Friday, 10 October 2014

Monthly Review for September 2014

I think for any new readers, it would make sense to read the review from last September before reading this review. You can find the previous September review here to provide some context around these results.   

The TFA systems are now into their 5th live season and this is the review of the first month this season. The format of the review will be similar to last season and I’ll look at the results of the various rating algorithms and then the systems that are filtered off the back of the ratings. I’ll deal with the UK outright bets first, then the UK Draws and lastly, the two types of European bets. With 6 different sets of bets now, there is a lot to discuss in these reviews but I’ll try my best to not make the reviews too dry (easier said than done at times!).

To recap, we have 61 live TFA systems this season. In addition, I know quite a number of subscribers are no longer using the UK outright systems at all for their betting and they are simply using the 4 algorithms and the value ratings to derive their own portfolio of bets to follow. Therefore, it’s important that as well as the 61 outright systems, I track the performance of the value ratings on each of the algorithms.

As discussed in the previous blog post, September 2014 has been the best month since my ratings went live for Home bets and the worst month for Away bets. It’s important we keep this in mind when looking at the rating and system results for September as we don’t want to draw any incorrect conclusions.

As usual, if anyone has any questions, please leave a comment or drop me an email.

Est Systems

Here’s the results for rating algorithm 1 split by value band:

37 winners from 95 bets on algorithm 1 and a loss of 2.1pts (-2.3%). The lowest value bets lost 5.5pts from 44 bets. Bets with a value of 5%+ made 3.3pts from 51 bets.

A loss of 2.3% can never be described as a good month but last season, this algorithm lost 19.4pts from 67 bets (-29%).  Based on this stat alone, it’s hard to get too downhearted about a small loss in the month.

Here’s the breakdown between Home and Away bets:

We can see that we hit a profit of 11.5pts from 49 Home bets and a loss of 13.6pts from 46 Away bets. Last season, this algorithm had 46 Away bets (lost 23.3pts) and only 21 Home bets (3.9pts profit).

Two things to take away from this. Firstly, the changes I made in the Summer to this rating algorithm have increased the number of Home bets as I outlined in the Summer. I expected more Home bets on all algorithms and with the removal of the minimum odds stipulation for Home bets, we now see the odd short priced Home bet appear on all algorithms. Both these factors contribute to more Home bets and after this month, I think we can see the benefit of this.

Secondly, given how difficult it has been for Aways bets this September compared to last September, I’m amazed the Away loss wasn’t even worse! This may be wishful thinking on my part (time will tell!) but I believe the algorithm is a much better algorithm than the algorithm I had last year for Aways. Obviously, it’s difficult to prove and one month doesn’t tell us much but I strongly believe a loss of 2.3% this month on this algorithm is a great result given the underlying results. Without a doubt, this September is more difficult than last September and yet, we have done a lot better overall. I think this will serve us well over the rest of the season.

Here’s the results for rating algorithm 2 split by value band:

27 winners from 71 bets and a loss of 1.9pts (-2.6%). The lowest value bets made a profit of 5.1pts from 33 bets and bets with a value of 5%+ lost 7pts from 38 bets.  A bit of a strange result given the fact that lower value bets tend to be much worse performing bets but it’s a small sample of bets and is going to be skewed by the Home/Away split since Away bets tend to be higher value and we know these would have had a nightmare this month.

Similar to algorithm 1, a 2.6% loss isn’t a disaster given the underlying results. Last September, this algorithm lost 16.4pts from 54 bets (-30%).  Much better than last season and this season was tougher.

Here’s the breakdown between Home and Away bets:

11.6pts loss from 40 away bets and a 9.7pts profit from 31 Home bets. Last season, the algorithm had 39 Away bets and lost 19.1pts and made a profit of 2.8pts from 15 Home bets.

Similar comments to algorithm one. We are seeing more Home bets than last season (twice as many) and this has really helped smooth the returns this month and should hopefully help the systems and service smooth the returns going forward. In addition, the Aways bets have performed much better this season than last season which again gives me hope that the changes I’ve implemented on the algorithm have been for the better!

Overall then, a small loss on both algorithms to start the season but compared to last season, the algorithms have performed much, much better which I’m putting down to the increased number of Home bets and the improved performance of Away bets.

