Tuesday, 8 October 2013

Results Update

I can’t recall too many results updates over the past 4 years where I’ve gone from such a low to such a high in a short space of time but it has been a mad week. After arguably the worst month the systems have ever had, they followed it up last midweek with maybe the most frustrating set of results I’ve had in a single day. The highlight had to be the biggest midweek bet Ipswich throwing away a 4-1 lead at half-time against a Derby side who were absolutely played off the park. Given the way my luck had went over the preceding 3 or 4 weeks, I wasn’t totally surprised when it finished 4-4.

Nearly all the other bets that night finished a draw and I didn’t hit a single winner. Sheff Wed were the biggest priced away side playing and they led until the 89th minute against a poor Brighton side and then conceded an equaliser. The other teams battered the opposing teams in terms of shots on goal, shots on target and yet, couldn’t find a way to win and ultimately, I had followed up the worst month with a complete wipe-out. To say I was at a low point was an understatement. Over 30% of my betting bank gone, approaching a near 5 figure loss on the season (which is pretty bad after 5 weeks of betting!) and I then received a few typical emails from new subscribers who only joined in the Summer which I’ve come to expect over the years at this game.  It’s always newbies who jump ship first and I had the same thing last season when the systems were break-even until Christmas and I’ve had it again this season.

3 people left the service before the weekend after various email exchanges and therefore, when I updated the ratings after midweek and looked at some of the prices of the selections thrown up for the weekend, I wasn’t exactly in a buoyant mood when I sent out the email last Thursday. It was another really tough looking weekend with plenty of Away bets thrown up at decent odds and it wasn’t impossible that I’d be looking at another tough day.

First bet on Friday night lost, first bet on Saturday lost in an early kick-off, 30pts down for the systems and the bets hadn’t even started yet. The total outlay for the systems was 320 bets, so 290 bets left to recover the 30pts lost and hopefully some profit! How did Saturday go?

Well, it went pretty well if truth be told. Well, 264pts staked on Saturday and a profit of 268pts! Not bad. Sunday took the shine off it a little as Blackburn were the biggest bet this weekend but they managed to go 1-0 up, lose a man, concede a goal with 25 mins left, hold Wigan at 1-1 until injury time and then lose 2-1! Nightmare for anyone following AH0 as it’s like losing a winner when your team has 10 men I think.

Anyway, not going to let that ruin a good weekend and overall, it was a massive profit at the weekend.  Of course, let’s not get too carried away and when you put it against the losses suffered in September and then the midweek games last week, it only makes a dent in the losses but it feels much better mentally to have made my first real big profit this season. Hard to describe the feeling you get, checking football scores, counting up quickly in your head how much you’ve won or lost and then always coming up with a loss that’s in 4 figures. That’s happened every time this season I’ve had a decent number of bets, so it’s not a nice feeling. On Saturday though, I couldn’t get my laptop out quick enough to count up how much I’d won back. :)

Before I get onto the results below, I’m sure people wonder what my thoughts are concerning the 3 people who left the service with massive losses. Well, on one hand, I do feel sorry for them and their timing was horrible and it’s an unfortunate situation for them but on the other hand, why join the service if you are going to bail at the first bad run? After the midweek results with most of the games finishing all square, I was being judged less than 200 games I’d rated this season and anyone backing the Draw/Aways was making a substantial loss. Hence, how can you judge someone on this? It was the worst trading conditions I’d experienced since I started out at this football betting malarkey but at the end of the day, I can only play the cards that I’m dealt. If all the teams I pick decide to play shi* and lose, it’s not my fault. Blame the systems if you want, blame the fact we’ve been unlucky but don’t blame me. I’m a middle man here, I update the ratings, find the system bets and give them out.

I do find it slightly amusing that every person that has ever left the service has basically lost out on a lot of profit but maybe one day, when people jump ship, the service won’t recover and they’ll save themselves a fortune whilst we all lose our betting banks. However, I do question why they join a service and then jump ship when losses reach 30% or 40% as at the end of the day, if you believe in the service and the ratings, you had to believe we’d recover. Yes, we all have doubts (I doubt the systems every season at some point!) but you either believe or you don’t believe. Clearly, some join and don’t believe which is unfortunate for them and it can only end in tears I’m afraid.

I laughed to myself whilst reading a post Matthew wrote here http://sportingvalue.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/augustseptember-summary.html which was his monthly review of his portfolio. This is his first real season of following TFA although he was a member last season. After posting the monthly results (which showed TFA was the worst by far in his portfolio and had lost 44% of the betting bank in 3 weeks!), he then went onto give a confidence rating for each tipster. I started to question Matthew’s sanity at this point when I saw he gave the service his highest confidence rating but I suspect he’s not alone in thinking along these lines. This is my 4th season betting on football and this season, I’ve branched out and added a 2nd service to my portfolio. First time I’ve come across another service I trust and that’s after watching his bets for 2 seasons as he’s my main competitor in the market!

One accusation that has been thrown my way over the Summer has been the fact I’m arrogant when it comes to football betting and football systems but at the end of the day, my confidence comes from the results. Yes, I can’t guarantee what the future will hold and I still may end up losing my betting bank along with everyone else following the systems this season but if I do so, I will not be ashamed of it. My rating algorithms are currently the best rating algorithms for the UK leagues in the market. My systems have proven to be the best systems in these UK leagues over the past few seasons. None of this guarantees the future results but the best guide to what happens next tends to be what has happened in the past at betting and therefore, that’s why me, Matthew and many others have this confidence in the systems turning around this season.

