Nice way to end the season!

I think the weekend sums up so much of what this football project is about for me and in addition, highlights how good/bad this season has been (depends if you drink from the cup of optimism or pessimism!)

As I said on Thursday, I would have struggled to bet on these teams if it wasn't for my ratings/systems suggesting I do. I said I would be amazed if Birmingham played poorly at home against Fulham but thankfully, my ratings don't have the same opinions as I do!

Fulham beat them very easily and Birmingham now have a serious chance of relegation as I'll be surprised if they can get anything at Spurs on the final day.

At 11/4, as I said on Thursday, Fulham were a high value bet but I honestly didn't think they'd win. They did though and at the end of the day, that's the power of systems and ratings. I know many people don't like following systems blindly and until this season, I was one of them but as the season has gone on, I've grown to like the idea of just placing bets because my Excel sheet tells me to! Yeah, there are times when it throws up bets when teams have injuries, suspensions, change of manager, motivational issues and so on but at the end of the day, the backfitted and backtested results include these games also. Hence, there isn't a good reason to deviate away from what the systems say. In addition, in many circumstances, the bookies have already taken these external factors into account as punters latch onto the obvious team to bet on and therefore, it usually pays to go against the herd at this betting game.

The Wigan game made me smile. Anyone who's been following all season will know about the number of times I've had late goals go against me, the number of teams throwing away 2-0 or 3-0 leads and of course, the number of times my teams have fought back from being behind to win the game. Yeah, not too many of the last set!

Anyway, I was pleased to see Wigan win and people may look at that and see a lucky win but it all needs to be put in perspective. Wigan appeared on 5 systems and therefore, it was a swing of 11.25pts for me. I can rattle off at least 5 times this season (probably many more) where I've had 20pts+ swings against me with last minute goals and it hurts a lot more when you've got a decent bet on a team at 2/1 who let a goal slip late on to draw!

The other game finished 0-0 and I was one goal away in that one from a perfect weekend. Of course, I was one goal away in the Wigan game from hitting 2 draws in 3 games again, so I shouldn't curse my luck too much!

Overall, a profit was made on every system and it was a profit of 27pts across all systems. DNB also had a decent day with 2 winners and the draw.

I'll be doing my May monthly review and then I'll do a quick post on here with a summary of the season. After that, the work begins for next season and the starting point is a summary of every system this season in a live environment. I'll also be taking a look at betting banks based on this season's live results and looking at any possible extra filters/tweaks for each system I can use to maybe increase the returns a little.

I'll do a quick post on here to let you know when the May monthly review is written as it should be fairly short to write.

Last bets this season......

I can't help but feel that this weekend is going to be a washout or a great weekend. There are only 3 value bets thrown up but Fulham and St Johnstone are both thrown up as mid-high value bets and appear on most systems.

Looking at the games and the teams involved, I think they are probably both high in value but being honest, I'm not sure I'd back these two without my ratings telling me to!

Fulham are away at Birmingham and although Birmingham haven't been as good at home this season as they usually are, they still don't lose many games at home to lower half sides. In addition, Birmingham have a much, much greater incentive than Fulham to win this one or at least, to not lose this one and of course, my ratings can't take this into account.

I wouldn't go as far to say I'll be amazed (I'm never amazed at this game!) but I'll be surprised if Birmingham let Fulham leave with 3pts on Sunday!

St Johnstone are an obvious bet away to St Mirren with 3 wins on the spin and St Mirren having won once in a long time in midweek. I've got St Johnstone around 13/8 in this one and therefore, they are clearly overpriced. However, again, I'm not sure they have much to play for and neither team do tbh.

The final team thrown up is Wigan at home and I see this one a real tricky tie. Not a clue about this one but this bet is more about West Ham being rubbish rather than Wigan being good!

Overall, I can easily see none of the teams getting a result this weekend for me and it could be a disaster way to end the season! We'll see what happens.

