Monday, 7 April 2014

March 2014 Monthly Review

It’s difficult to know where to start with this review. I’ve went back to read the monthly reviews for Feb-11, Apr-11 and Sep-13 as quite simply, these 3 months are etched into my memory and unfortunately, Mar-14 is a month I’m unlikely to forget for a long time either!

I have spent a lot of time in the last few days pulling together a more detailed look at the underlying results. I have started to track the underlying results more closely as I discussed in the post from January and this helped crystallise my thoughts about the season so far and where the issues were. After March, I couldn’t help but look at the results for the season and March closely and cutting the data as many different ways as I can as it’s impossible for me to just take this loss on the chin and say it is variance.

I will do another post after the monthly review post looking at the underlying results rather than doing this underlying results post first. I don’t want the underlying results to be used in any way to excuse the performance of the systems but it helps me to take this loss on the chin and look forward to the future. Not everyone’s mind works the same way as mines though and at the end of the day, the results are the results.

For me personally, March was my worst ever betting month by a fair bit. I lost 75% of my betting bank in terms of a monetary amount. Crazy to be writing this tbh but it’s true. My P&L peaked on the 1st of March and I was above 50% ROC and then 4 weeks later, I’m showing a large loss for the season. Quite a remarkable turnaround and ultimately, it has ruined this season for me and most people following the systems. It can be argued that the season was already ruined for many anyway, so at least this now puts many of us in the same boat!

I’m still hopeful I can end the season around break-even and given how difficult this season has been for so many systems, break-even would be great. 4 weeks ago, I was pretty sure I would make 100% ROC for the 4th season in a row and after the horrible start this season, I would have been ecstatic with this. Now, I’ll be happy with break-even! It is a strange game at times…..

So what went wrong in March?  Well, everything! My ratings were quite frankly, terrible. Very low strike rate across all algorithms, the home bets weren’t winning and the aways were doing as they’ve done for most of the season, losing!

It was a similar story to September 2013 whereby finding away winners was difficult but my ratings found it impossible. Unfortunately, the home bets didn’t come to the rescue and I seemed to find it impossible to find home winners although they were much easier to find. Very disappointing and ultimately, it has led to a disaster month on most systems.

On the 1st of March, most systems were in profit this season apart from the very selective systems and I was really starting to think the systems were going to rescue this season after a disastrous start to the season. 4 weeks later and the returns for the systems and the service are a complete and utter mess again. It’s like being at the end of Sep-13 again!

Some of the best systems I have (System 6-21, 31-41, 31-42, STOZ, E3-E6 etc.) all had as bad a month as I’ve ever seen for any of my systems! Unfortunately for me and many others following, these are very popular systems and therefore, anyone following these in a portfolio suffered a MASSIVE drawdown in March.  These systems were not having too bad a season before this month but now, they’re in the same mess as lots of other systems this season!

Anyway, that’s the high level story for the month. A shocker of a month.

Est Systems

As usual, I’ll start with a look at the value ratings for algorithm one. Here’s the results:

25 winners from 91 bets and a loss of 23.1pts. Breaking it down, you can see Away bets found 13 winners from 65 bets for a 22pt loss whereas Homes lost 1.1pts from 26 bets.  Aways were a major issue again.

Looking at the value bands, the big losses were in the two lowest bands (again!) and ultimately, these lower value bets have performed shockingly this season. Unfortunately, with so many bets falling into these bands, I don’t think we can just chop all bets of 10% value or less! I’d not have many bets left.

As you can see by the AH returns, many of the aways bets finished as draws and as always, at the average odds we bet at for these away bets, every draw bet is a significant swing against us. It was a slightly frustrating month with the draw but even so, it doesn’t disguise the poor performance this month of this algorithm.

Looking at the historical results, it is the largest pts loss this algorithm has ever suffered in a month and the second largest drawdown ever experienced. This is looking at all results back to season 06/07. Interestingly, the % loss this month of 25.4% wasn’t as bad as the 29% loss in Sep-13! Hence, in the space of 7 months, we’ve had two losses of 25%+ in a month. Another new record for this algorithm.

