Thursday, 24 April 2014

Latest April Results

Before I get on with the recent results update, a quick thanks to Dmitri who has taken the time and effort to write a fair bit in the comments section on a recent post regarding the flaws with using a level staking approach on multiple bets which are correlated. Dmitri’s thoughts were very similar to those Tage shared with subscribers earlier this season and it’s always nice when subscribers take the time to try to use their area of expertise to help others. Thanks also to Diego for his comments.

I very much doubt whether any football systems have ever received as much press as TFA has got this season and I guess my only wish was that I had this amount of press during the first 3 seasons when things were going well! Stewboss joked on Twitter this week that I must be loving the publicity I’m getting through Steve’s blog this season (he was being sarcastic!) but I actually think this season will change the way people think about TFA. I always think you learn in life when things aren’t going as smoothly as you hoped and I feel like I’ve learnt more this season than in the previous 3 seasons combined. You never learn when you win too easily.

I think Steve’s predicament this season shows what can happen if you follow a highly correlated portfolio of bets and ultimately, Steve’s losses should be a lesson to everyone about what can happen with portfolio betting if not applied correctly. I think one thing that is clear is that lumping a set of TFA systems together in a portfolio and placing 1pt on each bet isn’t an optimal solution but to be honest, it never has been.

When every system has been profitable historically, the more systems you had in your portfolio, the higher the return on capital as the risk was higher and therefore, it was always about taking a massive risk for a massive return. I think most people realised this (Steve certainly did) and therefore, I don’t think this portfolio strategy was ever about managing risk or optimising risk and return. It was about trying to push things are far as you can go in terms of return on capital and ultimately, the strategy has crashed and burned this season for Steve (and myself to a small degree).  I know others are in a similar boat.

I think those who have had a fair few pops at the service this season have been quick to point to Steve’s losses and say the ratings are rubbish but as always, it’s never that easy. After this weekend past, all 8 algorithms are in profit this season for the first time at once I think this season. Admittedly, a couple of them are nowhere near the profits I expected this season but at the end of the day, to be able to make profits over hundreds of unique bets on each algorithm isn’t easy. Given the rollercoaster this season, unlikely they’ll all be in profit at season end I suspect but even so, it’s not a disaster.

I always work on the assumption that a profitable algorithm is a great base to start from and therefore, it’s hard to be too upset with myself this season. Admittedly, this season has been really tough and the fact we’re in the last few weeks of the season and all 8 algorithms are only now in profit says a helluva lot about the season.

I’m not wanting to start drawing too many conclusions as I’ll wait until season end before looking at the season but anyone following the service will know that it has been a really tough season for the areas I play in (mainly higher average odds aways and homes) and throw in the number of teams who have thrown away 2 goal leads late on in games (feels more than a fair number of bad beats this season) and the fact that all 8 algorithms have a chance of ending the season in profit is actually quite positive.

This season has been a disaster, a nightmare, the worst season ever, the service has been ridiculed, I’ve taken an amazing amount of shi* from subscribers early in the season and then again in March, I’ve struggled to make money myself this season and yet, all 8 rating algorithms may be profitable this season.

That’s quite a sobering thought. If the ratings can make money this season, what can they do in a more normal season? Oh yeah, we already know that answer, look at the last 3 seasons…….

Anyway, here’s the results update for the Easter programme.

Est Systems

A profit of 25.25pts from 83 bets.  Another decent update for these systems and having been loss making all season, there is a little bit of hope these systems could reach break-even if we get another couple of good weeks!

New Systems

A profit of 61.95pts from 178 bets. These systems have a long way to go before they recover from the mess last month they got themselves in but it’s another nice set of results.

I gave system 31 a little bit of stick last month for having its worst ever month on record but boy, has this system bounced back this month. A profit of 25.94pts from 33 bets for this update. With one weekend left, this algorithm has a chance of achieving its best ever monthly profit! Now that would be a good comeback……

Misc Systems

A profit of 33.77pts from 110 bets.  I’ve given STOZ a lot of stick this season but it’s like someone has flicked a switch on this system this month. A profit of 16.08pts from 26 bets in this update. Last month was the worst month ever for STOZ. If it can make a profit this weekend, it can possibly be the best month the system has ever had! Can it do it?