The Football Analyst Bets for 14th/15th May

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
15/05/2011 Premiership Wigan v West Ham Wigan 2.25 Ladbrokes
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
15/05/2011 Premiership Wigan v West Ham Wigan 2.25 Ladbrokes
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 9
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
15/05/2011 Premiership Wigan v West Ham Wigan 2.25 Ladbrokes
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
15/05/2011 Premiership Wigan v West Ham Wigan 2.25 Ladbrokes
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
15/05/2011 Premiership Wigan v West Ham Wigan 2.25 Ladbrokes
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 16
Date League Game Selection Odds
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.50 Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Wigan v West Ham Wigan 2.15
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP
1 Treble = 1 Bet

System 17
None

System 18
Nonje

System 19
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.50
15/05/2011 Premiership Wigan v West Ham Wigan 2.15
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets

System 20
None

Answers to Questions

As discussed the other day, there were a number of questions that people have asked me recently either via the blog or via email. I have pulled together answers to all these questions below. As usual, if there are any more questions, then please get in touch.

Once we get this weekend out of the way, I'll be taking a week or so off to recharge my batteries and then I'll be getting straight into the research for the next season. I've a lot of work to do this summer and I plan on throwing myself straight into it after my break.

I discuss this below but I've written off to the Secret Betting asking them if they'd allow me to post bets from my new algorithm in their forum next season before I share them on the blog. These bets will all be untried but I'm confident I can build something to work this summer. How they respond will determine exactly what happens with these bets next season but I need to try to get myself some publicity for here if I'm going to make a go of this on a more professional basis in future if I want to go down that road.

I hope the below answers most of the questions people have asked me.

1). Where can people sign up for next season?

At the moment, I’m still thinking about how things will look for next season. My initial thoughts are that I’ll continue to use the blog to post the bets which are proofed from this season and any analysis of the systems going forward.

I had a free email list this season where I sent the bets out each week. It is my intention to continue this next season and my only decision I need to make is whether I charge a small fee for doing this. Being honest, it doesn’t make a great difference if you receive the bets on the blog or via an email in terms of odds movement but of course, if I charged a small fee for an email distribution, it would give me greater incentive to run things more professionally and ties me into this project for another season. Aside from this, it also gives me some guaranteed return next season for 16 months of unpaid work so far!

In addition, some people would probably prefer to receive an email with a spreadsheet with the bets rather than pick them off the blog. Lastly, there was once or twice last season when I struggled to get time to post the bets on the blog in time for the games but I managed to send out my bets via email as I know how important it is to get all these bets proofed externally. An email list would ensure people get all the bets I hope.

As soon as I decide what I’m doing, I’ll let people know on here. I’ve had a few comments/emails saying that people would prefer to pay a small fee to receive the bets first rather than join a bun fight with lots of others to try to get best prices when I post on the blog. Hence, I can probably cater for both the free market and the subscription market and keep everyone happy!

I’m still waiting to hear back from the Secret Betting Club (SBC) but I’m hoping to proof the bets from my new rating algorithm on the SBC forum next season. If the SBC agree, I would post up these bets on their forum each week and then follow up the bets with a post on the blog. These bets are all untried of course (not built the rating algorithm yet!) and therefore, I wouldn’t dream of charging anyone for these bets. I would happily run a free subscription list for these bets too via email but I would like to give them to SBC members first via their forum.

Overall then, plans are still fairly fluid for next season. I feel like the above plan meets my aim of pleasing both sets of subscribers (free and paying) and also gives me access to a potential new set of subscribers via the SBC forum for the following season if they allow me to post my bets on there. I’ll update on here when plans are more solid.

2). Will numbers be capped?

I’m guessing this question was related to fact that I may charge people next season. As I say above, if I did charge a fee for next season, it would be to those people that wanted to pay to receive a spreadsheet with the bets before they are published on the blog. However, to be fair to people receiving the bets, I would cap the numbers if many people were interested in this option.

