Monday, 14 April 2014

April Results So Far.......

The first half of April has been much better than all of March I think. It’s like chalk and cheese compared to last month but as always, the underlying results tell the story of what’s happened. We have just experienced the most favourable two weeks of the seasons for Away bets I think and thankfully, my ratings caught a good chunk of it. Frustratingly, they didn’t catch more away winners and I’m a little disappointed to only be posting the profits I’m posting but it sort of sums up the season so far. I don’t win enough during the good times and I lose too much during the bad times!

As has been the case too often this season for my liking, teams have lost 2 goal leads late on and these results would have been over 120pts better off if one team had not drawn 3-3 after leading 3-1 with 10 mins left or if a team had not conceded an equaliser in the 95th minute through a debatable penalty with the last kick of the game!  This 120pt swing can be added to the other swings suffered early on this season when things like this seemed to be common occurrence!

The strike rate for draws has been very, very low so far this month and I think it’s great credit to the draw systems that they are basically break-even this month so far. Hasn’t been an easy time for draws this season and the fact the Draw systems have been my best performing systems says a fair bit about these systems.

The month has been a nightmare for backing all Homes and my Home bets have struggled too. Again, not going to beat them up too much given how difficult it has been but when the Away strike rate is higher than the Home strike rate in a month, you are going to struggle to make money with Home bets!

A really strange month so far but given the way this season has went, I’m not in the least bit surprised. I think the work I’ve done on the underlying results this season has really helped me think about this game differently now and I suspect it’s potentially going to change the way I think about ratings now if I continue with my football ratings into the future.

Anyway, here’s the results for the month so far: (I’ve assumed the 3pts on bets tonight are lost)

Est Systems

A profit of 10.38pts from 76 bets.  Given the underlying results, disappointing these systems haven’t capitalised more so far this month.

New Systems

A profit of 43.04pts from 172 bets. A really strong start to the month after the disaster of last month. 4 profitable days this month from 4. Last month had 2 profitable days from 16 if I remember correctly!

Misc Systems

 A profit of 29.99pts from 78 bets. STOZ has (for the first time this season!) outperformed the other Misc Systems so far this month. A long way back for this system and it’s still on a horrible drawdown but it has at least stopped losing for the time being!

Draw Systems

A profit of 0.28pts from 177 bets. Considering the low strike rate of draws so far this month (less than 20%), to break-even and manage to hit 51 winners from 177 is very good.  Hopefully these systems can build on this in the second half of the month.

Euro Systems

27pts profit from 142 bets. I’ve no idea if the Euro bets have performed better than the underlying market conditions or not this season as I don’t have the same level of analysis available at the moment. However, I am aware of the very low strike rates for Draws and therefore, I suspect the Euro systems are operating in very favourable conditions this season. Therefore, I would suggest these systems may not be performing as well as I’d have hoped but we’ll see what it looks like at season end.

Under/Over Systems

1.62pts profit from 7 bets.

Overall, a profit of 112.31pts from 652 bets.

The positive start this month wins back around 1/3 of the losses from last month. However, if two games had not suffered late turnarounds, we would have recouped around 2/3 of the losses from last month. It’s a thin line at times and ultimately, too many times this season, the systems have been on the other side of the line.

It’s a really busy end to this month with two full sets of fixtures over the Bank Holiday weekend coming up. Given the way the season has gone, I wouldn’t like to guess what happens next! 

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