Draw Systems

A loss of 21.72pts from 169 bets. Only 43 winners. I said this on Twitter earlier this week but this is a nightmare month for those backing the draw in the UK leagues. The strike rate is 20% at the moment this month and therefore, I think these systems have done great this update to only lose 22pts. This has been the toughest season for draws over the last 4 seasons and therefore, I think the draw systems this season have outperformed the underlying results by a fair way. If the draw systems can do this in a tough season, what would happen in a good season for draws?

Euro Systems

A loss of 1pt from 72 bets. No real damage done but the ratings have been doing OK. The filtering of the systems has been difficult (same as the UK systems tbh this season) and I guess it’s a step forward that the ratings have done OK this season. The Euro leagues remain a bit of a mystery to me and I’m seriously thinking that having a go at draw systems in the Euro leagues is probably the next logical step for me but I’ll give it some thought during the Summer. I like the Euro bets as it gives me interest in the Euro leagues each weekend but as always, I’m not really interested in having bets for the sake of it. I need to have an edge and at the moment, I’m not convinced these ratings have much of an edge in the Euro leagues. Maybe I could do better with draw systems?

Under/Over Systems

2 winners from 3 and a profit of 1.13pts.  Retirement beckons for these systems!


A profit of 99.38pts from 615 bets. An ROI of 16.1%.

A really good set of results over Easter and the month has been good so far.  As I’ve been discussing on Twitter, it has been a very favourable month for anyone betting on Aways (less so for those betting on Homes/Draws) and therefore, my ratings are capitalising on this. I think my only disappointment so far this month is that the systems haven’t won even more profit and therefore, as has been the issue for most of the season, when things go well, the systems don’t seem to win as much as they should but when things go bad, they lose more than they should!

One weekend of results left this month and 4 midweek games next week. It looks like it will be a profitable month but looking at the last two months together, it’s still a hefty loss for the overall system results. I think that shows how bad March was! 


  1. Whats Tage's Max4 system about? Is there a blog post or a comment explaining this system somewhere? I have looked for it but cant find anything.

    1. Hi Anon.

      The system was discussed in a short paper Tage wrote for subscribers of the service earlier this season which was shared via email I sent. There are no posts or comments on the blog regarding this system which you can read. I will see if Tage will do something at season end regarding this system (in terms of a review) but I can’t promise anything. I need to email Tage soon anyway as I probably owe him an apology, so I’ll bring this up.



      PS. If you are a member of the service, email me and I’ll dig out the email and forward it on.

  2. Thanks to Graeme for the nice words!

    Unfortunately I don’t think ‘people’ will change the way they think about TFA.
    According to Graeme his members fall in two broad groups, let’s call them ‘winners’ and ‘losers’.
    Harsh words perhaps, but if you still have an account at more than two UK bookies, the bookies definitely regard you as a ‘loser’.

    The winners have no reason to change their view, they have always known what TFA was all about and were able to navigate without necessarily using a specific set of systems.
    The losers don’t care about theoretical results, they don’t read my comments I’m sure! They want a simple, profitable system. Therefore they will still measure TFA on PROFIT.

    That speaks for Graeme’s idea of having two versions of TFA, a simple and a complex model.
    My suggestions point to the simple model because the losers are not able to avoid the dangers that a complex model obviously has.

    Our friend Steve is a prime example to use. He is overall a winning bettor, no question about that.
    Is Steve a ‘winner’ or a ‘loser’? He has his accounts closed everywhere like all ‘winners’ are.
    But at his football models, and he has many, he acts like a loser.
    He is saved by Sportpunter, who is using very, very simple models. Only one system per model and the bet amount is clearly advised. A model for the ‘loser’. Steve is a ‘loser’ and should stop using TFA service if no changes are made for the coming season.

    If Sportpunter can make profitable, simple models, I’m sure TFA can too.


  3. Graeme,

    I don’t know how many people really study all the tables you publish on the blog.
    Your members get the same tables via email and non-members have limited interest in them.
    I assume you do it for advertising and verification purposes.
    For a service which is closed for the season, I think two updates a year will suffice.

    What I think could be interesting, also for your members, would be a blog post along these lines:

    “Today I will take a closer look at System 31. This system has been in TFA service since the season 2011-12. It has now produced 2118 selections with a profit of 147 units. To better understand if system 31 has luck to thank for this profit, which equates to a ROI of 6.9%, I have calculated some BENCHMARK numbers (see my post about benchmark here).

