A better start to the month of October, no
doubt helped by the fact it has been easier for Away and Draw bettors than
September.
There were a few good comments on the last blog
post from Dmitri and Martin and I’ve said this lots of times now but the
average bettor with TFA isn’t too stupid I suspect.
Anyway, onto the results. A profit to start the
month but a long way to go this month. Let’s see what this weekend brings.
Est
Systems
A profit of 19.07pts from 123 bets. A really
good start to the month system 6 but system 21 hasn’t really caught fire yet
this season which is impacting the combined systems.
New
Systems
A profit of 14.59pts from 161 bets. A good start
for system 41 this month whereas system 31 hasn’t don’t anything too special.
Misc
Systems
A really good start for these systems this
month with a profit of 29.06pts from 105 bets. A solid start for 5 of the 6
systems, 6-32 being the outlier as usual.
Draw
Systems
Slowly improving and at least the systems are
slowly hitting some winners after an abysmal start to the season. A profit of 14pts
from 113 bets.
Euro
Systems
Euro
Draw Systems
16 bets, 16 losers. -16pts. Early days!
Overall, 78.92pts profit from 528 bets.
A solid start to the month but after a poor
September, the systems aren’t in profit yet overall. Hopefully they can creep into profit after
the weekend games.
The issue of splitting the bets in a system up in GREEN bets and RED bets depending on the bets are selections in another system built on another algorithm is interesting imo.
ReplyDeleteGREEN bets are de facto the so called combined bets like D1-D6 or 21-31.
The official theory on TFA is, that a bet selected by more systems is ‘better’ than a bet selected by fewer systems.
We saw an example of this when I analysed D1. Splitting the bets using D6 as ‘splitter’ we got GREEN bets with 11.25% yield and RED bets with -23.31% yield.
I hinted that this nice theory not always is true.
To illustrate this I will offer a small analysis of systems 21 and 41.
I choose these systems for two reasons.
We will see a counter example to the theory.
The systems are part of the famous Steve’s portfolio this year.
The sample sizes are as always on TFA too small to make the results statistically significant. But we will get a feeling for it.
System 41 has been live in seasons 2012 and 2013 so my numbers are from these two seasons combined.
First let me take system 41.
Splitting by system 21 we get GREEN bets with 5.06% yield and RED bets with 2.26% yield.
This is in accordance with the ‘theory’.
Next I take system 21.
Splitting this system by system 41 we get of course the same GREEN bets with 5.06% yield.
But now the RED bets have a yield of 21.12%!!!
So goodbye ‘theory’.
There is no general rule, every case must be analysed on its own.
Does this have any implications for Steve’s portfolio?
Well, Steve is betting 2 units on the GREEN bets and 1 unit on the RED bets.
That’s fine for the RED41 bets, but maybe, just maybe Steve should think about upping his stake on the RED21 bets. Or maybe he should not use the RED41 bets in his portfolio.
I must add that the main result here is showing that there is no general rule.
Steve has actually a third system, 6-21-31, in his portfolio.
So my analysis is NOT an analysis of his portfolio.
Such an analysis will be too complicated for most readers I suspect.
Probably this comment will only be read by a few members anyway!
dmitri