I’ve apologised before for the names of my football systems in the sense they aren’t exactly the most original. Systems 6,7,8,21,22 didn’t really get the juices flowing and being honest, I’m not sure systems 6-21, 6-22 and so on is any better.
Well, the 3 systems from the new Similar Games model are going to be called TOX, STOY and STOZ! I’m not sure this is really an improvement on the numbers theme but no one can accuse me of trying to be melodramatic when it comes to naming these systems! They are pretty boring names at the end of the day.
Putting the names of these new systems to one side, how do they look from a performance point of view?
Firstly, a common theme from these 3 new systems is the fact there don’t appear to be many bets each season. TOX only had 34 bets last season, STOY had 27 bets last season and STOZ had 49 bets last season. Clearly, this raises an issue in the sense we don’t really know if these systems have an edge or not as we don’t have a large enough sample of bets.
Looking in slightly more depth, the trend on all the systems is for less bets each season. Therefore, we’ll just need to see how many bets are thrown up this season. If it is any lower than last season, then these systems become meaningless I suspect.
Putting the number of bets issue to one side, the ROI on each system is higher than any other system I’ve managed to create! TOX has an overall ROI of 34%, STOY has an overall ROI of 41% and STOZ has an overall ROI of 28% (but nearly 50% for the last two seasons!)
Similar to what I’ve done with the other new systems for next season, I’ve looked at all the historical results in depth and looked at the P&L, drawdown, performance by league, season, odds and so on. All the results are available for everyone to look at here. Scroll down to the bottom for these newest systems.
http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/new-systems-for-201112-season.html
Similar to the other new systems next season, I suggest that we all paper trade these systems and see how do in the live environment. If they achieve returns within 50% of their backtested results, then we can possibly see a return of 20%-25% next season which would be an amazing return, even allowing for the fact we aren’t going to get a lot of bets each season. Of course, the Similar Games Model might be a crazy idea and we’ll see losses next season on these new systems. We’ll see what happens.
If anyone has any questions, please leave a comment.
Hi Greame,
ReplyDeleteDid you ever think of or tested the results of your system selections if used with the asian handicap lines ? I see you have looked at DNB and DC but haven't seen AH, if it is here anywhere I apologize as I'm new to your blog.
Kind regards,
Mark
Hi Mark.
ReplyDeleteApologies for the delay in replying mate, I’ve been really busy this week.
To answer your question, no, I haven’t looked at the AH lines. I have looked at DNB and DC but I decided I had to narrow it down a little and DC has been dropped from all my analysis and I even deleted it from my data to ensure I didn’t go down this road again!
It isn’t easy to get AH betting for historical games but even if I could, I don’t think it’s fair to have lots of different ways of measuring performance as it can muddy the waters a little. I’d rather just be judged on how these systems do backing win only and if people want to cover the draw, then fine, it’s up to them.
I hope this makes sense.
Graeme
Hi Greame,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the answer. I understand what you mean about it. I have been working on some systems too with good results in the past. I've only came across your blog recently but had a quick look at your past selections etc. and I have to say there are a lot of them similar to mine from past season. Have you got an e-mail address I can contact you at all as I wanted to discuss something with you.
Kind regards,
Mark
Yeah Mark.
ReplyDeleteDrop me a note at graemedand@hotmail.co.uk
If you want a quick reply, today is good as I'm going to do some footie stuff tonight.
Graeme