It’s really hard with something like this as I’ve no idea why anyone would pay (they’ll get the bets free later!) and therefore, it isn’t really a case of supply and demand. No idea about the sort of fee anyone would pay for this and I don’t want to put myself into competition with other tipster services next season as they’ll probably wipe the floor with me! So, in essence, I would cap numbers but no idea at what number and it would depend on the fee people would be willing to pay! I don't plan on trying to make a living from this. lol

3). When will bets be sent out and when will they appear on the blog?

This really depends on what happens with the SBC and my new rating algorithm but I’m thinking something along the lines of:

Thursday 7pm – (Paid or Free) Email list receives bets from ‘proofed systems’
Friday Noon – Bets from ‘proofed systems’ appear on blog
Friday 7pm – SBC forum receives bets from new rating algorithm
Late Friday – Free Email list will be sent the 'new' bets and 'new' bets posted on the blog

Of course, due to the fact this isn’t a professional tipping service, I could NEVER guarantee that these times and days are met. I’m often away from work on business which means I struggle to get things done and of course, I can’t put this project before my work or home life. However, my aim would be to keep things as consistent as I can each week.

If the SBC aren’t interested in me proofing my new bets exclusively on their forum, I’ll use the blog for these bets also and include them when I post the other bets.

4). Which bookies will prices be quoted from?

For this season, I have only used the bookies on oddschecker and Pinnacle as this is the bookmaker accounts that I have. I don’t have any accounts with bookmakers such as 10Bet, 12Bet, 188bet, 5 Dimes, Bet At Home, Betsafe, Centrebet, Dafabet, Extrabet, Gamebookers, Mybet, Nordicbet, SBO bet etc.

Going forward, I would continue to quote the best price I take from the bookies on oddschecker and Pinnacle only. Quite often, better is available at these other bookmakers that I don’t have accounts with but all my results include the price I take on my bets as it’s easier for my own bet recording!

I won’t pretend that everyone will get the odds on every bet no problem but in many circumstances, better odds will be available I think. Hence, in the long-run, it probably doesn’t make a big difference. In addition, many of the prices at kick-off are better than the odds I take myself, so I think as long as people act consistently; they’ll be OK and will get close to my returns.

5). Which systems will be live and what will they be called? What will the new systems be called and are they worth following?

I’ve thought long and hard about whether I change the names of these systems to something more attractive and easier to remember but I’ll stick with the system names as I’ve grown quite fond of them. Hence, the numbers will be staying!

Next season, I’ll have systems 6,7,8,21,22 and systems 6-21,6-22,7-21,7-22,8-21 and 8-22. 11 single bet systems in total that were proofed this season.

I’ll also have systems 31,32 and 33 which will be from my new rating algorithm for next season.

I’ll also have two other new systems called 6-21-31 and 7-22-32 which will show all the bets that appear on each algorithm. I’ve no idea what systems 31-33 look like yet, so I’m not exactly sure how these two systems will look either but I like to plan ahead.

Overall then, we’ll have the 11 systems from this season, plus 5 new systems for next season. 16 systems in total.

The 5 new systems will purely be trial systems for next season and should only be followed with minimum stakes at most!

This means that systems 9 and 23 will join the TFA scrapheap, along with systems 16-20 which were the multiple bet systems as they haven’t done as well as I hoped this season. I’ll explain more in my season review of why I’m dropping these systems but it is a fairly easy decision.

6). Is Double Chance a viable method to follow?

As I mentioned the other day on here, after a bit of thought and a bit of behind the scenes analysis, I don’t believe this is a viable method to follow going forward. Although the returns look OK and fairly steady, I don’t like the idea of suggesting some people back the win and the draw with my selections as it feels like I’m trying to cover my ass all the time which isn’t the intention. I’m happy for people to use Draw No Bet as a way to reduce the variance of the returns but Double Chance is playing on the fact that my ratings find a lot of draws and that’s the thing I want to avoid! Hence, there will be no more discussion or analysis involving Double Chance betting.

7). What betting bank does each system need? What are the drawdowns for each system?

This will be covered in the pre-season analysis after I’ve done more work on the ratings and systems this summer.

8). Can I graph the drawdowns for DNB v traditional HvA betting? Can I compare the volatility of DNB v HvA betting?

