Wednesday, 3 October 2012

September 2012 Monthly Review

Unlike the last two seasons, I’ll just be posting the monthly reviews on the main section of the blog. I could add another tab and copy them across at some stage but for the moment, I’ll just keep them on the main blog.

So, this is the review for September 2012 which is the first month of the 2012/13 season. 

Before the start of the season, I had a few discussions with various members around what happened last season in September and the fact that my ratings started the season so badly last season. I had a quick look back at the monthly review for Sep-11 before I started writing this and it really was a horrible month. The established systems lost 86pts from 274 bets which shows how bad it was.

Well, roll on 12 months and things couldn’t be much different. This is AMAZING as I only noticed it tonight but guess how many bets the established systems had this September?  Yes, believe it or not, they had 274 bets!

Last September saw 63 winners from 274 bets and a loss of 86pts. This September saw 115 winners from 274 bets and a profit of 73.2pts.  Amazing to think that September-12 is better by 159.3pts than last September!

Let’s go through each set of systems and see how they have performed this month. Here are the established system results:

It hasn’t been the best start to the season from the first algorithm although it has done a great job in narrowing down the better bets. System 6 has only had 23 winners from 75 and yet, system 7 has filtered this to 11 winners from 17.  This means the games that system 7 has filtered out had only 12 winners from 58 bets!  Pretty good going and another indication of how the filtering approach works with the systems.

The second algorithm has started the season much better and system 21 has managed a profit of 17.6% from 55 bets.  System 22 has again worked well in filtering the bets though with a 57.1% ROI from 15 bets.

Although the single systems are important, the key for most of us following is always the results of the combined systems. As you can see, they have started the season very well.

6-21 has only managed a 12.8% ROI from 51 bets but 6-22 to 8-22 all have ROIs in excess of 50%. In total, the profit for all 6 combined systems is 40.2pts from 104 bets. An ROI of 38.7%. 

Overall, this makes it 9 profitable months in a row for the combined systems. Since inception, a profit of 345.9pts from 2,096 bets. An ROI of 16.5% across over 2,000 bets isn’t a bad performance for a set of football systems!

Here’s the results from the first month of the new systems since they went live this season:

I’m sure there are lots of systems that have started a season well to only go on and end up being disappointing by the time the season ends but boy, has it been some start by these new systems this season.

As most of you know, systems 31-33 were live last season but on their own, they were a little bit lost I think and without a similar set of systems to cross refer with, they were a bit hopeless last season. This season, with 41 and 42 to cross refer them with, I always hoped the new combined systems would do well (even though the backtested results last season were poor!) and so far, I’ve not been disappointed.

A profit of 121.2pts from 388 bets in the first month of the season isn’t a bad start! Cross referring the two sets of new systems appears to be working amazingly well and when you look at 31-42 to 33-42 (the equivalent 5 systems to 6-22 thru to 8-22), the results for the first live month are nothing short of being freaky!

These 5 systems have a combined profit of 69.1pts from 100 bets. Of course, they should be looked at as a set of 6 combined systems, so we only see a profit of 66.8pts from 158 bets. Not bad for a first month is it?

The most interesting thing for me is the fact that algorithm 3 (system 31) and algorithm 4 (system 41) haven’t actually had that great a month. Yes, they have made a profit (7.3% and 2.9%) but to turn that into the returns I’ve just quoted above when filtering the bets is pretty good.

We’ll see what the next 8 months bring but these systems have started as well as I could have dreamed I think!

Here’s the results of the Miscellaneous systems for Sep-12:

This is the second season for these systems after a below par first season. A solid start to the season but nothing as spectacular as the other sets of systems I’m afraid. Overall, a profit of 23pts from 167 bets. It’s actually funny writing this. An ROI of 13.8% for these systems and I’m sounding like it has been a poor start for these systems. I would take this return every month though. ;)

The final set of systems with bets in September were obviously the Under/Over systems:

Although this is the first live season for these two systems, I proofed them on a trial basis last season in the SBC forum. They didn’t really perform that well and so far,  I’ve not seen anything this season to make me think these systems are any good!

The Under system has only hit 2 winners from 13 bets and this has resulted in a loss of 8.9pts. The Over system has hit 7 from 11 correct so far and has a profit of 3.8pts.  Overall, 24 bets and a loss of 5.1pts.  When you think that this is a good month and my ratings have been pretty accurate, it shows how random these results can be at times!

Overall then, we have seen another 853 system bets proofed in September from the TFA systems and a profit generated of 212.3pts. Overall, an ROI of 24.9%.

A decent first month of the season but a long way to go this season. We also need to remember that September was a quiet month with most leagues starting later in the month, so we’ll be looking at more like 1,500-2,000 system bets on average every month I suspect going forward.

I’ll be back with the midweek results when I have some time.

1 comment:

  1. Great start Graeme. My predominantly AH0 portfolio's running at 44% ROI after last night. Really looking forward to seeing how the euro systems get on.