Monday, 16 May 2011

Nice way to end the season!

I think the weekend sums up so much of what this football project is about for me and in addition, highlights how good/bad this season has been (depends if you drink from the cup of optimism or pessimism!)

As I said on Thursday, I would have struggled to bet on these teams if it wasn't for my ratings/systems suggesting I do. I said I would be amazed if Birmingham played poorly at home against Fulham but thankfully, my ratings don't have the same opinions as I do!

Fulham beat them very easily and Birmingham now have a serious chance of relegation as I'll be surprised if they can get anything at Spurs on the final day.

At 11/4, as I said on Thursday, Fulham were a high value bet but I honestly didn't think they'd win. They did though and at the end of the day, that's the power of systems and ratings. I know many people don't like following systems blindly and until this season, I was one of them but as the season has gone on, I've grown to like the idea of just placing bets because my Excel sheet tells me to! Yeah, there are times when it throws up bets when teams have injuries, suspensions, change of manager, motivational issues and so on but at the end of the day, the backfitted and backtested results include these games also. Hence, there isn't a good reason to deviate away from what the systems say. In addition, in many circumstances, the bookies have already taken these external factors into account as punters latch onto the obvious team to bet on and therefore, it usually pays to go against the herd at this betting game.

The Wigan game made me smile. Anyone who's been following all season will know about the number of times I've had late goals go against me, the number of teams throwing away 2-0 or 3-0 leads and of course, the number of times my teams have fought back from being behind to win the game. Yeah, not too many of the last set!

Anyway, I was pleased to see Wigan win and people may look at that and see a lucky win but it all needs to be put in perspective. Wigan appeared on 5 systems and therefore, it was a swing of 11.25pts for me. I can rattle off at least 5 times this season (probably many more) where I've had 20pts+ swings against me with last minute goals and it hurts a lot more when you've got a decent bet on a team at 2/1 who let a goal slip late on to draw!

The other game finished 0-0 and I was one goal away in that one from a perfect weekend. Of course, I was one goal away in the Wigan game from hitting 2 draws in 3 games again, so I shouldn't curse my luck too much!

Overall, a profit was made on every system and it was a profit of 27pts across all systems. DNB also had a decent day with 2 winners and the draw.

I'll be doing my May monthly review and then I'll do a quick post on here with a summary of the season. After that, the work begins for next season and the starting point is a summary of every system this season in a live environment. I'll also be taking a look at betting banks based on this season's live results and looking at any possible extra filters/tweaks for each system I can use to maybe increase the returns a little.

I'll do a quick post on here to let you know when the May monthly review is written as it should be fairly short to write.

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