of 7.72pts for H/A and 10.27pts for DNB. The DNB single systems lost 3.48pts, the DNB combined systems won 3.04pts and the SGM systems won 8.16pts.

I suspect it may actually be the first time this season the SGM systems have made more profit than any other systems!

After this weekend, there are 16 systems in profit this season. System 8, TOX, STOY and STOZ are the ones not in profit. Annoyingly, if you look at Jan-12 in isolation, these 4 systems are the ones who are doing pretty well this month!

I’d sort of given up hope on these 4 systems this season if I’m honest. On 1st October, system 8 was 24.4 down from the peak last season. That’s a fairly big drop! It has now recovered to be only 13pts down 38 games later. Hence, it has made a profit of 11.4pts from the last 38 games (30% ROI).

I’ve mentioned this before on the blog but TOX, STOY and STOZ fascinate me in the sense that when my other systems do well, these systems struggle and vice versa. Most systems lost on Saturday but these systems all made profits. These systems have only been in profit once this season but they have a near 30% ROI on Homes this season. The Aways on these systems are easily the worst aways my other systems find! The aways on the other systems are +14% and the Homes are break-even!

It may well be the case that these systems can be used in some way to balance out the variations in the other systems. I run two portfolios and the combined system (6-21 to 8-22) lost badly on Saturday but the other portfolio of new systems covered a chunk of the losses. Ultimately, I bemoaned these other systems last weekend for being rubbish, so I’m not changing my tune yet but at least they didn’t lose this weekend!

Overall, a weekend where those that haven’t been doing well this season following the systems may have actually had an OK day and those that have been following the best systems this season struggled I suspect on Saturday. As always, can’t read too much into one day in isolation.

There are no midweek bets this week, so the next post should be on Friday unless I can find something interesting to write about before then…….

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