How did the systems fare with trying to filter these bets?  Here’s the results for all 11 Established Systems:

121 winners from 342 bets for a loss of 41.8pts (-12.2%). Last season, the equivalent numbers were 60 winners from 262 bets for a loss of 92.4pts (-35.3%).  Similar comments to above I think. Never good to lose so many points in a month but compared to last season, it’s much better.

Looking at the results by system then, one thing that strikes me is the fact that the combined systems have had a shocker. The filtering from system 6 and 21 were shocking and this has led to massive losses on some of the combined systems. Those from last season will remember the same issues were apparent all season and it’s slightly frustrating this season has started the same way even though the algorithms have changed significantly!

System 6-21 has had a really bad month which is a little surprising considering 6 & 21 haven’t had a disaster but as you start to work down the combined systems, it’s not pretty at all.

In summary then, a tough month for the rating algorithms but I think they did better than last season and I’m quite pleased with how they performed. The combined systems are a different kettle of fish and it’s been a terrible start for these systems. Off the back of a terrible season last season, I think these systems now have massive question marks against them. The long-term results are dipping quickly and the systems have gone from looking like very solid systems to systems with a massive question mark hanging over them. One to watch over the next few months I think and I have no reservations about retiring systems which I feel are no longer adding anything to the service.

New Systems

Here’s the results for rating algorithm 3 and split by Home/Away:

Overall, a 2.6pts profit from 84 bets (3.1%). 8 winners from 43 Away bets and a loss of 11.7pts (-27%). 25 winners from 41 Home bets and a profit of 14.3pts (34.8%).

Looking at the results from last September, an overall profit of 3.8pts from 84 bets. 11 Away winners from 57 bets for an 18.2pts loss and 20 winners from 27 Home bets for a 22pts profit.

Apart from the fact that both years had the exact same number of bets (amazes me when things like this happen!), the key difference is again the split of Home/Away bets. We have gone from 67% Away bets and 33% Home bets to nearly a 51%/49% split. This is again due to the changes on the algorithm in the Summer although I’m a little surprised there weren’t more Away bets. Again, I actually think it’s good there weren’t more Away bets as no doubt we’d have lost more money on the Away bets!

I think given the Underlying results, it is a brilliant result for this algorithm to be making a 3.1% profit this month. I said the exact same last season but this is what separates algorithm 3 from the other 3 algorithms. The algorithm does a great job in controlling losses during difficult spells which means it never needs to dig itself out such a big hole as the other algorithms at times!

A really solid start for algorithm 3 this season again. Let’s hope it can build on this like last season.

Here’s the results for algorithm 4 split by Home/Away:

A loss of 8.9pts from 77 bets (-11.6%). Only 7 winners from 43 Away bets for a loss of 20.1pts (-46.8%). 19 Home winners from 34 bets for a profit of 11.2pts (32.9%).

Similar to above, looking at the same results last season shows an overall loss of 8.9pts from 98 bets. 11 winners from 63 Away bets for a loss of 23.8pts (-37.7%) and 21 winners from 35 Home bets for a profit of 14.9pts (42.4%).

The key thing here is the reduction in bet number. Algorithm 4 was the algorithm that got most work during the Summer as it was the worst performing algorithm and I felt like it needed tightening up as well as the other changes like more Home bets.  I can see I’ve tightened it up (21 less bets) and I can see I’ve adjusted the % of Home bets (35% last year has increased to 44% this year) but in terms of the overall results, things haven’t improved at all. If anything, you could argue I’ve made it worse as it lost an identical amount of points in both seasons (another amazing stat!) but it did it from more bets last year!

I guess the jury is out on algorithm 4 and the Away performance this season has been terrible. Even allowing for the tough Away conditions, to have a -46.8% ROI is about as bad as you can do I think and I think this rating algorithm has a lot to answer for.

I haven’t really commented on the value bands for algorithm 3 & 4 but it’s difficult to draw conclusions when all the Homes bands are profitable and all the Away bands are loss making. It then becomes a case of how many bets are in each band and if you have more Home bets in a band than Aways, it makes the results look better!

A poor start for algorithm 4 then and I think similar to the Est combined systems, there are a lot of question marks over system 41.

Let’s see how the New combined systems did with these results on the rating algorithms. Here’s the results for all 11 New Systems:

An overall profit of 7.7pts from 397 bets (1.9%).  Last season, the equivalent numbers were an overall loss of 87pts from 448 bets (-19.4%).

