Tuesday, 4 November 2014

October 2014 Monthly Review

I’m going to try to keep this monthly review a little shorter than usual. Everyone is aware of the trends we are seeing, we all know they are short-term trends and therefore, trying to read too much into the results so far this season is a little meaningless. 

I spent a lot of time in the September review looking back at the previous season and highlighting how I felt the UK ratings were performing better after the Summer refresh. I haven’t seen anything that makes me change my mind although the actual results aren’t very impressive at all. However, as I keep reiterating, my ratings can’t turn water into wine and for example, if there are very few Draws in a month, I expect my Draw systems to make a massive loss. That’s part of the game since my ratings are based on historical data and for my ratings to be successful, I need the future to look something like the past!

Anyway, it wasn’t a disaster of a month overall but as always, depending on which systems or strategy you are playing, the results for all of us will look wildly different. October wasn’t a bad month for me and I hope the same was true for most of you but as always, there will be outliers at both ends of the scale.

Est Systems

Here’s the results for algorithm 1 in October:

A really good performance from this algorithm in a tricky month. A profit of 7.6pts from 91 bets at an ROI of 8.3%. It is split 2.3pts (4.6%) for Aways and 5.3pts (12.9%) for Homes.

Looking at the breakdown of value bands, I guess the disappointing thing is that the higher value bets didn’t have a great month. All bets with 10%+ value lost 3.3pts from 26 bets.

As always, drawing conclusions on the value bands on tiny samples is meaningless and we’re better waiting until the end of the season before drawing any conclusions that are meaningful.

The last thing I’d highlight is that the AH0 returns were better than the outright returns and therefore, the Draw has been a pest this month on this algorithm. Not too surprising given we know that backing all Draws in the month were profitable but it shows it was probably a better month for the algorithm than the results indicate.

Here’s the results for algorithm 2 in October:

A profit of 1pt from 88 bets (1.1%). Aways lost 7.2pts (-13.8%) and Homes made a profit of 8.1pts (22.6%). Similar comments to algorithm 1 in the sense the Draw was a pest here and the AH results were better than the outright results.

The low value bets (<5%) lost 3pts from 46 bets and the next two bands made a profit of 13.7pts from 30 bets. The highest value bands here (15%+) lost 9.8pts from 12 bets. As always, if filtering by value, you need to be careful as the higher value bets may have the highest ROI long-term but they also have the highest variance due to the low bet numbers each season.

Overall, just better than break-even in the month can never be described as a good month for an algorithm but given the Underlying results and the fact the Draw was a nuisance, I’m fairly contented with the results of this algorithm this month.

Here’s the results for the Est Systems this month:

A profit of 24.9pts from 378 bets (6.6%). Given everything I’ve written about the Underlying results this month with the Home & Draw bias, to achieve any sort of profit on these systems is a great result. 9 of the 11 systems were profitable with the highlight being system 7-22 which hit 6 winners from 11 bets (just like the good old days for any long-term readers!).

The combined systems in total made a profit of 13.8pts from 143 bets (9.65% ROI) and overall, I’m really pleased with these results this month. The filtering is a bit hit and miss as always with the small bet numbers but after a very tricky first month of the season, the systems have bounced back a little.

Overall, a respectable month for the rating algorithms and it has translated into an OK month for the Est systems. Still a long way to go to recover the losses from last month, never mind make a decent profit but it’s a step in the right direction.

New Systems

Here’s the results for Algorithm 3:

A loss of 2.1pts from 96 bets (-2.2%). Homes made a profit of 7.3pts (17.7%) and Aways made a loss of 9.4pts (-17.1%).

One thing that jumps off the page here is the performance of low value (<5%) Aways. A nightmare month for these Aways with 3 winners from 27 bets and a loss of 17.6pts. Low value Homes didn’t do much better if I’m honest and it was break-even from 25 bets. Looking at it in total, 52 of the bets were <5% value and this created a loss of 17.8pts. Ignoring these low value bets gives a performance of 15.6pts profit from 44 bets.

As I said earlier, we can’t draw too many conclusions for one month of bets for the value ratings as we know that the sample sizes are tiny. However, we do know that historically, this algorithm hasn’t suffered from the same issues as the other algorithms when it comes to low value bets and therefore, it’s disappointing to see these results. Low value bets have been profitable historically on this algorithm.

Here’s the results for Algorithm 4:

A poor month again and a loss of 4.5pts from 81 bets (-5.6%). Homes made a loss of 3.6pts from 27 bets and Aways made a loss of 1pt from 54 bets.

A very poor performance for Home bets considering the Underlying results this month and this sets alarm bells going a little I think. If the algorithm can’t make a profit this month with Home bets, I have my doubts long-term about algorithm 4.

With both algorithms losing then, I guess we should expect to see the New systems post a loss and probably a biggish loss at that. Here’s the results:

Ah, I tricked you there, didn’t I? Both algorithms made a loss but all other 9 systems made a profit. I can count on one hand how often I would expect this to happen, so it’s a really good month for these systems.

A profit of 41.6pts from 429 bets at an ROI of 9.7%.

System 31-41 in particular did great and it filtered out 21 bets from system 41 and these 21 bets hit only 3 winners. That’s a decent filter by anyone’s standards!

To be fair, system 32,33 and 42 all had good months filtering the base rating bets and this hasn’t happened too often over the last 18 months or so.

The higher combined systems produced some very good results this month again and after a horrible season last season, they have bounced back a little this season.

Overall, a decent month for these systems and hopefully they can build on this during the remainder of the season.

Misc Systems

Here’s the results for this month:

38.8pts profit from 275 bets at an ROI of 14.1%. A really good month for these systems in total although the results varied by system as you would expect.

I remember discussing the fact that the STOZ returns were poorer last month than the other two SG systems and we have the same issue here. STOZ only made a profit of 2pts from 55 bets whereas TOX made 7.5pts profit (35 bets) and STOY made a profit of 7pts (32 bets).

Last season, STOZ really struggled compared to the other two systems and we are seeing the same again. I guess the confusing thing is that in the first two seasons, STOZ did better than the other two systems.

Draw Systems

Here’s the results:

A profit of 25.7pts from 263 bets at an ROI of 9.8%. A better month for these systems but still in the red this season. Not had a massive number of bets so far this season and although the systems haven’t reached the heights of last season, it’s still early days. 

Euro Systems

Here’s the results:

A profit of 54.1pts from 108 bets at an ROI of 50.1%. A stunning month for these systems but as I said in the previous blog post, let’s not get too carried away! The rating algorithms aren’t as good as they have shown this month!

Euro Draw Systems

Here’s the results:

A loss of 72.8pts from 110 bets. A negative ROI of 66.2%!

Algorithm 1 hit 2 winners from 21 and algorithm 2 hit 1 winner from 17. If randomly guessing, you would hope to do better than this I think!

Again, similar to my comments for the Euro systems above, it is no coincidence that these systems are so bad as the strike rate was very low this month for Draws. Admittedly, the systems should have done a little better than this but a number of late goals didn’t help but that’s the joys of betting on Draws.

Overall, a profit of 112.3pts from 1,563 bets this month. A step forward after the losses in September but we could do with another solid month in November (hasn’t started great!).

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