Yes and this will be covered in the summer after I’ve done more work on the ratings.

Reply to Greg

I've been asked a very good question from Greg and if I'm honest, it's something I should have thought about looking at before now but I'm always wary of trying to draw any meaningful conclusions from data that is 100% backfitted. Simply, you will NEVER manage to achieve a return in future that is similar to your results from backfitting a multi-variate model to your data. Simply, the more variables your model has, the more backfitted the data is likely to be and the less reliable this data is likely to be when it comes to trying to project the future.

Anyway, for this reason, I deliberately don't use the data from the very early seasons which I used to build the ratings as it would make my results look too good in all honesty!

Greg has asked me to graph the results from the early seasons along with the most recent seasons to get a long term view. I can't stress enough how misleading the results may be (what happens during backfitting isn't likely to happen when the systems go live blah blah) but caveats aside, I thought it was something worth looking at.

After a wee bit of work, I can now share these graphs.

Before doing this analysis today, my hypothesis would have been that the early seasons produce some sort of exponential returns if I graph a trend curve over the P&L line and then as we move into more backtesting and less backfitting, things level off. Here's the results below:







The top graph shows the P&L as requested by Greg. The second graph shows the same P&L but I have highlighted where the periods of backfitting take place, along with where there is a mixture of backfitting/backtesting and where backfitting only occurs. At the end, we can also see the live results this season.

The final graph is one for my own curiosity only and it shows the trend line from fitting a polynomial trend line to the 6th degree. i.e. Ax^6+Bx^5+Cx^4+Dx^3+Ex^2+Fx+G

As you can clearly see, the data that is backfitted seems to produce a much more exponential curve whereas the backtested data/live data produces something more akin to a linear curve. During my backfitting, my aim was to try to produce 45 degree profitability curves and you can see from my previous post that the backtesting produced what I was after.

As an aside and you'd need to look at my previous post again, the first half of this season in the live environment actually produced returns which were more in line with an exponential trend (i.e. the backfitting rather than the backtesting) but the second half of the season has put paid to anything like a 45 degree P&L this season as it has been loss making.

Just on that loss making point. You can see much bigger drops during the backtesting seasons using my rating algorithms than I experienced during the backtesting amazingly. Something I hadn't noticed before but clearly, my backtesting seemed to work out pretty well as it was a nearly perfect 45 degree P&L line. In reality, looking at these 9 seasons now, there has been at least 2 periods where the systems lost more points that they have lost since Christmas this season. Hence, my systems aren't on a worst ever run.

I hope the above answers your question Greg. It's actually helped me out doing this as I've realised that my systems have had a worse run than they are on at the moment. Hence, I'm probably going over the top about how bad this run is. Yeah, it's the worst in 5 seasons but it's not the worst in 9 seasons...... lol

A picture paints a thousand words.....

I'm in the process of writing up the question and answer post I promised on here the other day but I'm waiting to hear back from someone relating to my 3rd algorithm I hope to build. If I don't hear back within the next day or so, I'll post up the answers to the questions I can answer and I'll explain my thinking around the 3rd algorithm bets.

In the meantime, to keep the blog ticking over, I thought I'd do a quick post looking at the returns of all the system bets combined. I had a good comment exchange with Mouldhouse on my last post and he raised the point that he'd much rather follow a larger number of bets from a combination of systems rather than just follow one system with a high ROI.

My own thinking and gambling philosophy is quite similar as with the larger number of bets, you are less likely to be affected by short-term variance. Obviously, people get around this by following more than just tipster and this has the same effect in many ways but in my case, I only follow my football bets in my portfolio, so I need to play a good number of bets each week to try to reduce the risk.

Anyway, I thought it was worth posting up a few graphs showing the returns in points from following all of the system bets. I thought it would be good to look at the last 5 seasons (all results), the last 3 seasons (backtested and this seasons results only) and of course, this season's results.

