Tuesday, 30 April 2013

April 2013 Monthly Review

I think it’s safe to say that given the systems made in excess of 140pts on the 1st of April, it is a fair bit disappointing that by the 30th of April, I’m posting a small profit in this monthly review. I actually spent a little bit of time pulling together my own portfolio’s P&L for March last night as I was thinking it had been a poor month but it has actually been a profitable month. All I knew is I’d lost money for the last couple of weeks overall but this is nothing compared to the money I won at the start of the month. It’s amazing how long a month can feel at times!

So, here goes the review for April-13.

Est Systems

The first time this season when these systems have performed well and the remaining systems have struggled. It was like someone flicked a switch this month and suddenly these ratings started showing glimpses of what they are capable of.

A profit of 82.1pts from 295 bets. The Combined systems had a decent month too, with a profit of 44.6pts from 107 bets.

The ROIs were amazing this month on most of the systems and being honest, the systems had a bit of bad luck this month in my opinion. I was particularly pleased to see 6-21 have a stunning month and a profit of 15.8pts from 60 bets is a great return.

Same comment to 8-21 and 6 winners from 8 bets generated a profit of 9.7pts.

The AH returns for all bets shows that the draw was a pest this month and therefore, this month could have been better if a few of these draws had been wins.

I think these systems have put some of my subscribers through the mill this season at times (myself included) but looking at the overall P&L now for the season, it’s not looking too shabby at all. ;)

New Systems

Was a real month of two halves for these systems. First half was great, second half was rubbish. Overall, add up everything and it’s a profit of 1.9pts from 507 bets.  The combined systems made 13.7pts from 195 bets, so a little better.

Hard to know what went wrong this month. They started the month like they’ve been doing all season and making profits fairly consistently but things dried up late on. Was pleased that they managed to at least post a profit as it keeps the run going of profitable months for these systems (not sure anyone cares about this apart from me tbh!) but hopefully they finish the season a little better.

Misc Systems

A similar story to the New Systems I think. Started the month on fire, looked to be cruising to another very profitable month again but came off the rails a little towards the end. Even so, a profit of 26.6pts from 210 bets is highly acceptable and therefore, I’m not too disappointed.

I made a few jokes last month about the fact the TFA system of the year was definitely likely to be in this bunch of systems but there are a few other systems coming on very strongly as these systems now appear to be treading water. Should be a close call come season end I think.

Euro Systems

I’m really not sure what to make of these systems if I’m honest. A dream month last month, followed up by an absolute disaster of a month this month. The average odds are higher on the Euro systems than the UK systems which probably explains some of the variability but it’s a shame so much of the good work last month has been undone.

Overall, a loss of 83.7pts from 353 bets.  The combined systems weren’t much better, a loss of 37.1pts from 134 bets.

Quite simply, the cause of the loss is seen by the massive losses on E1, E6 and E1-E6. My ratings have had a nightmare month for these leagues. A 26% strike rate is very low given the odds and therefore, with so few winners, it was going to be a poor month.

I’ve said this before but I’m still not convinced about these ratings and more importantly, my systems for these leagues. The results for the season aren’t great after this month and it’s not inconceivable that they struggle to hold onto any profits over the last few weeks. Break-even for these systems would be disappointing I think but it’s not impossible.

We’ll see what next month brings.

Under/Over Systems

A nothing month again (which is a common theme with these systems!) 0.3pts profit from 44 bets. Not sure I can add much. One thing I’d like to track is the P&L by first/second half of the month actually now I think about it. May just be my imagination but I can recall many months where the systems start well, make profits and then give it all away again! Happened again this month.


I think if I was offered this month at the start, I’d have taken it, especially since the Est Systems did much better than all of the other systems. In one way, these systems are the most important to me (been here the longest) as I know many people weight these systems more heavily in their portfolio but that is likely to change after this season, so I guess my attitude should change.

I always try to write these reviews as if I’m reviewing the overall P&L and not the make-up of the P&L and therefore, a profit of 27.2pts from 1,409 bets (1.9% ROI) could never be a good month for TFA as a whole but I think it was probably a little better for most of us following than these results suggest. The losses were on the unproven systems and therefore, hopefully people managed to make a little more profit than the overall results if following a portfolio of systems.

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