I'm in the process of writing up the question and answer post I promised on here the other day but I'm waiting to hear back from someone relating to my 3rd algorithm I hope to build. If I don't hear back within the next day or so, I'll post up the answers to the questions I can answer and I'll explain my thinking around the 3rd algorithm bets.
In the meantime, to keep the blog ticking over, I thought I'd do a quick post looking at the returns of all the system bets combined. I had a good comment exchange with Mouldhouse on my last post and he raised the point that he'd much rather follow a larger number of bets from a combination of systems rather than just follow one system with a high ROI.
My own thinking and gambling philosophy is quite similar as with the larger number of bets, you are less likely to be affected by short-term variance. Obviously, people get around this by following more than just tipster and this has the same effect in many ways but in my case, I only follow my football bets in my portfolio, so I need to play a good number of bets each week to try to reduce the risk.
Anyway, I thought it was worth posting up a few graphs showing the returns in points from following all of the system bets. I thought it would be good to look at the last 5 seasons (all results), the last 3 seasons (backtested and this seasons results only) and of course, this season's results.
I think at times, it is pretty easy to get bogged down in ROI with this game and I know for a fact that not everyone will understand my tables I post as they contain a lot of information and not everyone likes to analyse tables and numbers. However, a picture can tell the story at times and I think these 3 graphs tell the story of my football modelling pretty clear!
There is so much you can say about these graphs but unusually for me, I'm not going to say a thing! As I said above, I honestly believe these 3 graphs tell the story of the football systems pretty well.
I'll be back later or tomorrow when I finish the Q&A post I'm writing.