I think at times, it is pretty easy to get bogged down in ROI with this game and I know for a fact that not everyone will understand my tables I post as they contain a lot of information and not everyone likes to analyse tables and numbers. However, a picture can tell the story at times and I think these 3 graphs tell the story of my football modelling pretty clear!







There is so much you can say about these graphs but unusually for me, I'm not going to say a thing! As I said above, I honestly believe these 3 graphs tell the story of the football systems pretty well.

I'll be back later or tomorrow when I finish the Q&A post I'm writing.

No Midweek Bets

As I suggested last night, there are no midweek bets this week. That only leaves this weekend as the last set of bets this season and then that's the season completed for my ratings. I'm away when the last set of games in the Premiership are played the weekend of the 22nd and therefore, there will be no ratings produced for these games in advance of them taking place.

I'll post up any bets for this weekend on Thursday night.

Just a couple of quick things. I've had a comment from 'Your New Blog Reader' on a post a few days ago suggesting that the draw % in the leagues this season is only slightly higher than previous seasons and therefore, my numbers don't look entirely accurate.

There is a simple explanation (all my draw analysis is on my system bets and not on all the leagues) and my full reply is in the comment section but I think it does raise an important point about this blog. All of the building of the ratings and systems was done behind closed doors in the TFA forum over 12 months ago and therefore, it is difficult for blog readers to pick up the thread at times on here. In addition, all my early analysis this season when things were going great sits within the TFA forum and it was only at Christmas that I started to use the blog for any analysis. Until Christmas, the blog was purely a results tracking blog as that's the way I wanted it to be with no posts on any detailed analysis.

If anyone has any questions about anything I post, don't be afraid to ask me. I'd rather people ask me what's going on rather than just going on and not understanding what's going on.

I've also had a question from someone this morning looking for a high strike rate system that only looks at homes. I've mentioned this in the TFA forum plenty of times but it's fairly easy to create your own system using the other system bets. In addition, if people ask me to build a system to suit their particular needs, it's fairly easy for me to point out a system for them to follow.

I'll add this to my list of things to do this Summer but to give you a flavour of how easy it is......

I know the second algorithm finds much stronger home bets than the first algorithm. This can be seen by the fact that over the 5 seasons now, System 21 has an ROI of 25% on homes against an ROI of 12% on System 6.

Looking at this season only, System 21 has an ROI of 15.3% and system 6 has an ROI of 2.1% on Homes. Hence, it fits in with the backtesting although again, both systems have disappointed this season on homes (and aways!)

So, why can't we just back the homes on system 21? Well, we can do. Over the last 5 seasons, the strike rate has been 66%,64%,63%,68% and 60% this season. The profits have been 40pts,27pts,29pts,32pts and a measly 14pts this season.

This isn't doing anything fancy but isolating the home bets from the away bets on one system. It has produced 558 bets in 5 seasons and 93 bets this season in particular.

Following 100 bets in a season for strong home bets isn't everyone's cup of tea (definitely not mines!) but I can see the attraction of backing 1 or 2 teams a week on average with decent stakes at odds of around Evs.

As I keep saying on here and in the TFA forum, I'm sure that there is a system that suits everyone and it's important that people think about what sort of system suits them before next season. There is no guarantee that their system will be profitable next season (there is never a guarantee at this game that your edge remains from one season to the next) but I personally don't mind losing money following something I believe in and that's been my attitude since day one on the footie.

I hope this answers the question from the anonymous poster this morning. I think having ratings that can make a profit is one thing and being honest, it's not the hardest thing in the world to produce footie ratings to make a small profit over a large sample of bets. The hardest thing in the world is to use the ratings to maximise your profit and that's the bit I think I can do better than anyone else in this game hopefully!

Much Better

A much better day yesterday with a profit being made on every system.

They key game was the game I highlighted on Friday and Aldershot at 3/1 managed to win easily away at Lincoln. As I suggested on Friday, they looked to be massive value (they’d usually be 6/4 in that game and I would have still backed them to win!) but you can never be sure at this time of the season if the ratings work as well as they do at other times.