Overall, a shocking month for the first rating algorithm but it is a common theme this month unfortunately.

Here’s the results for algorithm two:

17 winners from 63 bets and a loss of 11.5pts. Compared to the first algorithm, a much better month! Only a loss of 18.2%. :(

Aways were the issue again. A loss of 12.5pts from 50 bets. Homes made a profit of 1pt from 13 bets.

Again, the Aways were clearly drawing too many games as the AH returns were much better if backing the draw as well as the selection.

Looking at the value bands, away bets with less than 5% value found 3 winners from 18 bets. Shockingly bad again. On the other hand, Home bets in the same band found 5 winners from 7 bets.

As I’ve always said in the monthly reviews this season, we’ll take a look at the value ratings at the end of the season and draw some conclusions.  Having written 7 monthly reviews now, I can tell you have I have written a fair bit about the low value bands losing every month and in the analysis I did a wee while back, it pointed out that dropping these bets was a way to reduce the bet number and increase profits. Hopefully we get some clear conclusions at season end.

Looking at historical results, this month wasn’t as bad as Sep-13 on this algorithm. It’s the 3rd worst month in terms of pts lost and the system did suffer a new highest drawdown a few weeks back. Similar to what I said above though, having two massive losing months in the space of 7 months and in the same season will kill the returns over the season.

Here’s the returns for the Est Systems this month:

90 winners from 307 bets and a loss of 37.9pts.

I think my first observation has to be that the filtering of the systems hasn’t worked on these systems all season but amazingly, in a month when the ratings turn to shit, the filtering of the bets works like a dream! It really is amazing how this game works at times.

Not surprisingly, with the mess systems 6 and 21 made, 6-21 had a shocking month too. A loss of 16.8pts from 55 bets.

However, once you get past these losses, things don’t look too bad at all. Don’t ask me how as all season, the filtering has done a truly remarkable job of filtering out the winners and keeping the losers but this month, the filtering managed to find some winners!

System 7 managed to filter the mess on system 6 and basically turned a 25% loss into a 2% loss which is good going. System 8 then turned a 2% loss into a 90% profit!

It’s crazy to think system 8 found 4 winners from 7 bets considering system 7 found 8 winners from 24 bets!

The same story with system 22 which managed to break-even even though system 21 had a shocking month.

What we then find then is that systems 6-22 thru to 8-22 made a combined profit this month as all the other systems were losing crazy amounts! It’s like role reversal compared to earlier this season.

My last comment has to be on the AH returns. System 6-21 has the same AH0.5 return as the other combined systems. Clearly, the filtering managed to dodge some of the draws that impacted system 6-21 so badly. There is a lot of luck involved in trying to filter bets in my opinion and this season, the higher combined systems have been missing a lot of luck. They got it this month.

I think giving the mess the rating algorithms made this month, I’m a little surprised the systems didn’t lose much more than they lost if I’m honest. Says it all that I think we’re lucky to only lose this much on these systems.

New Systems

Brace yourselves, here’s the results for my best algorithm (bear in mind, this algorithm made a profit in Sep-13 when every other algorithm had large losses!):

Only 30 winners from 116 bets and a loss of 26.3pts. In terms of pts lost, the worst month this algorithm has ever had by a helluva long way. The second worst month (Sep-11) lost 16pts from 78 bets. When algorithm 3 has a losing month, you know it’s tough. When this happens, you have to question wtf has happened this month!

Aways were the main culprit with 20.3pts lost from 75 bets and Homes lost 6pts from 41 bets. Similar to the first 2 algorithms, the AH returns are much better and the draw has been a pest this month for this algorithm.

Looking at the value bands, usual story with the low value bets causing the issues with the Aways. Highest value bets all lost too on this algorithm but looking at the average odds (5.00+), hitting no winners from a small sample is going to be fairly common.