Given this September has clearly been a more difficult month than last September based on underlying results, the turnaround in these systems in 12 months is amazing. I won’t have been alone in having doubts about changing my algorithms over the Summer and refreshing them but I think after the first month, I’m quite proud of the fact I haven’t appeared to mess anything up! For these systems to make a profit this month is unreal and looking back historically, any time the underlying results have been as tough as this, these systems have suffered large losses in total.

I think the filtering on system 41 is clearly pretty good and to turn an 11.6% loss into an 18% profit is about as good as it gets. The filtering on system 31 is less reliable but it has been that way for a long time now. System 32 made a loss and system 33 made a profit but I’m much less confident about the filtering from system 31. I’ve said this before but not sure you need to worry about filtering system 31 too much as the algorithm is pretty good I think.

Due to the fact system 41 had a poor month, it has been reflected in a very poor month for system 31-41 which will have impacted a number of us. I had my reservations about system 31-41 over the Summer as it was clear system 31 was a brilliant system and system 41 less so, so using 31-41 always runs the risk that system 41 spoils the party and it has really pissed on the parade of system 31 this month.

System 31-42 is a popular system amongst the subscriber base and it’s nice to see a solid start this season after a horrible time last season.

Overall, over the moon with the New system results for September and if they can produce the same profits over the next few months as they did last season, I’ll be pretty happy I think.

Misc Systems

Here’s the results for the systems:

78 winners from 201 bets and a loss of 3.1pts (-1.5%). Not the best of starts for these systems but given the difficulty of the month and the other comments above about the rating algorithms and systems, a 1.5% loss isn’t a bad start to the season.

Last season, it was 58 winners from 232 bets and a loss of 65pts (-28%). Considering we know this September is tougher than last September, then it really helps to put this season’s results in context!

Looking at the systems then, 6-32, STOY and STOZ made small losses and 21-31, 6-21-31 and TOX made small gains. Again, given the fact 3 of the algorithms made small losses, I think these results reflect this well.

Here’s the splits of the results between Home and Away:

24 winners from 113 Away bets for a loss of 28.9pts. 54 winners from 88 Home bets for 25.9pts profit. 56% Away bets.

Looking at last season, 22 winners from 164 Away bets for a loss of 77.3pts. 36 winners from 68 Home bets for a profit of 12.2pts. 71% Away bets.

As well as the turnaround in performance from last season, the other significant shift is the change in mix between Home and Away bets. A big movement towards Home bets and this has really helped smooth the P&L so far this season.

Overall then, a small loss to start the season for these systems but compared to last season, it feels like a great month! ;)

Draw Systems

NB. Going into the season, these were the systems that I had most confidence in as I barely touched the ratings over the Summer since they were only built the previous Summer and the results last season in their debut season were brilliant in a season when the strike rate for draws was the lowest it had been since the 2006/7 season.

Here’s the results by system:

Only 10 winners from 95 bets and a loss of 59.8pts (-62.9%).  OUCH!!!!!

Comparing this to last season then, 39 winners from 176 bets and a loss of 38.3pts (-21.8%). 

Before commenting on the results, it is worth remembering that Sep-13 was very similar to Sep-14 in terms of underlying draws. The strike rate was 24.5% last year over 184 bets and 24.7% this year over 227 bets.

Clearly, we may have a problem here.  I’ve no idea why the number of draws has dropped so significantly from last season and more importantly, I can’t really explain the sizable loss either. What you can’t see here is that the systems suffered another large loss in the first weekend of October, so the results are currently even worse than we’re seeing here!

It’s difficult to add much to this. 95 system bets is a tiny sample but the filtered systems didn’t hit a winner and the combined systems hit 2 winners from 35 bets! Clearly, it’s not been a good start and is much worse than last season which was a bad enough start.

On one hand, part of me thinks this is just really, really bad variance and because it was a tough month for draws, the systems have struggled badly. The other part of me looks at the results last weekend, sees a very high strike rate for Draws and realises that my systems made another large loss and the filtered systems couldn’t hit a winner again!

Clearly, panic is setting in just a little for me personally as about 25% of my betting portfolio is made up of UK draw bets this season and this was an intentional ploy on my part given the results last season. I won’t be alone here and anyone who has taken on a draw system or two after last season must be scratching their head!

