Managed to find time this afternoon to update the midweek
results, so this post covers these results. The midweek concerned 4 bets
really, 2 win bets and 2 draws. The systems got 1 from 2 correct in both
categories and therefore, another small profit was achieved. The next big test
comes this weekend as there are a lot of big priced away bets thrown up as
usual, so it’s likely to be a bit hit and miss again but we’ll see what
happens.
Est Systems
A profit of 4.5pts after 5 winners from 13 bets. The
other main bet was a draw, so that’s why the AH returns look in line with the
overall returns.
New Systems
8 winners from 18 bets and a profit of 10pts. The 4th
rating algorithm found small value in a number of other games from the first 3
algorithms (nothing new there as it has a much higher turnover) but all these
teams lost. That explains why system 41 performed poorly.
Misc Systems
3 winners from 8 bets and a small profit of 2.5pts.
Draw Systems
8 winners from 16 here and a profit of 11.84pts. Slowly
starting to warm to the draw systems but it really is a slow process. If we
take the 2 games in midweek, the other game was a 1-0 win for the Away side but
the Home side missed a penalty to bring it back to 1-1! Frustrating really as
at these sort of odds, it’s an 8pt loss rather than a 20pt win. Had a number of
these swings on the draw systems already this season and when I see we’re
basically one multiple system win away from break-even, it’s slightly
frustrating. As things are, I’m actually a couple of points down which is not a
lot at all considering the fact I’ve had 3 or 4 games where it could have been
a win rather than a loss. Remains early days
but I can see some potential now which is a step forward from where I was last
month.
Under-Over
Systems
These systems have reverted back to the same as last season.
Saying that, one of the Under games was 1-1 at 92 mins and finished 2-2 (was
one of the 2 outright selections), so that’s a little unlucky but seen it so
many times with these systems over the last few seasons. A loss of 0.78pts.
Overall, a profit of 28pts from 58 bets. Another very
small step forward and off the back of the weekend, it’s a decent
consolidation.
It’s difficult to get away from the short-term nature of
this game at the moment as until I get back to break-even, it sort of feels
like we’re one bad set of fixtures away from the next disaster but it’s just
linked to the fact the downturn this season has occurred before any profit was
made. Every season, a losing streak has occurred and this one we suffered is no
different apart from the fact we didn’t have the cushion of profits to fall
back on.
This weekend will either get us back in the black I
suspect or put us deeper into the red, so let’s see how it goes. In season’s
gone past, this blog probably wasn’t the most interesting to read as it was
simply me posting profits most of the time and talking about how great the
systems are doing!
Never had as much exposure as this before and the trials and
tribulations of TFA are being discussed on Twitter and other blogs consistently
at the moment. Quite enjoying it in a strange way as this game is lonely at
times and the forum I used to use is basically gone, so I’m enjoying the banter
on Twitter and enjoying seeing other thoughts. Many are experiencing the same
thoughts and same ups and downs as me and it does feel like we’re one big
family at TFA at the moment. Admittedly, we’d all be close to living on the
street as we’re all skint but it’s nice to share the pain and pleasure of
betting on the systems. This season has already been more interesting for me
than the last 3 when making money seemed like taking candy off a baby! :)
Right, best get on with the email for tonight’s bets.
Next update will be after the weekend.
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