Overall, the worst month this algorithm has ever had by a helluva long way and considering how good this algorithm has been this season, it is a little bit of a shock to see a large loss like this. Also the largest drawdown the system has ever suffered too by a fair bit.

Here’s the results for algorithm 4:

A similar story to the first 3 algorithms and a loss of 28.5pts from 140 bets. 27.2pts loss for the Aways and a loss of 1.4pts from 47 bets.

It’s hard to not be drawn to the low value away bets again here. A loss of 16.1pts from 50 bets for the Away bets. I know for a fact this algorithm has struggled all season with low value away bets, so seeing another loss isn’t too surprising but the size of the losses are surprising.

Looking at historical results, the worst month this algorithm has ever had and the highest drawdown by a very long way. 

So, what we have then is the 3rd and 4th algorithms that has smashed every record I have for worst ever months. Can you guess what the New System results will be like? :(

Here’s the New System results:

A loss of 204.2pts from 572 bets. Only 132 winners.

The largest loss in pts lost by a long way in a month (over 100pts to the next highest loss) and in terms of ROI, the largest negative ROI by some way too. Basically, a disaster of a month.

Going into March, these systems were making a good profit and with a good end to the season, they could have got close to the profits last season. Unfortunately, they will be doing well to break even now.

The issue lies with the rating algorithms more than the systems. The Est Systems got lucky with the filtering but when the rating algorithms are losing this badly, the systems deserve to be losing I think. Hence, I’ve no real complaints.

The draw has been an issue again and too many bets have drawn this month but apart from that, not much more I can say.  New largest drawdowns on many of the systems, records smashed for low strike rates and basically, as big a mess as I’ve ever seen from any of my systems in 4 seasons.

The filtering did actually make things worse but it has been like this most of the season. My only saving grace was system 33 didn’t have many bets. If it had more bets, it would have been greater losses.

It’s easy to go over the top here (I’m trying my best to reign it in!) but not sure I can say too much apart from show the results. I didn’t think it was possible to have a month as bad as this and ultimately, this will lead to potentially bigger banks on many of these systems in future if they recover from the current drawdowns.

Here’s the split by Home and Away bets:

As you can see, Aways were the big issue as you would expect. System 32-41 hit 1 winner from 22 bets at an average odds of 3.55. Shocking.

System 32 hit 3 away winners from 24 bets. 11 draws were in there though and as I know only too well, there is a thin line between success and failure. 11 draws with an average win price of 3.60 for the selections. Turn a few draws into wins and the P&L would look a bit different.

Overall then, the worst month I’ve ever seen for these systems or for any systems I’ve ever looked at! Wipes out the profits from earlier this season and ultimately, break-even now looks a challenge for these systems this season.

Misc Systems

Here’s the results of these systems:

All 6 systems lost although the losses varied to a degree by systems. Overall, a loss of 88pts from 275 bets.

I keep saying this every month this season but previously, the additional bets that appeared to STOZ were the bets that separated STOZ from the other two SGM systems. Unfortunately, the additional games on STOZ have been a nightmare and it is actually quite funny this month in a surreal sort of way. STOZ had an additional 19 bets that STOY didn’t have and amazingly, none of the 19 bets were winners! Hence, STOY and STOZ both hit 12 winners. They weren’t the same 12 winners but I think 11 of the winners were the same.

Going into this season, STOZ would have been my favourite system but at the moment, it is on its knees unfortunately. Again, the performance of STOZ highlights how this season looks nothing like previous seasons but it’s hard to take on the chin. The swing from last season to this season on this system alone is hard to fathom, never mind what is happening to the other systems!

The draw was a significant issue on these systems as you can see by the AH returns and ultimately, this has killed the returns this month.

Here’s the split by Homes and Aways:

Aways were the big issue again with 81.1pts lost from 218 bets. Only 38 winners from 218 away bets.

Traditionally,  my strongest home bets have appeared on STOZ but even they can’t perform anywhere near as well this season.

