Before I get on with the recent results update, a quick thanks to Dmitri who has taken the time and effort to write a fair bit in the comments section on a recent post regarding the flaws with using a level staking approach on multiple bets which are correlated. Dmitri’s thoughts were very similar to those Tage shared with subscribers earlier this season and it’s always nice when subscribers take the time to try to use their area of expertise to help others. Thanks also to Diego for his comments.
I very much doubt whether any football systems have ever received as much press as TFA has got this season and I guess my only wish was that I had this amount of press during the first 3 seasons when things were going well! Stewboss joked on Twitter this week that I must be loving the publicity I’m getting through Steve’s blog this season (he was being sarcastic!) but I actually think this season will change the way people think about TFA. I always think you learn in life when things aren’t going as smoothly as you hoped and I feel like I’ve learnt more this season than in the previous 3 seasons combined. You never learn when you win too easily.
I think Steve’s predicament this season shows what can happen if you follow a highly correlated portfolio of bets and ultimately, Steve’s losses should be a lesson to everyone about what can happen with portfolio betting if not applied correctly. I think one thing that is clear is that lumping a set of TFA systems together in a portfolio and placing 1pt on each bet isn’t an optimal solution but to be honest, it never has been.
When every system has been profitable historically, the more systems you had in your portfolio, the higher the return on capital as the risk was higher and therefore, it was always about taking a massive risk for a massive return. I think most people realised this (Steve certainly did) and therefore, I don’t think this portfolio strategy was ever about managing risk or optimising risk and return. It was about trying to push things are far as you can go in terms of return on capital and ultimately, the strategy has crashed and burned this season for Steve (and myself to a small degree). I know others are in a similar boat.
I think those who have had a fair few pops at the service this season have been quick to point to Steve’s losses and say the ratings are rubbish but as always, it’s never that easy. After this weekend past, all 8 algorithms are in profit this season for the first time at once I think this season. Admittedly, a couple of them are nowhere near the profits I expected this season but at the end of the day, to be able to make profits over hundreds of unique bets on each algorithm isn’t easy. Given the rollercoaster this season, unlikely they’ll all be in profit at season end I suspect but even so, it’s not a disaster.
I always work on the assumption that a profitable algorithm is a great base to start from and therefore, it’s hard to be too upset with myself this season. Admittedly, this season has been really tough and the fact we’re in the last few weeks of the season and all 8 algorithms are only now in profit says a helluva lot about the season.
I’m not wanting to start drawing too many conclusions as I’ll wait until season end before looking at the season but anyone following the service will know that it has been a really tough season for the areas I play in (mainly higher average odds aways and homes) and throw in the number of teams who have thrown away 2 goal leads late on in games (feels more than a fair number of bad beats this season) and the fact that all 8 algorithms have a chance of ending the season in profit is actually quite positive.
This season has been a disaster, a nightmare, the worst season ever, the service has been ridiculed, I’ve taken an amazing amount of shi* from subscribers early in the season and then again in March, I’ve struggled to make money myself this season and yet, all 8 rating algorithms may be profitable this season.
That’s quite a sobering thought. If the ratings can make money this season, what can they do in a more normal season? Oh yeah, we already know that answer, look at the last 3 seasons…….
Anyway, here’s the results update for the Easter programme.
A profit of 25.25pts from 83 bets. Another decent update for these systems and having been loss making all season, there is a little bit of hope these systems could reach break-even if we get another couple of good weeks!
A profit of 61.95pts from 178 bets. These systems have a long way to go before they recover from the mess last month they got themselves in but it’s another nice set of results.
I gave system 31 a little bit of stick last month for having its worst ever month on record but boy, has this system bounced back this month. A profit of 25.94pts from 33 bets for this update. With one weekend left, this algorithm has a chance of achieving its best ever monthly profit! Now that would be a good comeback……
A profit of 33.77pts from 110 bets. I’ve given STOZ a lot of stick this season but it’s like someone has flicked a switch on this system this month. A profit of 16.08pts from 26 bets in this update. Last month was the worst month ever for STOZ. If it can make a profit this weekend, it can possibly be the best month the system has ever had! Can it do it?
A loss of 21.72pts from 169 bets. Only 43 winners. I said this on Twitter earlier this week but this is a nightmare month for those backing the draw in the UK leagues. The strike rate is 20% at the moment this month and therefore, I think these systems have done great this update to only lose 22pts. This has been the toughest season for draws over the last 4 seasons and therefore, I think the draw systems this season have outperformed the underlying results by a fair way. If the draw systems can do this in a tough season, what would happen in a good season for draws?
A loss of 1pt from 72 bets. No real damage done but the ratings have been doing OK. The filtering of the systems has been difficult (same as the UK systems tbh this season) and I guess it’s a step forward that the ratings have done OK this season. The Euro leagues remain a bit of a mystery to me and I’m seriously thinking that having a go at draw systems in the Euro leagues is probably the next logical step for me but I’ll give it some thought during the Summer. I like the Euro bets as it gives me interest in the Euro leagues each weekend but as always, I’m not really interested in having bets for the sake of it. I need to have an edge and at the moment, I’m not convinced these ratings have much of an edge in the Euro leagues. Maybe I could do better with draw systems?
2 winners from 3 and a profit of 1.13pts. Retirement beckons for these systems!
A profit of 99.38pts from 615 bets. An ROI of 16.1%.
A really good set of results over Easter and the month has been good so far. As I’ve been discussing on Twitter, it has been a very favourable month for anyone betting on Aways (less so for those betting on Homes/Draws) and therefore, my ratings are capitalising on this. I think my only disappointment so far this month is that the systems haven’t won even more profit and therefore, as has been the issue for most of the season, when things go well, the systems don’t seem to win as much as they should but when things go bad, they lose more than they should!
One weekend of results left this month and 4 midweek games next week. It looks like it will be a profitable month but looking at the last two months together, it’s still a hefty loss for the overall system results. I think that shows how bad March was!