Thursday, 10 October 2013

Midweek Results Update

Managed to find time this afternoon to update the midweek results, so this post covers these results. The midweek concerned 4 bets really, 2 win bets and 2 draws. The systems got 1 from 2 correct in both categories and therefore, another small profit was achieved. The next big test comes this weekend as there are a lot of big priced away bets thrown up as usual, so it’s likely to be a bit hit and miss again but we’ll see what happens.

Est Systems

A profit of 4.5pts after 5 winners from 13 bets. The other main bet was a draw, so that’s why the AH returns look in line with the overall returns.

New Systems

8 winners from 18 bets and a profit of 10pts. The 4th rating algorithm found small value in a number of other games from the first 3 algorithms (nothing new there as it has a much higher turnover) but all these teams lost. That explains why system 41 performed poorly.

Misc Systems

3 winners from 8 bets and a small profit of 2.5pts.

Draw Systems

8 winners from 16 here and a profit of 11.84pts. Slowly starting to warm to the draw systems but it really is a slow process. If we take the 2 games in midweek, the other game was a 1-0 win for the Away side but the Home side missed a penalty to bring it back to 1-1! Frustrating really as at these sort of odds, it’s an 8pt loss rather than a 20pt win. Had a number of these swings on the draw systems already this season and when I see we’re basically one multiple system win away from break-even, it’s slightly frustrating. As things are, I’m actually a couple of points down which is not a lot at all considering the fact I’ve had 3 or 4 games where it could have been a win rather than a loss.  Remains early days but I can see some potential now which is a step forward from where I was last month.

Under-Over Systems

These systems have reverted back to the same as last season. Saying that, one of the Under games was 1-1 at 92 mins and finished 2-2 (was one of the 2 outright selections), so that’s a little unlucky but seen it so many times with these systems over the last few seasons. A loss of 0.78pts.

Overall, a profit of 28pts from 58 bets. Another very small step forward and off the back of the weekend, it’s a decent consolidation.

It’s difficult to get away from the short-term nature of this game at the moment as until I get back to break-even, it sort of feels like we’re one bad set of fixtures away from the next disaster but it’s just linked to the fact the downturn this season has occurred before any profit was made. Every season, a losing streak has occurred and this one we suffered is no different apart from the fact we didn’t have the cushion of profits to fall back on.

This weekend will either get us back in the black I suspect or put us deeper into the red, so let’s see how it goes. In season’s gone past, this blog probably wasn’t the most interesting to read as it was simply me posting profits most of the time and talking about how great the systems are doing! 

Never had as much exposure as this before and the trials and tribulations of TFA are being discussed on Twitter and other blogs consistently at the moment. Quite enjoying it in a strange way as this game is lonely at times and the forum I used to use is basically gone, so I’m enjoying the banter on Twitter and enjoying seeing other thoughts. Many are experiencing the same thoughts and same ups and downs as me and it does feel like we’re one big family at TFA at the moment. Admittedly, we’d all be close to living on the street as we’re all skint but it’s nice to share the pain and pleasure of betting on the systems. This season has already been more interesting for me than the last 3 when making money seemed like taking candy off a baby! :)

Right, best get on with the email for tonight’s bets. Next update will be after the weekend. 

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