Sunday, 13 October 2013

Another small step forward.....

As the title suggests, the systems took another step forward this weekend and the service is now approaching break-even for the season although I appreciate the gap between the best P&L and worst P&L for subscribers could be quite substantial. However, for the umpteenth time this season, the best bets have let the systems down and we had the top 4 Home bets all drawing but two of them lost 1-0 leads late on and it’s typical of the way the season has gone to date. The biggest bet of the weekend lost a 1-0 and 2-1 lead and eventually finished up losing 3-2. When you put all these 5 games together, to say that I’m amazed to be posting the figures below is an understatement.

The weekend was saved by a couple of wins for a Crewe and Tranmere. Both were 6.00+ when I gave the bets and they were picked out by all 4 algorithms which shows how overpriced they were this weekend. Of course, as I say all the time, finding value in a big priced away is one thing, finding a winner is another thing but this weekend, both teams managed to win.  This won’t happen too often but on a weekend when nothing seemed to go right for the systems again, I’m not complaining.

The other highlight this weekend was the Draw systems. The top two draws both finished in draws and 3 of the top 4 draws were successful. I’ve been quite harsh on these systems so far this season but it was nice to see the systems rewarded for their consistency on Saturday. I’ve complained plenty about the luck on the other systems this season but the Draw systems haven’t had much luck go their way either and therefore, to see these systems in profit overall after a very tricky start this season is amazing.

Overall, I reckon about 25% of the systems are in profit now this season which isn’t bad considering it was 0% at the end of last month although I have to again highlight algorithm 3 (system 31). This is becoming a common theme on the blog but this is the best rating algorithm I’ve ever seen and I was astonished it made a tiny profit last month in a very difficult month. It has started this month on fire and is something like 20pts in profit this season already which is amazing considering it has suffered the same amount of bad luck as the other systems! It had Accrington on Saturday for example which wasn’t a popular pick but they lost a late goal to draw 1-1 at odds of 5.00. Hence, it is maybe suffering more bad luck than the other systems and is still making profits!

Anyway, it’s another step forward and after a horrible midweek to start the month (who can forget Ipswich?), things have picked up and the last 3 sets of fixtures have seen nice profits made. Still a long way to go this month but hopefully now my ratings have settled down, things will continue to improve. We’ll see what happens.

No midweek bets this weekend, so next results update will be after next weekend.

Est Systems

24 winners from 67 bets and a profit of 29pts. Both algorithms did brilliant but the filtering of the systems didn’t work at all (which is not the first time I’ve said that this season!). System 6 made a profit of 9.9pts from 18 bets and system 21 made a profit of 14.2pts from 16 bets. Great returns but it didn’t make its way down to systems 7,8 or 22 unfortunately.

System 6-21 made a profit of 10.7pts from 15 bets but the other combined systems did a great job of filtering out the winners!

Overall, it’s hard to knock the performance of the systems but the luck factor this season is really impacting the more selective systems. If you are only having 100 bets a season, then to suffer the luck I’ve had this season means I suspect it will be very difficult for the higher combined systems to get near the historical returns unless we start getting some breaks on these systems.

New Systems

The draw was a real issue on these systems although the story is similar to the Est Systems whereby the higher systems filtered out the winners again. An overall profit of 22.8pts from 123 bets is a decent return but when you see the base ratings made 10.4pts profit on each algorithm from 22 bets each, you have to wonder how more profits weren’t made on more systems. The draw was to blame I’m afraid and the draw really impacted these systems.

Things just don’t seem to be able to click this season like the last few seasons but it’s early days and when the systems click, profits can be made quickly. Hopefully this happens sooner rather than later.

Misc Systems

A great return here this weekend. A profit of 39.4pts from 73 bets. System 21-31 was the star with a profit of 14.2pts from 16 bets. 6-32 made a loss which again is a function of the fact 32 filtered out the winners from system 31 unfortunately. STOZ also underperformed this weekend considering system 31 had a great weekend. Unfortunately, the SGM didn’t agree with Tranmere as a bet based on the historical data and results. Shame really as it stopped the 3 SGM systems from having a really good weekend like some of the other systems.

Draw Systems

This is more like it. 19 winners from 27 bets and a profit of 39.22pts. Interestingly, one of the other draws was in a game where I got a late winner on another system, so I guess it could have been slightly better on these systems.

This is the first week I’ve backed the draws and actually thought that I was backing something I thought I would win and so it proved. Of course, it could have ended up with both losing but as I said before on the blog, for me, it’s about being able to see I’m getting value. Probably helped that Skeeve picked the draw in one of the games, so that at least showed my ratings weren’t too bad and I think it’s the first time I’ve actually thought that these systems were half decent this season!

Long way to go though but I’m more interested in these systems and hopefully they can build on this. I appreciate the losing runs are longer and with no short prices, it’s not like following another system which has a mix of Homes and Aways as even when the Aways are being volatile, the Homes can steady the ship. 

Under-Over Systems

I was surprised there weren't more bets this weekend but every possible bet that was thrown up was below minimum odds apart from 2. Thankfully, the 2 that qualified were both winners, so it helps to recoup some of the losses this month. A profit of 2.12pts from 2pts staked.

Overall, another really good update although I suspect a number of subscribers are reading this and wondering “what if”. The biggest bets didn’t cover themselves in glory but on the whole, they were very unlucky again and if we keep knocking on the door, surely it will open sooner rather than later.

A profit of 132pts from 292pts staked. 

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