Wednesday, 26 November 2014

Recent Results Update

It has been a really busy week for the systems since the last update. The systems were down 197pts from the first half of November and on Friday night last week, another 75pts were lost. To be 272pts down on the month, going into a Saturday set of selections is about as scary a month as I can imagine. Massive losses across most systems at this point for the season and there didn’t appear to be much light at the end of the tunnel.

At least a few times a season, everything appears to fall into place for the ratings, we get a little bit of luck, a few teams come back to win and it turns an OK day into an amazing day. Thankfully, this day arrived on Saturday. 365 system bets in total, a profit of 202pts. Wow!

It says it all that even after the best day of the season for the systems, they are still down for the month which is actually quite scary. Without Saturday, we’d have been looking at the worst month ever for the systems, so I’ve at least avoided this (for another month!).

There were too many highlights to mention them all but Altrincham coming back from 2-0 down with 10 men to beat Wrexham has to be the highlight for me. Wrexham did get a man sent off after their 2nd goal and then another man sent off in the second half, so it ended up 10 v 9 but even so, a great achievement to come back from 2-0 down.

The rest of the weekend was treading water, as was the midweek games last night.

In summary then, the systems have pulled back the deficit a fair bit for the month and although it’s going to be another losing month this season unless we hit another big weekend, the ratings and systems are really fighting hard to try to get through this horrible spell. Saturday showed what can happen when we get a few Away winners and if we can just get a few more weekends like this, the season can turn around for us I’m sure.

Here’s the results for all systems.

Est Systems

63 winners from 148 bets and a profit of 39.62pts.

The filtering is always going to look bad on updates like this as you really don’t want to filter out any bets but again, it feels like it has done worse than expected. The higher system bets didn’t do as well as I would have hoped which is the consistent story over the last 2 seasons now.

New Systems

58 winners from 120 bets and a profit of 61.86pts.

A great performance from the ratings here and the filtering wasn’t too bad I think. The filtering of these systems has worked consistently better than the Est Systems for the last two seasons really, so maybe not too surprising.

Misc Systems

38 winners from 82 bets and a profit of 24.14pts.

The SMG systems are having a nightmare of a season and STOZ is the worst of these. These systems rely on Aways predominantly and it’s not been the place to be so far this season.

Draw Systems

32 winners from 86 bets and a profit of 24.45pts.

A good comeback from these systems after a terrible start this season when the strike rate was very low. Things are starting to normalise now and the systems are back on an even keel. Just need them to start making profits now like last season!

Euro Systems

2 (yes 2!) winners from 74 system bets. A loss of 64.4pts.

Euro Draw Systems

41 winners from 86 games and a profit of 59.1pts.

The Euro systems still have the issue of too many games overlapping on both sets of systems and backing two outcomes isn’t profitable long-term as they both don’t have that big an edge. The over-round will eat away at any edge they have.

I guess we just have to stand back and let the best Euro systems win at the end of the day. First time this season the Euro Draw systems actually looked like they know what they are doing!

Overall, a profit of 144.77pts from 596 bets. We could do with a few more updates like this in the near future to build up some momentum as at the moment, the systems are working hard to stand still! 

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