    In the first season for system 31 the benchmark, also called EW for Expected Winners, was 193.
    This season there were 198 winners, which we usually call AW for Actual Winners.
    It’s obvious that when AW > EW the system has done well, and the profit this season of 21 units is no surprise.

    The next two seasons has produced these numbers:

    2012-13: AW = 334 EW = 322
    2013-14: AW = 288 EW = 281

    We see a system that so far has been consistent for three years and where luck has not played a significant role.

    It’s not the system with the best ROI over these three years.
    System 21 has a ROI of 7.6%, but due to the high number of selections system 31 has made more profit, it has a better ROC as we call it.”


  4. Hi Dmitri.

    Your posting at the moment is more prolific than me! :) I should really be handing you the keys to the blog as I’d like as many people to see your comments as possible. Not sure if you would consider this but come season end, would you be interested in some time on the blog to review some systems and the season? Give it a thought, I’d throw in a free subscription next season for your time and effort!

    OK, in terms of the first comment re. winners and losers, I find this a little harsh. I still have a number of online betting accounts (I’ve only been betting for 3 years before this year) and although I’ve placed around 75% of my bets with Pinnacle this season, around 20% have gone through UK bookmakers. Admittedly, some of these are on my second account (my wife’s name) and many accounts are restricted and it will only get worse every week and every month but the point is, I wouldn’t say I’m a loser because I place some bets with these bookmakers!

    There are a number of subscribers to TFA who play small stakes (£10-£20 a point) and they use UK bookmakers a fair bit I suspect. I also get regular feedback from subscribers saying they can beat my prices fairly easily and I assume they are not doing this with Pinnacle. It would seem unfair to call these guys losers!

    Anyway, putting your terminology aside, I think what you are saying is that there are people who can take my ratings and systems and come up with profitable ways to follow the bets and make a return (due to the fact that my ratings are profitable) and then there are other people who basically rely on me to tell them which bets to follow. Unfortunately for me, I know from experience that my current base is split 80/20 in favour of those that rely on me and only 20% of you do your own thing. This season, I expect the 20% to be profitable and I expect around 20% of the 80% are loss making with the others hovering between a profit or a loss. Hence, Steve fits into the 16%, you fall into the 20% and the other 64% are mostly profitable but some are loss making.

    Of course, the above is a generalisation but I sort of know what many people were doing this season and therefore, I can be confident I won’t be far off. Over the first 3 seasons, everyone was profitable since it was impossible to lose (crazy staking aside!) and therefore, I’ve probably gone from 100% of people winning to something like 50%. Not great I’m afraid.

    I think the flaw is in your last sentence Dmitri and is what I have discussed with Tage before. I have 4 years experience of betting, I have no statistical background, no knowledge of how to make money betting consistently and therefore, I really am not best placed to help people make money from my ratings. I love playing with data, building algorithms, building systems and trying to find an edge but that’s it. This season has showed me I’m not cut out to even be a decent sized bettor and I’m taking steps next season to remove myself from this side of the game.

    People like yourself, Tage and a small handful of other members I communicate with are best placed to help people win money using my ratings. That system Tage developed to show the issue with level staking on too many teams (max 4 system) is not something I would have ever looked at tbh as my mind doesn’t work in that way. I’m a fairly simple guy who basically has a skillset that enables me to build ratings and systems but once I’m done, what I do with them, I’ve no idea! I said this the other day in a reply to you but if I knew what I was doing at this game, I wouldn’t have 52 systems! :(

    What I need is people to point me in the direction of how do I best use what I have to help people at this game. My issue is that the people who are best placed to tell me don’t want to as it impacts their way of playing TFA and therefore, why share a winning formulae with me to share with others?


  5. In terms of your 2nd comment about the blog, I don’t think many people would get something from that blog post you describe. Steve wouldn’t, I personally wouldn’t and I expect 80% of the service wouldn’t either! The 20% of you who understand that would like it though. :)

    As you say, I need to do the results for verification purposes (I don’t think this blog is ever an advert to join the service, maybe an advert to swerve the service!) and ultimately, it makes me keep updated with the ratings and results. I expect if I started updating my results sheets every month, things would slip as I wouldn’t have the discipline to do it every few days if it wasn’t going on the blog! Staying up to 1am to update results would be difficult if I wasn’t using them for anything. I juggle a lot as you know in my life, so the blog posting keeps me on track I suspect.