Overall, yet another nightmare month for these systems and this season has been worse than the first season for these systems which was a poor season too. Very frustrating and after an amazing season last season, they have followed it up with a stinker of a season.

Draw Systems

Here’s the results from the Draw systems this month:

After having to review the first 3 sets of systems and the massive losses, I’m just glad these systems didn’t have a losing month! Not the best month for these systems but a profit of 42.6pts from 484 bets. An ROI of 8.8%.

9 of the 11 systems made a profit although the second draw algorithm had a nightmare and then D7 couldn’t rescue the results and made a loss too.

I’ve said this a few times this season but these systems have performed better than I could have hoped for and ultimately, if I didn’t launch these new systems this season, this season would have been even more painful than it has been. Ultimately, I suspect I will go into next season with a set of draw systems with very good results and lots of other systems with massive question marks against them.

System D2-D7 has been brilliant this season so far and the returns are unreal this month again. Again, I know the returns this season aren’t typical of what we can expect long-term but it reminds me of how system 7-22 performed when it first launched.  I’d never seen anything like it and ultimately, D2-D7 (its cousin) has performed the same way.

I want to see a full season of results before we draw any conclusions for these systems but so far, apart from a losing month in September, they have performed very well. We’ll see what the results look like at season end.

Euro Systems

Here’s the results for this month:

A bit of a mixed bag here for these systems this month. A loss of 15.4pts from 518 bets.

I think my first observation is that when the rating algorithms both have profitable months, to be posting a loss is frustrating. E1, E6 and E7 had good months but when the systems have been agreeing, it hasn’t been working as well as I’d have hoped.

In addition, the filtering on the first algorithm didn’t work at all and E2 and E3 had nightmare months even though E1 had an OK month. This then ruined the returns on the combined systems unfortunately.

Interestingly, before this month, the AH returns on these Euro bets were doing great as the selections were hitting far too many draws but this month, with the very low number of draws in these leagues, when the bets haven’t been winning, they’ve been losing! Hence, it’s even more disappointing to be posting a loss on these bets when the draw hasn’t been a nuisance at all.

Still early days for these systems and all I can say is that I think these Euro systems are better than the first set of Euro systems I built for last season. However, compared to the returns on the UK systems, these systems are nowhere near although the irony with that comment is that after this month, the Euro systems are the 2nd best behind the Draw systems this season! I don’t believe this to be the case for one minute and shows how short-term a season can be.

I’ll do a much fuller analysis at season end on these Euro systems and draw some conclusions.

Under/Over Systems

These are staggering towards their retirement. Here’s the results this month:

8 winners from 16 bets and a profit of 1.1pts.


A loss of 301.8pts from 2,172 bets. An ROI of -13.9%.

Well, as I said in the introduction, Mar-14 will now join the months of Feb-11, Apr-11 and Sep-13 in my memory bank. For me personally, this is the biggest loss I’ve ever suffered from betting and it has been a wake up call for me. I’ve discussed this before on the blog but I appreciate the way I play this game carries lots of risks but I have always felt like the returns were appropriate for the level of risk I was taking. Before this month, I was on course for a pretty good season which considering the start I had this season, would have been amazing. 4 weeks later and any thoughts of doubling my betting bank this season for the 4th straight season are gone. I’d take break-even again which is what I said a few months ago before things started going well.

I think the interesting thing about this month is that the biggest losses by far were on some of the systems which were having an OK season. Hence, those following systems 31,31-41,6-21,31-42,6-21-31 and the like have taken a massive hit. Those who were following the systems that were doing rubbish before this month have suffered a smaller hit although on top of the earlier losses, it’s not exactly a positive!

The most disappointing system this month and this season has been STOZ. Hard to believe it’s the same system as the one that carried all before it last season but shows how difficult the systems have found this season.

Well, that’s the review of March. The worst month the systems have ever had and the worst month I’ve ever had. Let’s see what April brings……

No comments:

Post a Comment