Wednesday, 24 October 2012

Red Cards + Draws + Defeats = P&L Loss

As is likely to happen more and more this season, I’m struggling to get the time to update the blog for the results. All my time is being eaten up updating the ratings for all the various leagues in preparation for the next set of bets, so trying to update my results sheets is difficult. I’ll do it as regularly as I can but I’m now missing an update from the weekend and the midweek past.

As the title is hinting at (not very subtle admittedly), it has been a terrible last couple of fixtures.  I think that’s the issue with having so many systems on the go at once. When things go bad, they really go tits up!

The weekend was interesting in the sense the new systems were all over a number of teams, the established systems had fewer bets than I would normally expect and the Euro systems were all over two teams.

It ended up in utter carnage with a crazy number of red cards for my selections. I did a quick check and 25% of the bets ended up with 10 men! That doesn’t help at any time but on a bad weekend, it just makes things worse.

The established systems did a great job in limiting the damage by just not having a lot of bets but the New systems lost a good chunk of the profits they made last month and the Euro systems had a nightmare. I call it a nightmare but it was all down to two games and both games were draws. I think that means the first 12 bets on Systems E2-E6 to E3-E7 in total have all finished draws. Not exactly the dream start I was hoping for with the Euro systems!

Anyway, after that disaster, I was updating the ratings on Sunday night and I had a quick check of the odds available and then took a massive gulp.  My established systems were going to be all over a number of teams as my ratings appeared a good bit out of sync with the bookmaker odds. The new systems were similar and quite quickly, I could tell it was going to be a busy midweek.

So, after the disaster the new systems had at the weekend, I wasn’t exactly licking my lips at the fact they were in agreement with the established systems but surely, a good night was due?

Errr…no. It was actually much, much worse than the weekend as the established systems got caught up in the carnage this time.  I’ve not actually got the P&L from the midweek (I really am behind as I was away down to London early today) but I can tell you it was nearly a wipeout on a busy midweek fixture card which isn’t going to be good news for the P&L.

What does all this mean?  Well, in summary, my established systems are going to have their first losing month since Sep-11, my new systems are going to give back a massive chunk (if not all) of the amazing profits they made last month and the new Euro systems are going to kick off the season with a really bad losing month in their first month live which doesn’t exactly fill me with a great deal of confidence for the rest of the season.

It’s amazing how things can change at this game. 3 weeks ago, the systems had started the season well, everything was rosy and it looked like this game was easy and we were licking our lips for the Euro systems to start so we could beat the bookmakers up more. Making money from the bookmakers was like taking sweeties off a kid. 

I expect a few new subscribers are thinking to themselves, WTF is going on here, this isn’t meant to happen but that’s the great thing about having a couple of seasons behind us now with the systems. I’ve seen it all before and at the end of the day, the systems don’t know they are costing me and a good number of followers a small fortune at the moment, so they’ll just continue punting out the same bets they’ve been punting out for the last couple of seasons.

I guess you could say I was due a bad run as there is only so long you can outrun variance and my systems were giving it a good go with 9 betting months of straight profits but all good things must come to an end.

We’ll see what this weekend brings and I’ll try to update the results over the weekend at some point to get things back up to speed on the blog.


  1. Hi Graeme, I hope all is well with you. Form is temporary and all that but Wednesday carnage like tonight is difficult to avoid for anyone. I got burned for sure. Just a quick request for a blogroll swop if you interested. I have added you to the SBB Columns roll. Cheers. MOB

  2. Bad few days for sure but it will work out fine in the end- keep up the good work Graeme.