    I’ve been here with a few of you who sit in the 20% group before Dmitri. Ideally, you’d like me to bin 80% of subscribers, keep the 20% who only want my ratings, probably share more rating factors with you guys, share the bets earlier in the week so you can get better odds and charge you guys the equivalent fee to keep me going. I expect the average stake size of the 20% is much greater than the 80%, Steve aside who seems to bet massive on TFA but doesn’t have a statistical background!

    I think the best workaround is that I split the service in two and 20% can get the ratings and the systems and do your own thing and the 80% follow the system bets in some way.

    My only issue with this is I don’t know how to build systems for the 80% to follow…….


  6. Graeme,
    Yes, it is a terminology issue. So I called the big group of 80% of your members for “losers”, not losers. I could have called them group B. In poker there are “sharks” and ‘fish”. Don’t believe there are any real sharks playing online poker!

    You have a problem with the service obviously.
    Let me make an analogy.
    Formula 1 racing.
    To stand on the podium after a race you need two things, a great car and a great driver.
    The car is built by clever engineers, who should be lucky to get 10 rounds on the track.
    If the driver were to build a car, I’m afraid the car would never leave the pit.

    You are the engineer who build the algorithms and systems. But to drive the systems you have to know a lot of math and statistics.

    I pay you money for building the systems. When I am fairly certain that the systems have a positive edge I begin to drive for real. Then I can make a profit, and a greater profit than you can. Because I know how to use your ratings better.

    We live in two different worlds.
    You think that I have a winning formula that I don’t want to share with others. Because in your world it’s only a question of coming up with the selections. At best it’s 40% of the end result!

    I change tactics all the time just like a Formula 1 driver takes stock of the situation at any time.
    This is not something that can be put on a formula and then suddenly as by magic, all your members will crush the bookies.

    I can give some general guidelines. And that is what I have done in my comments.
    The absolutely best advice is to strictly respect proven mathematical results.
    You are not going to win at this game if you believe 2 + 2 = 5
    Respect Kelly’s results. Don’t violate the rule and don’t lure innocent people to fall into the trap.


  7. ” I’ve been here with a few of you who sit in the 20% group before Dmitri. Ideally, you’d like me to bin 80% of subscribers, keep the 20% who only want my ratings, probably share more rating factors with you guys, share the bets earlier in the week so you can get better odds and charge you guys the equivalent fee to keep me going.”

    You are right in a few things here.

    Being a math guy I want as much information as possible and at the earliest time possible. My advantage lies in my ability to use this information better.
    And the absolute dream scenario would be, that I had exclusive right to this information before other subscribers.

    All bookies and maybe especially Pinnacle have low limits on the opening prices, meaning that if 100 members placed their bets the moment Pinnacle put up their prices, the consequence would be a massive drop in prices.

    If I was the only bettor, I could get the Pinnacle opening price for their limit, and THEN the price would go down a little.
    It’s this effect you see when TFA or other popular tipsters send out their tips Thursday evening.

    All tipsters are subject to this unfortunate effect. The better the tipster is, the more people want to follow and the prices are impossible to get at. The responsible tipsters therefore set a limit on the number of subscribers. TFA uses 100. One of the best in UK has max 20 members.

    All of this is known stuff for the experienced bettors, but could be useful information if you are rather new in this exciting business.

    Going on. The tipster himself is of course the first to know which bets are in the email to the subscribers. So he has exclusive right to the information until he push the send button.

    It’s a well-known and generally accepted fact that the tipster can use this great advantage to his own benefit.
    Therefore I see no problem if Graeme after he has updated the odds and are ready to ship the bets, take the time to place his own bets first.

    How much time will that cost?
    It depends. If Graeme uses a bot to place the bets as many bettors do, it will take about 20 seconds.
    If he has to do it manually it will depend on the number of bets, but using Pinnacle 75% of the time, I would estimate, that he can do it in about 10 minutes.

    Observe that as Graeme is the only bettor and the market is now more mature than it was at opening, most prices will not change and the members are getting the fair odds shortly after.

    Graeme is secured that all his bets are placed at advised prices or better and the members are unaffected basically. A fair deal in my view.


