Thursday, 28 July 2011

If this was last season......

I mentioned to Justin in a comment earlier this week that I’d try to take a quick look at the weekend games to see if any bets stand out. Of course, my ratings can’t work until at least 4 games take place and I don’t start using them until the first 6 games take place, so I can’t actually model anything using data from this season.

However, if I assume that the teams just continued on from from last season, then I can get something from my ratings at the end of last season, adjusted for the season's performance to data. I wouldn’t place much emphasis on it though as clearly, teams just don’t start the next season the way they finished last season. There could be massive changes to any team and of course, fitness, pre-season form, managerial changes etc. etc.

Anyway, for a bit of fun, I’ve had a look at the SPL games. Surprisingly, there is actually a very decent value bet thrown up.

I have ICT at around 4/6 against Hibernian this weekend whereas they are available at 11/8.

Looking at why this has happened, I have ICT as one of the form teams in the SPL at home. There are too many stats to quote but the key stat looking at the ratings is that in their last 4 games against bottom half opposition at home, they’ve won 2-0,1-0,3-0 and 2-0. Against top half opposition away from home, Hibs have lost 8 of their last 9 games, including losing their last 6. These two factors combined appear to be throwing up a high % chance of an ICT win.

All the other rating factors also point to Hibs struggling to muster too many shots on goal away from home and combined with ICT’s strong home defence, it is all pointing to a strong home win.

To put it in perspective though, ICT played their first game this season away to Motherwell and lost 3-0. They mustered 2 shots on target in the game. Hardly encouraging.

However, Hibs lost 2-0 at home to Celtic and couldn’t muster a shot on goal there.

Based on the scores from last weekend, I’m not sure you could seriously contemplate backing ICT but if we assume the teams perform like they did last season, ICT will play much better at home this weekend and Hibs will struggle badly away from home.

I would have been all over ICT last season at the end of the season but happy to bide my time until the first 6 games are played this season. Incidentally, this is one of the games where DNB is also showing as value but this is down to the high home % rather than the draw being value.

I'm glad I don't need to give a write up for every game I give out next season. I'd never get the bets out each weekend!


  1. For the record,fink tank has this game rated,

    62.7% Inverness CT
    21.4% Draw
    15.8% Hibs


  2. Hi Alan.

    I’m not sure how Fink Tank generate ratings when there is only one game played. Not sure if they just have a rolling system where last season’s results just carry on to this season. That’s what I did for this weekend and it’s interesting they are fairly close to my findings.

    I discussed this on the blog last season about how similar my ratings are to Fink Tank at times. The same would be true for other guys who have built their own ratings.

    I haven’t ever said on here that what I’ve done is unique with regards to the football. I know it’s not. Others have done what I’m doing well before me and in future, I’m sure someone will come along with something even better than what I’m doing now. Hopefully by then, I’ll have made enough money to not care too much about it!

    I see ICT have been very well backed over the past 24 hours. I haven’t had a bet on them as I’m fairly disciplined when it comes to betting on the footie. I’ll have my first bet in 5 weeks and not a minute before then. :)


  3. Hi Graeme,

    Thanks for the e-mail, I hope you're well mate and ready for the new season. I've started a simple trading blog to help stay in touch with people

    I've added TFA as a link. Somehow managed to lose your e-mail address after switching my own to gmail.

    Catch up soon,

  4. Hi Mark.

    I've added a link mate.

    Looking forward to reading and following your progress mate.

    Good luck with your trading.