Of course, having written all of the above, the next few weeks are guaranteed to be rubbish, we’ll be in a worse position than before the weekend and people will be jumping the ship as if it’s the Titanic but as I said in the email a few weeks back, I’m happy to go down with the systems this season. If others believe and have staked appropriately, they should be happy to do so too. It’s why this is called gambling!

Right, enough of my bullshi*, here’s the results update.

Est Systems

38 winners from 87 bets and a profit of 33.81pts. AH returns were much lower and clearly, the more draw coverage, the lower the returns. Helps to rebalance the P&L a little after the start this season! Nice to see system 7-21 recoup some losses. This season, from 25 bets now, it has hit 7 winners, 11 draws and only 7 losers. The system has been hit by draws more than most but Saturday helped a little and hopefully it can push on from this now.

New Systems

71 winners from 157 bets and a profit of 66.94pts. AH were again much lower and therefore, you can see the difference it makes to the returns when your selection wins rather than draws! I talked about this in the monthly review but last month, when the whole world appeared to be falling down around me with the systems, system 31 (algorithm 3) somehow managed to make a profit. I said in the review I had no idea how it managed it given the poor performance of all other algorithms but when you see the returns after this update now, it looks like it’s business as usual for this algorithm this season. A nice profit of 11% from 112 bets this season. Only algorithm in profit but it’s a start!

Misc Systems

34 winners from 71 bets and a profit of 44.21pts. It has been a slow start this season for systems TOX, STOY and STOZ and even after the weekend, these 3 systems trail the other 3 systems a little. However, evidence definitely points to these 3 systems being stronger than the other 3 and therefore, I’d be disappointed if they didn’t turn around this deficit sooner, rather than later.

Draw Systems

I feel like these systems are bubbling away, waiting to burst into action at any moment but so far, it hasn’t happened. A 3pt profit from 70 bets. The overall strike rate is down 10% points on historical seasons for these systems but the overall draw strike rate has been lower this season for the games I’ve rated, so not too surprised with these systems so far. If backing all draws is losing 20% (will be lower now after the midweek and weekend), then making a profit is difficult. My rating algorithms are down 15% and 18% and this is in line with the losses we’ve seen so far on draws. Hopefully when we see the draw strike rate creep up as the season progresses, these systems manage to catch the draws!

Under-Over Systems

Not sure what it is with these damn systems but every time my other systems do well, these systems do rubbish! Last month, they were the only systems in deficit, this month, they are the only systems in a loss making position!

A loss of 4.48pts from 19 bets.

Overall, a good results update and the first real set of decent results this season. There have been many months where the systems start well and then hit a bad patch, so there is a long way to go before we see how the month turns out but hopefully this is the start of something a little better than we’ve seen so far this season. 


  1. there must have been some good results in the lower down leagues, i only back selections from the top 3 leagues and it was a slight down weekend for me to add to the rest so far.
    oh well, i'm sure it will turn around soon!
    guess it shows there can be massive differences between punters on how they follow your systems.
    lets up the upward curve keeps going!

  2. Hi RG.

    Thanks for the comment. As you know, with members all using the systems and ratings and doing their own thing, my updates on results won’t mean the same thing to everyone. It’s quite interesting to see all the different approaches though and I think I know of one other member who doesn’t like to bet on lower leagues in England, not because of account restrictions or odds availability but simply because they have no interest in betting on teams they don’t know anything about!

    In terms of the results so far this season, it’s hard for me to know how everyone is doing. My gut feeling is:

    Anyone using AH0 is doing worse than average as backing Homes outright is profitable so far, so covering draws whilst losing money backing aways has to be worse than average
    Anyone who is following multiple systems is doing worse than average if average is following 1 or 2 systems (depends what systems of course!)
    Anyone who has tried to cherry pick leagues or types of bets to play could be doing great or bad depending on what they’ve done! In your situation, you have basically missed off the best performing leagues this season so far in League 2,Bsq Prem and SPL. Then again, historically, these are the 3 weakest leagues I think overall, so maybe a correction is due or maybe this is the correction we are seeing for the last 3 seasons!

    The most interesting aspect for me this season has to be League Two Aways. I doubt anything splits the subscriber base as much as this. I’ve lost a fortune backing League Two Aways over the last 3 seasons (as have many others I’m sure!) and I continued with them again this season in my own portfolio. I personally had it in my head that if they were loss making for 5 years straight, I’d probably drop the bets from the service, never mind my portfolio as clearly something doesn’t work. So far this season, the results have been phenomenal and I’ve gone some way to recouping what I’ve lost over the last few seasons backing these bets!

    How will the next 8 months pan out? No idea but hopefully if the overall ratings continue to be profitable, everyone will be happy. I guess my worst case scenario is that overall, the ratings do well but due to the fact people may have missed out League Two Aways or SPL bets or only used AH on aways, then they make a loss but that’s the risk you take with trying to cherry pick the better bets I guess.



    PS. I was actually really surprised in midweek when someone sent me a results sheet to update some pivots for them and I saw they were in profit this season! I didn’t think anyone would be in that scenario, so I guess it goes to show the variance within the subscriber base. I’m looking forward to getting back to break-even, never mind getting in profit!