  8. Hi Dmitri.

    I’d love to sit here and say I disagree with what you say but I can’t. I think you are correct in the sense that I’m an engineer and I really enjoy playing with data and ratings but when it comes to staking plans, optimal staking and so on, I’m a complete novice. Being honest, until this season when I increased stakes considerably, I was a small stakes bettor and as I’ve seen when I’ve increased stakes this season, I’m out of my depth!

    I find your last comment a tad harsh. I don’t lure innocent people to fall into the trap. People do what they want with the bets. I know two members who place every UK bet I give. 4th season of profit this season and they never complain to me about the fact they’re violating Kelly! Steve isn’t complaining about the fact he’s been lured into following too many systems, Steve’s annoyance is from the fact that the systems he chose to follow are underperforming. I followed a similar approach to Steve and I’m not in the mess Steve is in this season. If Steve had swapped 31-42 for 31-41 and swapped his two draw systems for another couple of combined draw systems, Steve would be in profit. That’s the truth of the matter. Hence, he would have made a profit again by disobeying Kelly!

    This world would be boring if we all thought the same and therefore, I never tend to comment too much on what other people do. This season has been a little different and I’ve been forced to comment on Steve a few times as quite simply, his results are the worst advert for a service I’ve ever seen! However, people like yourself and others who are happy to come on the blog and admit that you are making a profit provides a balanced view of TFA for anyone who is thinking about the service going forward.

    After this season, I expect a number of members to leave and they’ll go with my best wishes. TFA isn’t for everyone and it never will be.

    Thanks again for the comment.


  9. Sorry, didn’t see your last comment before my last reply Dmitri. Was sitting in my mailbox.

    Yes, the solution you discuss is what I will be implementing from next season. I’ve said this before but for the first 4 seasons, I haven’t placed my bets before the rest of the subscribers. I’d place the odd bet at a standout price and if time allows, I would place a few bets earlier in the week in thinner markets as I know they can absorb my stakes but long-term, if I really want to capitalise on my own work, I know I needed to find a way to place the bets before I send the bets to subscribers. Given my time constraints, I have to hook up with someone else to enable me to benefit as much as I hope. As I’m sure you see each week, I don’t have the odds updated until I get in from work and as soon as I am done and create the data sheet/pivot, I send the bets

    I’m sure people reading this find it slightly amusing that I’m 4 years down the line before realising this wasn’t really optimal but given I was new to online betting, I had access to UK bookmakers and therefore, I managed to easily beat my advised prices and profits even if placing bets after I released them. This is the first season where my odds obtained don’t beat my advised odds (I’m at about 99.8%) and therefore, I’m missing 2%-3% of profits. Didn’t matter much in the first few years but when you a marginal season like I’m having betting wise, 3% additional profit would be great!

    Ultimately, I know if I can’t make TFA work for the masses (and I include myself in this), I can just do what you suggest and release the bets earlier to people who can use the info and I’m sure you guys would pay me handsomely or a share of the profits etc. That’s one avenue open to me long-term and to be honest, it is something I would possibly consider one day. My long-term aim at this has always been to make a profit betting and not become a tipster per se. It’s handy having the service as it pays for the time and effort to do my ratings etc. but the intention is to make myself a second income from betting, not become a massive tipster service or start charging £300 a year for subscriptions to 300 people.

    People mock TFA for the fact that I charge a low subscription fee and if my ratings were any good, surely I’d be living off the profits now but as I think your posts have highlighted, having a profitable set of ratings and becoming a successful bettor are two very different things.

    I feel like I’m giving myself a hard time in some of these comments to you Dmitri but as I’ve said to Tage before, I’m personally quite happy with my profits over the first 3 seasons. Maybe I had a bit of luck and maybe I could have made much more than I made but at the end of the day, I entered into this season with a belief I would achieve a ROC of above 100% for the 4th season in a row. It hasn’t worked out that way but the average return I’ve made over the first 4 seasons now is still very healthy. If I started out 4 years ago and had achieved the profits I’ve got now, I wouldn’t have been disappointed. :)

    Thanks again for the comment.


  10. Graeme,
    Let’s take the whole paragraph and examine what I’m saying:

    “I can give some general guidelines. And that is what I have done in my comments.
    The absolutely best advice is to strictly respect proven mathematical results.
    You are not going to win at this game if you believe 2 + 2 = 5
    Respect Kelly’s results. Don’t violate the rule and don’t lure innocent people to fall into the trap.”

