I’ve apologised before for the names of my football systems in the sense they aren’t exactly the most original. Systems 6,7,8,21,22 didn’t really get the juices flowing and being honest, I’m not sure systems 6-21, 6-22 and so on is any better.
Well, the 3 systems from the new Similar Games model are going to be called TOX, STOY and STOZ! I’m not sure this is really an improvement on the numbers theme but no one can accuse me of trying to be melodramatic when it comes to naming these systems! They are pretty boring names at the end of the day.
Putting the names of these new systems to one side, how do they look from a performance point of view?
Firstly, a common theme from these 3 new systems is the fact there don’t appear to be many bets each season. TOX only had 34 bets last season, STOY had 27 bets last season and STOZ had 49 bets last season. Clearly, this raises an issue in the sense we don’t really know if these systems have an edge or not as we don’t have a large enough sample of bets.
Looking in slightly more depth, the trend on all the systems is for less bets each season. Therefore, we’ll just need to see how many bets are thrown up this season. If it is any lower than last season, then these systems become meaningless I suspect.
Putting the number of bets issue to one side, the ROI on each system is higher than any other system I’ve managed to create! TOX has an overall ROI of 34%, STOY has an overall ROI of 41% and STOZ has an overall ROI of 28% (but nearly 50% for the last two seasons!)
Similar to what I’ve done with the other new systems for next season, I’ve looked at all the historical results in depth and looked at the P&L, drawdown, performance by league, season, odds and so on. All the results are available for everyone to look at here. Scroll down to the bottom for these newest systems.
Similar to the other new systems next season, I suggest that we all paper trade these systems and see how do in the live environment. If they achieve returns within 50% of their backtested results, then we can possibly see a return of 20%-25% next season which would be an amazing return, even allowing for the fact we aren’t going to get a lot of bets each season. Of course, the Similar Games Model might be a crazy idea and we’ll see losses next season on these new systems. We’ll see what happens.
If anyone has any questions, please leave a comment.