Wednesday, 23 October 2013

A Game of Survival

I think the below table maybe helps to keep perspective on the season so far although I suspect anyone following a portfolio of systems this season are scratching their head! The worst performing system this season has lost 35.2% of its betting bank. Given the current run of the systems, it’s amazing that only one system has lost over 1/3 of it’s betting bank.

However, for those that understand the service, you will be noticing that many of the best performing systems historically in terms of ROI are towards the top of the table and have been letting us down this season. Hence, the strongest bets historically haven’t been winning this season and that ultimately explains why so many systems are in a loss making situation.

The issue for myself (lost 48% of my bank this season) and many others will be the fact that we are playing on the fact that historically, many of the better systems have never experienced this sort of run all at the same time and therefore, anyone relying on leverage in their portfolio (which as we know, increases the risk but also the potential return) is probably in a much worse state than any individual system.

I think the key for all of us now is to stay in the game.  Losing our betting bank when no system is anywhere near losing 50% of its betting bank is criminal and if we can survive this weekend, this month, next month and hopefully this season, I expect we will all view these systems in a different way going forward.

For the next few weeks, this game is now about survival and we’ll need to see what happens. I’m kicking myself already looking at the table of results by system and I expect I won’t be alone…….

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