    We have for some time now discussed how TFA service should look next season. You have asked people to come up with their suggestions.

    I have at length made suggestions and in particular I have addressed some theoretical results like Kelly, which very few of your members and yourself inclusive had knowledge of beforehand. I have said many times, that it will be unprofitable in the long run if you violate such facts.

    And in the paragraph I’m just repeating some of my advice
    It is not about the last four seasons. We can’t change history. It’s about the future which we CAN change.

    Has Steve violated Kelly with the portfolio he uses this season?
    I would say yes, obviously he has, not because he has lost money.
    Kelly is not about money. No, his multibets have been too big.
    Now you observe, very smart, that if we swap a few systems in Steve’s portfolio, he would be in profit.
    Then I have to ask you: Does the NEW portfolio violate Kelly.
    And the answer is once again a clear yes.
    It’s WRONG to use £££ to argue about random events.

    Steve takes responsibility for his losses.
    But how did he in the first place come in this unfortunate situation?

    There are two reasons:
    1. Steve did not know about Kelly
    2. He had 52 systems to choose from

    Imagine that next season Steve has only one system to choose.
    Then it does not matter whether Steve knows about Kelly.
    He can’t do it wrong.

    Now that you know Kelly, you also know that if you offer members too many systems, there will always be some ‘innocent’ people that will fall into the trap and violate Kelly.
    Can you then with a poor heart say, that you had nothing to do with that? It was their choice.

    In my dictionary I had to choose between ‘lure’, ‘entice’ and ‘tempt’
    I stand by my words: “don’t lure innocent people to fall into the trap.”


  11. Dmitri,

    I’m a simple man really. I have 52 systems, 8 algorithms, 10 leagues, 4 ways of playing every bet (outright, AH0, AH0.25 and AH0.50) because I don’t know what to do. Tell me what to do with the ratings and systems for the masses? I appreciate you can’t wave a magic wand and everyone will start beating the bookies but if you were in my shoes (you basically are as you have my ear 100% at the moment), what would you do Dmitri?

    Is it one algorithm (system 31?) that everyone follows every week? Is that all I need? What staking plan? No filtering of any ratings I assume? How many members can follow all these bets at once before the odds movements kill the service?

    Over the past few months and even the past 12 months, I’ve had lots of people say use an optimal staking plan for the service, have less systems, have less algorithms, don’t filter ratings, filter ratings more, have less leagues, do more leagues, have more members, have less members etc. No one is willing to share with me what they would do. You can be the first to actually tell me what to do……..

    That’s all I’m looking for really from anyone. I’ll throw in a lifetime membership to TFA for anyone who tells me what to do and if I adopt it. I’m struggling to know what to do as I’m sure you can see from my comments.

    Steve has thrown down the gauntlet to me in a blog post recently saying if he subscribes to TFA again, he would expect me to tell him what to follow next season. As we have deduced from this conversation, I’m not best placed to tell Steve what to do at all. Steve asks me as he thinks because I’m the mechanic, I should also be the driver. Clearly, I disagree and I’m not a F1 driver at all, I’m the mechanic ffs, don’t let me loose on the track! :)

    Telling me to not violate Kelly doesn’t really help me as much as you might hope! :(


  12. It’s so amusing talking F1 instead of TFA!

    Driver: I refuse to use this car. It’s too dangerous, I don’t want to be killed in a crash.
    Engineer: Please tell me then how to build a car you will drive.
    Driver: I have no idea. I’m a simple man, who happens to be good at driving a F1 racer.


  13. Driver: I refuse to use this car. It’s too dangerous, I don’t want to be killed in a crash.
    Engineer: But nobody has been killed in four years using this car.
    Driver: I don’t care. I will not take the risk.


  14. Driver: I refuse to use this car. It’s too dangerous, I don’t want to be killed in a crash.
    Engineer: What are you afraid of in particular?
    Driver: It’s this Kelly aggregate. I can’t control it.


  15. Engineer: But Kevin, Kelly is what makes my car outstanding, don’t you agree?
    Kevin: Sure, but also very dangerous. I will contact Mercedes.
    Engineer: Don’t they use the Kelly aggregate?
    Kevin: No. I hope to replace Nico. Then Lewis will have a hard time beating me!