Tuesday, 18 November 2014

November so far.....

I felt like I gave the ratings and systems lots of praise over the first two months of the season even though results weren’t great as I thought they did a brilliant job of minimising losses given how difficult the underlying results. The first half of November has been like someone has opened the floodgates though and the ratings and systems have been swept away in a tidal of losses unfortunately.

11 weeks into the TFA season and it’s safe to say that we haven’t experienced a start like this before for the Underlying results. The Away strike rate in the UK leagues is abysmally low for the games I’ve rated so far and the losses if backing all Aways is massive. As the number of games rated increases, things should start to trend towards the mean but it’s not happened yet and every time I think we’re seeing an upturn in the number of Away winners, a weekend like Saturday comes along and it’s a bloodbath for Aways again.

I’ve never had a losing November before and it is traditionally a very strong month for the service but unless we see a sharp change in fortunes, this could be the worst month I’ve ever seen for the systems. At a time when I could do with the systems getting a little bit of luck due to how difficult it has been, we’ve been hit by a number of late goals turning wins into losses and combine this with the difficult conditions and it’s not a pretty picture I’m afraid.

The good news is that this is as bad as I’ve ever experienced and assuming we’re all bankrolled appropriately, we will get through it as long as things don’t continue like this indefinitely. I had to delay the bet release for the weekend past as I was away on Thursday and releasing the bets later saved the systems a helluva lot of points as on the Thursday evening, we’d have been on even more of the League Two Aways. 10 games on Fri/Sat in League Two, 9 Home wins and 1 Away win. Unreal.

At times like this, my only solace is to look at the strike rates, look at the historical results and believe that things need to turn at some point. I look forward to things getting back to normal!

Here’s the update. The crazy thing is that we still have 2 weekends left this month. Another two weeks like this and we’ll be analysing the betting banks for the systems at month end. :(

Est Systems

 250 bets, 63 winners and a loss of 65.74pts. I had a quick look at the split between Homes and Aways – Aways lost 65.53pts from 185 bets.

A nightmare month so far for both sets of ratings and all 11 systems. 

New Systems

292 bets, 81 winners and a loss of 69.15pts. Aways lost 80.05ps from 176 bets.

An unbelievably bad month for these systems so far.

Misc Systems

191 bets, 50 winners and a loss of 43.74pts. Aways lost 48.62pts from 142 bets.

Same story as above. Aways have had a nightmare so far this month.

Draw Systems

41 winners from 127 bets and a profit of 15.39pts. 

Slightly better from these systems after a horrible start so far this season. I feel like these systems haven’t had the best of luck so far this season and the P&L should be a little better I suspect. I’ll take any sort of profit on this results update though!

Euro Systems

51 winners from 154 bets and a loss of 16.7pts.  A tougher month for these systems so far but our old friend the Draw has been a menace on these bets so far this month. Probably due a correction after the amazing start these systems had this season.

Euro Draw Systems

39 winners from 144 bets and a loss of 16.8pts. These systems have really struggled this season and of course, when the Euro Systems suffer from too many Draws, it’s not the same games these Draw systems are backing! I keep feeling like a correction is due on these systems as the Draw algorithms are running at -26% and -41% respectively so far this season. They can’t be as bad as this!

Overall, a loss of 197pts from 1,158 bets. An ROI of -17%. That’s probably as big a loss in two weeks as I’ve ever posted. The systems are now in a massive hole this season and all the good work of the last two months in the sense of not losing too many points has gone down the tubes.

It would be easy to start panicking and thinking something is wrong but the underlying results are to blame. I expect to the systems to lose when we see the results we’re seeing.  I can’t expect the systems to win when they are based on historical results and we’re seeing different trends at the moment to what we have seen historically. We have to hope (and pray!) things get back to some sort of normality and we can start moving forward again as at the moment, my ratings are taking a bit of a beating this season.

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