Thankfully, they won 3-0 and that set up the ratings to have a very good day. I also found Swindon at 4/1 and St Johnstone at 5/2, so it was always going to be a good day. A profit of 8pts was made from the 12 games picked out.

7 wins, 4 losses and 1 draw (I know, amazing!) was found yesterday and as usually happens when the draw % is very low, the ratings do very well. As I’ve said all season, I just need the draw % to hit the average mark and the ratings will make nice profits but since Christmas, this hasn’t happened very often! Days like yesterday help to repair some of the damage done but to put it in perspective, it wins back 25% of last month’s losses!

Overall, there were 76 system bets which produced 40 wins, 25 losses and only 11 draws. A profit of 29pts across the systems.

With the low draw %, DNB didn’t do nearly as well with a profit of 11pts only and of course, Double Chance performed poorly and basically broke even on a good day for the systems! The multiple bets were useless again and that’s one trial that won’t continue beyond this season.

Just on that point, I’ve been thinking long and hard about next season and although it’s not the really the post to announce it (it’s likely to get lost in here), I WON’T be suggesting Double Chance as a way to follow my bets going forward. I’ll even stop tracking it as it just confuses the picture a little I think with my results.

My issue with DC is that it relies on the ratings finding draws. As I know only too well, draws are the thing I want to avoid with this game and therefore, it doesn’t feel right that I suggest DC as an alternative method to follow my bets. All my work this summer will be about trying to adjust the ratings to find less draws and therefore, I hope to reduce the profitability of DC betting significantly. If not, I’ll fail at this game.

In addition, it feels a little like I’m using DC as a back-up plan if things don’t work with my ratings and that’s not my intention. The purpose here is to find teams to win and therefore, tracking DC returns seems slightly unfair and I don’t want to be judged on DC. If DC does well, it means my ratings aren’t working as well as they should do like this season!

The other obvious point about DC is that backing the draw is heavily loss making as I’ve shown a few times on here. Yeah, it has been very profitable in 2011 but that’s a one-off as I keep saying. Long-term, although DC may be profitable, it is due to the selection winning that makes it profitable. Bringing in the draw just reduces profitability as backing the draw isn’t profitable overall.

What this means though is that my 3rd rating algorithm will definitely be based on DNB next season. I’ll keep my first two algorithms and the new one I build will look to maximise DNB returns going forward.

People could argue that DNB is also a cop out with my ratings since I’m still having something on the draw but simply, I see DNB as a way to reduce the variance in the returns and nothing more. Long-term, DNB won’t beat backing the teams to win outright but many people would happily forego a risky 15% return for a more likely 10% return and therefore, that’s why DNB may be useful for some people.

A quick update on the season overall. After yesterday’s results, it means that the first rating algorithm is sitting with an ROI of 3.8% this season from 570 bets (system 6) and my second rating algorithm is sitting with an ROI of 4.1% from 486 bets (system 21). Teams that appear on both algorithms (6-21) is sitting with an ROI of 8.2% from 295 bets.

Obviously, I could point to the other systems and some systems have a much higher return and (some lower admittedly) but overall, looking at all the games this season on all systems, the ROI is 8.1% from 2,877 games.

I know it isn’t what I aimed for at the start of the season (10%+ was a minimum and 21% was the target) but now that the season is winding down, an ROI of 8% or thereabouts isn’t a disaster I guess. I’ve been exchanging emails with a couple of guys about next season who have used other ratings/tipsters this season and they seem to be suggesting that my ROI this season may actually be above the others in the tipster market and at the very least, allows me to hold my own in the market. Definitely gives me some hope that I haven’t wasted 17 months of my life for nothing!

Thanks for the couple of comments to my last post. I’m guessing that the questions I put up in the post maybe cover most of what people want to know but if there are any more questions, please let me know. I’ll start writing that Q&A post early this week and hopefully get it posted up later this week.

There are 7 midweek games this week and looking quickly, I can’t see there being a bet but I’m nowhere near updating the stuff from yesterday yet. I’ll post up any bets tomorrow night.