I guess if I look at the overall live results, the ROI is still decent enough and therefore, there is probably nothing to worry about but I’ll feel a bit better when I see these systems hit a few winners. I think the jury is out on these systems and another few weeks like this and I think I’d maybe have to really start looking at betting banks etc. for the systems and how much has been lost and whether the banks need revisited etc.

Let’s hope they turn the corner soon as if not, my fingers will be burnt along with a few others I suspect.

Euro Systems

Here’s the results so far:

Only had 1 bet this season and it was a winner. 8.6pts profit from 8 bets (107%) This was the first season the Euro bets had a bet in September as the bets didn’t tend to start until October! So, it’s better than last season then. :)

Euro Draw Systems

Here’s the results so far:

First season for these bets, so not any history to go on but 5 winners from 11 bets isn’t a bad start! A profit of 4.8pts from 11 bets (43.6%),

My only reservation about the Euro Draw systems is that as my ratings have been waiting for the first 6 games to pass in every league, the number of Draws in most leagues have been amazingly high! Therefore, these bets are going to kick in at a peak which added to my comments about how difficult it is historically to make money betting on draws in these leagues fills me with a little fear. Given the run the UK draws have had and my stakes on these, it’s an easy decision for me but I’ve reduced stakes on the Euro Draw systems this season before the bets even started! Happy to take a backseat approach to these systems like I sort of did last season with the UK Draws (still overstaked these IMO!) and when I see results, I’ll start to adjust stakes upwards once I get comfortable.

Overall, 83.5pts lost from 1,054 bets so far this season.

The two big concerns for me are the Est Combined systems (26.6pts loss) and the UK Draw systems (59.8pts loss). These two sets of systems account for 86.4pts lost which is more than the total loss the systems have suffered this month. We’ll keep an eye on them going forward but both these sets of systems have started October poorly last weekend, so I could do with an upturn soon or we’ll need to possibly make some tough decisions about whether or not we believe this is variance.......


  1. Graeme, before questioning some of you're systems I really think you should look at performance from a less correlated way. For example, you're draw systems. How many unique picks are we talking there (30?), and you have 5? unique winners there (10 are needed for a profit). I know you are a man who know's the numbers, then you can't be serious when you think 5 out of 30 winners (when 10 are needed for a decent profit) is bad, bad variance, I mean you ain't seen nothing yet....this is really just complete standard variance and it's impossible to draw any conclusions at all from it imo. Yes it's a bad start, but nothing more...


    1. Martin,

      Welcome to TFA.

      My compliment for a great guest post and comments that clearly shows you are a trained statistician like myself.

      Hopefully you will continue to make many more comments in the future.


  2. It can be difficult at times to understand exactly what the many numbers in the reviews represent.

    I will walk you through an example to help you understand some basics about systems, portfolio of systems and money management/staking strategy.

    My example is based on TFA UK Draw picks on Oct. 4 2014.

    System D1 had these picks:
    Date League Game Count
    10/4/2014 Bsq Prem Chester v Welling 1
    Macclesfield v Forest Green 1
    League 1 Scunthorpe v Doncaster 1
    League 2 Mansfield v Accrington 1
    Wycombe v Northampton 1
    Championship Middlesbrough v Fulham 1
    Wolves v Wigan 1
    Brentford v Reading 1
    SPL St Johnstone v St Mirren 1
    Premiership Hull v Crystal Palace 1
    Grand Total 10

    System D6 had these picks:
    Date League Game Count
    10/4/2014 Bsq Prem Chester v Welling 1
    Nuneaton v Lincoln 1
    League 1 Scunthorpe v Doncaster 1
    League 2 Mansfield v Accrington 1
    Wycombe v Northampton 1
    Championship Wolves v Wigan 1
    Brentford v Reading 1
    SPL St Johnstone v St Mirren 1
    Premiership Hull v Crystal Palace 1
    Grand Total 9

    D1 has 10 unique picks and the staking strategy is level staking, placing one unit on each pick.
    Similarly D6 has 9 unique picks and is also using level staking.

