Wednesday, 11 May 2011

A picture paints a thousand words.....

I'm in the process of writing up the question and answer post I promised on here the other day but I'm waiting to hear back from someone relating to my 3rd algorithm I hope to build. If I don't hear back within the next day or so, I'll post up the answers to the questions I can answer and I'll explain my thinking around the 3rd algorithm bets.

In the meantime, to keep the blog ticking over, I thought I'd do a quick post looking at the returns of all the system bets combined. I had a good comment exchange with Mouldhouse on my last post and he raised the point that he'd much rather follow a larger number of bets from a combination of systems rather than just follow one system with a high ROI.

My own thinking and gambling philosophy is quite similar as with the larger number of bets, you are less likely to be affected by short-term variance. Obviously, people get around this by following more than just tipster and this has the same effect in many ways but in my case, I only follow my football bets in my portfolio, so I need to play a good number of bets each week to try to reduce the risk.

Anyway, I thought it was worth posting up a few graphs showing the returns in points from following all of the system bets. I thought it would be good to look at the last 5 seasons (all results), the last 3 seasons (backtested and this seasons results only) and of course, this season's results.

I think at times, it is pretty easy to get bogged down in ROI with this game and I know for a fact that not everyone will understand my tables I post as they contain a lot of information and not everyone likes to analyse tables and numbers. However, a picture can tell the story at times and I think these 3 graphs tell the story of my football modelling pretty clear!

There is so much you can say about these graphs but unusually for me, I'm not going to say a thing! As I said above, I honestly believe these 3 graphs tell the story of the football systems pretty well.

I'll be back later or tomorrow when I finish the Q&A post I'm writing.


  1. Another interesting post.You've mention results going back to 2002 but not using them due to backfitting.Can you publish the graph please so we can see the returns from 2002.I want to see the gradient of the profit line over a longer period.


  2. Hi Greg.

    Mouldhouse commented the other day about the standard of comments on here and this is another good comment.

    I'll need to go and dig out the data as it's not held in my results sheets but I can combine this earlier data with the more recent data and draw a graph and show it. I've never actually looked at this or thought about what it may look like (I could hazard a guess it will look exponential in the early years and level off somewhat as I've seen the ROI in the early years when I built the ratings) but it's a good thing to look at I guess as it does show the longer term picture.

    I'll get back to you in a bit.