Tuesday, 28 October 2014

Latest Results Update

There are still outstanding midweek bets to be played before we can draw the month of October to a close. This update takes us up to last night’s games and the next blog post will cover the remaining games that take place this week before I can crack on with the monthly review.

This update is very similar to the previous updates this season and the Away bias has continued throughout this month. Every time I think things are settling down and we are seeing a more normal strike rate for Away wins, a set of fixtures come along with barely any Away wins and it’s another loss for my ratings and the systems. It’s definitely been a case of one step forward, one step back this season so far but as I keep reiterating in my results updates, standing still at the moment is actually quite good. Last season, the systems had dug themselves into a horrible hole by this stage of the season and yet, the results this season for Aways have been even tougher than last season.

I guess there is a underlying theme here that for two seasons in a row, finding Aways winners early on in the season has been very tricky. It’s actually the 3rd time in 4 seasons this has been the case and therefore, it does lead me to think we should possibly consider adapting the way we play Aways early on in the season but not worth thinking about for the moment.

Here’s the results for the last two weeks.

Est Systems

A profit of 9.79pts from 251 bets. Not a great return but we can see from the AH results that the Draw has been a major pest on these systems recently. Can’t recall too many updates where the AH0.5 returns are so much better than the outright returns for all bets but we see that here.

Not a great update again for these systems and it does feel like they are ploughing through treacle at the moment and have been for the last 12 months or so. 10pts profit in the last 2,871 bets (last season and this) tells its own story but as always, it’s not a huge sample of bets. The previous 3 seasons saw 263pts profit, 293pts profit and 240pts profit from 2,784, 2,669 and 2,973 bets respectively. It has been a bad 2,871 bets but then again, this counts for 25% of the live bets to date. In total, 806pts profit from 11,297 bets since the systems went live. I expect another season like last season will see most of these systems retired at the end of the season and this is maybe the right thing to do. I’ve tried refreshing the algorithms and although I believe it has helped smooth the P&L, the jury is out on whether or not the profitability will improve. We’ll know more as the season progresses but this may be the swansong for all systems other than 6 and 21.

New Systems

A profit of 28.98pts from 266 bets. A very similar story to the Est Systems with the AH returns being a lot better here which highlights the Draw being an issue.

Misc Systems

A profit of 11.76pts from 168 bets. AH returns were again better but not to the same extent as on the previous systems.

Draw Systems

A profit of 16.7pts from 145 bets. A slightly better performance from these Draw systems but still miles behind the results of last season. They did start very slowly last season and by the end, I couldn’t praise them highly enough. Let’s hope it’s the same again this season.

Euro Systems

A profit of 24.6pts from 73 bets. A solid start to the season for these bets although there are a number of big priced bets this midweek which will determine whether or not they have a winning month.

Euro Draw Systems

It was all sounding so good until now! A loss of 52.5pts from 81 bets. No winners from 72 bets last weekend was a bit of a rude awakening for these systems.

I touched on this in the email last night but this weekend was the first real weekend for these bets with all leagues being rated. One thing that struck me was the sheer quantity of bets (to be fair, this was seen by the backtested results) but also the number of bets overlapping between the Euro systems and the Euro Draw systems. I’m playing very small stakes this season on the Euro Draw systems (wish they were smaller after the weekend past!) but even so, backing Euro bets and then covering the Draw in so many games doesn’t appeal to me. 

So many games were basically against a hot fav who went on to win which meant I was picking up losses on both bets and if this was to continue, I would have serious reservations about Euro Draw systems being part of the portfolio. Any edge my systems have in these Euro leagues isn’t going to be massive and therefore, giving away a bit of the edge by backing other outcomes in the same game isn’t a long-term strategy.

Overall, a profit of 39.33pts from 984 system bets. To say it’s been tough going is an understatement but to grind out profits like my systems are doing at the moment is actually quite pleasing. Things will turn at some point and as I’ve said since day one at this game, making profits is easy when things are going well, holding onto profits when things aren’t going well is the difficult part. So far, the systems have done this quite well this season but I look forward to the weekends where we see a high % of Away wins and we make big profits! 

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