Monday, 29 October 2012

Results Update

Going into the weekend, I was pretty downbeat if I’m honest. It sort of followed on from the last blog post and due to the fact I was behind with my results updating, I was sort of resigned to the fact the systems were having a nightmare month and it would be losses across the board for October.

There are two main reasons for my mood I suspect. Firstly, whether I want to admit it or now, I tend to concentrate solely on a few key systems and when these systems are struggling, I tend to think the ratings are struggling. This is a little unfair as the whole point of having so many bets and systems is to try to smooth the P&L where possible but I can’t help feel that system 7-22 is what a good number of people judge my service on. Hence, no matter the P&L for the month, when 7-22 is struggling, my systems are seen to be struggling.

The second reason is simply the fact that I honestly didn’t know the P&L for the month. As you will have noticed before on the blog, I take great pride in always knowing how the systems are doing and therefore, going into the weekend past, I had absolutely no idea of the P&L on any system. I knew the recent results were shocking, the early part of the month didn’t feel like it was great either and therefore, my confidence wasn’t exactly flying high going into the weekend.

However, as I said on the last blog post, the biggest advantage of following automated systems these days is the fact that the mental strain feels a lot less. I can’t speak for everyone following the systems this season as not everyone will share the same thoughts I have but basically, if I was picking which teams had to appear on each system, after the month I’ve had punting, let’s just say I don’t think I could have been confident I’d have called it correctly! Thankfully, there is no human element involved here and the systems just continue churning out the same bets as they always do, regardless of recent results.

So, how did the weekend pan out?

Well, if I judge it solely on system 7-22 (as tends to be the way I look at things), it was another tough weekend. 1 winner from 5 again and ultimately, system 7-22 is on its biggest drawdown for 12 months. Not a disaster yet by any means but not exactly what I hoped to see from my flagship system in the second month of the season! I’m sure it will return to normality soon. :)

Looking at the results more subjectively, it was a much, much better weekend. The established systems, the new systems, the misc systems, the Under/Over systems and the Euro systems all made profits this weekend. Given the run they were all on going into this weekend, it’s another great example of why you just need to go with the flow at this game and not get too bogged down by the most recent results.

I was particularly pleased to see the Euro systems have their first winning weekend this season. These systems are the baby systems of the family and they haven’t had the best of luck in their first live month with draws (been far too many of them!) but it’s nice to see them ending the month strongly. I was a little premature in saying they’ll start with a losing month and depending on the results in Italy this midweek, these systems could actually start their first month with a profit which would be some going, given the start they had this month!

Overall, a much better weekend and thankfully, the month looks a lot brighter than it did before the weekend. I’ve not had time to analyse the monthly results yet but things aren’t all doom and gloom as I thought a few days ago!

Right, this is an update of two weekends ago, the midweek and then the weekend past.

Established Systems

The results two weekends ago were nowhere near as bad as it was on the other systems. An overall loss of 2.78pts from 52 games was a great performance (compared to other systems) but the wheels fell off in midweek unfortunately.  A 41.55pts loss from 72 bets which was a shocking performance. The systems redeemed themselves a little at the weekend though with a profit of 48.46pts from 109 bets.

Overall, 4.13pts profit from 233 bets. A return of 1.77% may not seem like much but when you think how bad it was before the weekend past, I’ll take it with both hands! If someone had offered me this return on Thursday night, I’d have snapped their hand off.

New Systems

A terrible couple of weeks for these systems although given the first month and a half they had this season, I’m not overly surprised they have hit a tough spell. If they continued like the way they started the season, I’d have rewritten the record books for system results!

The results from two weekends ago were terrible and they didn’t get any better last midweek either.  35.73pts lost from 109 bets at the weekend and then another 41.79pts lost from 86 bets during the week. Things were much better at the weekend past which has helped get things back on track a little. A profit of 44.36pts from 116 bets.

Overall, a loss of 33.16pts from 311 bets.  As I said above, not a great update for these systems but then again, I’m not sure I expected them to continue like they started the season!

Misc Systems

These systems follow the same pattern of the new systems to a great extent.  They dug themselves in a massive hole and managed to recoup much of the losses at the weekend past.

25.50pts lost from 36 bets two weekends ago and 30.50pts lost from 51 bets during the week. Thankfully, a profit of 46.50pts from 49 bets at the weekend has helped reduce the damage considerably this month.

Overall, a loss of 9.50pts from 136 bets. Again, not a great update for these systems but it looked like being much worse before the weekend!

Under/Over Systems

I still dislike these systems. I dislike the market they play in, I dislike the odds overrounds, I dislike the methodology I’m using to derive the bets and most of all, I dislike the results! I’m not sure I’ve ever hid my contempt for these systems but the more I see the bets and results, the more rubbish I think they are!

Anyway, my thoughts aside, they have actually made a small profit since the last update. A profit of 1.18pts from 22 bets. 

Euro Systems

I think the one thing that I should highlight here would be the AH returns. Clearly, when the systems are hitting a fair number of draws, the AH returns will come to the fore and you can definitely see that trend with these European systems.

Two weekends ago, a loss of 13.3pts from 52 bets. However, a much better weekend past and a profit of 53.9pts from 67 games.

Overall, a profit of 40.6pts from 119 bets. The AH returns aren’t much different though and using AH0 for example generated 41pts. Very rare to see AH0 returns so close to outright returns over a large sample of bets as this but it’s a clear indication that the systems are hitting a bit too many draws at the moment!

In summary then, a clear pattern across the piece where two weekends ago was terrible, the last midweek was even worse but the weekend past was a great weekend and brought things back into line with the long-term average!

I make it a profit of 3.25pts from 821 bets since the last update. I’ve said this lots of times before on the blog about the systems but the reason the systems are so good has little to do with their ability to generate profits from winning runs! That’s the easy part of this game. When things are going well, making profits is easy. However, when things aren’t going well, when the ratings are struggling, when things aren’t going your way with late goals, red cards and so on, managing to keep hold of your profits is much more difficult. I’d be lying if I said the ratings and systems have had a good time of it since the last update but at the end of the day, a two week spell isn’t a long time in the course of a season. The fact they have generated a tiny profit in this time is amazing to me, especially when you consider the results before the weekend past!

Yes, I’m sure people are reading this and thinking, jeez, that’s a lot of work for not a lot of return but clearly, no one is following all these systems. Within the subset of systems, there are some systems that have struggled badly over the last two weeks (none more so than system 7-22!) but likewise, there are some systems that have generated decent profits over the same spell. Hence, we’ll see more when we analyse the monthly results later on this week.

I suspect I may well split the monthly report into different blog posts this week. There is nothing to stop me from doing the UK systems now and the Euro systems after the midweek Italian games. I’ll be back in a day or so with the first monthly report.  Have the established systems managed to keep their run going for monthly profits? We’ll see…….

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