    We can make a portfolio of D1 and D6, and this portfolio had these picks:
    Date League Game Count
    10/4/2014 Bsq Prem Chester v Welling 2
    Macclesfield v Forest Green 1
    Nuneaton v Lincoln 1
    League 1 Scunthorpe v Doncaster 2
    League 2 Mansfield v Accrington 2
    Wycombe v Northampton 2
    Championship Middlesbrough v Fulham 1
    Wolves v Wigan 2
    Brentford v Reading 2
    SPL St Johnstone v St Mirren 2
    Premiership Hull v Crystal Palace 2
    Grand Total 19

    The portfolio has 11 unique picks and the staking strategy is no longer level staking.
    On some picks we place one unit and on other picks we place two units.
    This is called variable staking.

    So it’s important to know if we are looking at a single system like D1 or a portfolio of systems.
    They use different staking strategies.

    Now let me look at all TFA UK Draw picks in 2013.
    According to TFA reviews the profit from these picks were 229 units from 2535 picks, a healthy 9% yield.

    These numbers are based on a portfolio of a total of 11 draw systems and variable staking.
    Therefore some picks get one unit and some picks get 11 units.

    There are actually only 653 unique picks among the 2535.
    If we used level staking on the portfolio instead of variable staking we would place 653 units and the result would be a loss of 20 units!

    One way to look at these numbers, and I think this is the ‘official’ TFA way, is to credit the systems for the profit. By making a portfolio of 11 systems TFA has made a healthy profit.

    Another way to look at the numbers, and this is my way, is to credit the staking strategy for the profit. By using variable staking instead of level staking on the portfolio TFA has made a healthy profit.

    At this point I have to refer to a mathematical theorem.

    If a betting system is not profitable using level staking NO staking strategy will make a profit in the long run.

    Of course variable staking can make a profit in a short period like 653 bets in a year.
    But the loss of 20 units using level staking in 2013 does not prove the portfolio system to be profitable, on the contrary maybe.


  3. Good post Dmitri! What about the 4 main algorithms (6, 21, 31, 41)? Are they all in profit using unique bets level staking or are some of them only in profit using variable staking?

    1. Thank you!

      6, 21, 31 and 41 are actually not rating algorithms. They are systems obtained by filtering four unseen rating algorithms.

      7 and 8 are also systems. They are obtained by filtering system 6 and 7. So the unique bets for system 6 includes all bets of 7 and 8.
      Therefore we say that system 6, 7 and 8 are built on algorithm 1.

      Likewise other rating algorithms 2, 3 and 4 are used for (21, 22), (31, 32, 33) and (41, 42)

      Yes, 6, 21, 31 and 41 are all in profit using level staking.

      When you read the reviews all systems be it 6, D6 or D1-D6 use level staking.
      What can be confusing is f. ex. when the 11 UK draw systems are aggregated to a single profit/loss number. This number is the result of a portfolio of the 11 draw systems, and are obviously not using level staking.

      A much, much better number would be the result for the portfolio using level staking.

      You are asking if the systems are in profit.
      Although this is a relevant question a more important question is: Are these systems profitable?

      You want to know what happened in the past.
      I want to know what to expect in the future.

      A simple Excel sheet can answer your question. It’s exactly what the reviews does.
      To answer my question you need to apply statistical methods.
      And the answer is that until now none of the 4 systems can definitely be called profitable.
      If system 21 and 31 perform well in the next 1-2 seasons they might make the test.
      I can’t see system 6 and 41 qualify in the foreseeable future.

      Let me repeat an important theorem:

      If a betting system is not profitable using level staking NO staking strategy will make a profit in the long run.

      It’s so easy to use false logic here.
      Looking at the positive results for a portfolio of draw systems in 2013 does NOT show that this system is profitable.
      You have to start with the portfolio using level staking.
      And as I showed the evidence is very clear. Such a portfolio is NOT profitable.

      So now you are warned if you continue to bet on these draw picks!!


    2. Thanks for the explanation Dmitri. Good stuff!

      Sorry for mixing up algorithms and systems. Its a complicated service. You need to study a lot to understand it completely ;)

  4. I pray to God this latest comment is not from a subscriber as if it is, I give up!


  5. Hi Martin.

    Yeah, I was a little sensitive about the start the Draw systems have experienced this season but like you say, there were not a lot of bets at all. Unique bets aren’t really the way to judge the draw systems (as Dmitri points out) but system D1-D6 is the core system and it has started the season poorly. I’m starting to think it’s whatever system I put into Cassini’s league that is the jinx!

    Early days and hopefully things improve for the Draw systems but as I said in the post, the long-term results are OK and we are only into the 11th live month of results for the Draw systems. I’d like to see another season’s worth of bets before drawing any conclusions although Dmitri has already jumped the gun and implied these systems are useless.

    We shall see but I still have faith that long-term, these systems will do OK.



  6. Dmitri,

    We all know that backing each ‘unique’ draw pick is not profitable and therefore, it’s not really a method to judge the Draw systems by. The draw systems D1 & D6 clearly contain a lot of dud bets that shouldn’t be there and this makes them very inefficient. Therefore, what we need to do is find a method to filter out these dud bets as they will clearly pull down the profitability of the systems.

    We have witnessed it live last season that the way around the deficiencies on D1 & D6 is to ensure that you only bet on teams that appear on both systems. I would go as far to say that if a Draw pick only appears on one of the systems, I think it’s probably a lay or you use this information to find a Home/Away team to back but that’s for another day. I haven’t quite got my head around backing the opposite to what my systems tell me to but I know others do things like this.

    Just because unique bets on D1 & D6 are not be profitable DOES NOT mean that D1-D6 will not be profitable. The level stakes profit on D1-D6 last season provides some evidence on the contrary maybe.


    1. I agree with most of what you say.

      Maybe I was not clear enough in my posts and my warning against draw bets.

      So let me give it another try!

      When judging D1, D6, D1-D6 separately as three different betting systems it’s correct to use the numbers from the reviews. Because results are based on level staking.

      The problem occurs when someone gets the idea to make a portfolio P1 of these three systems.
      P1 will contain all unique selections from D1 and D6, but will stake these selections by variable staking, not level staking.

      My point is, that to judge P1 it’s necessary to first calculate the results using level staking.

      Is it possible that one of your members could get the idea of using P1 as his/her betting system?

      Let’s take a look at the only numbers this member has about the three systems D1, D6 and D1-D6, the results from the only live season, 2013.

      D1 made 17.54 units (3.49% yield) from 503 bets.
      D6 made 3.37 units (0.63%) from 539 bets.
      D1-D6 made 43.88 units (11.25%) from 390 bets.

      I know that not all members can determine from these numbers alone if it will be a good idea to pool the three systems into a portfolio P1. Because I can not. Nor can you!

      But the fact is, that P1 made -20.52 units (-3.14%) from 653 bets using level staking.
      This number is not shown in the review.

      You would show that P1 made 64.79 units (4.52%) from 1432 bets, because you use variable staking.

      P1 is not profitable. The level stake result shows this very clearly.
      Therefore the fine result for P1 using variable staking shall be seen as a lucky punch. In the long run P1 will lose money.

      Let me add that for other systems it will be a good idea to make the portfolio.
      It essentially depends of the correlation between the individual systems in the portfolio.

      As for system D1-D6 it’s way too early to make a judgement of the profitability.

      As of this date it has a yield of 9.28% from 419 bets.
      If it can continue to make 9-10% yield it will need about 1400 bets before it qualifies.


    2. Your last paragraph is interesting imo.
      So much that I have decided to offer another analysis.

      I will look at system D1.
      This is the first draw system you constructed on your new draw algorithm.
      I’m sure you have spent many hours on this work and you can only be satisfied to see it make 17.54 units (3.49%) from 503 bets in its first season (2013).

      If you had stopped here, there would be no problem, no questions.
      But you made another algorithm and from this a new system D6.

      This gave you the possibility to split the 503 D1 bets in a GREEN group consisting of the 390 bets that also are in D6 and the 113 RED bets that are in D1 but not in D6.

      The GREEN bets happened to be in profit, 43.88 units (11.25%) while the RED bets made a loss, -26.34 units (-23.31%)

      Remember, both the GREEN and the RED bets come from the exact same algorithm.

      If we assume that D1 will continue to make a profit going forward, and why should we not (?), then the most probable scenario will be, that the RED bets will do better and the GREEN bets will do worse in the future.

      But the GREEN bets are the bets in system D1-D6!!
      So this analysis raises a warning signal for D1-D6. Be careful.

      We will follow these bets with interest.
      So far we have 39 new D1 bets in 2014.
      Not a great sample of course.

      The RED bets are up 3.00% and the GREEN bets are down -17.28%.