Sunday, 30 September 2012

Had Worse Weekends!

A quick update from the weekend as I want to keep the in depth thoughts until I do the monthly review later this week. 

I was actually late in sending out the email this weekend as there were so many possible bets and with the odds fluctuations on Thursday being quite dramatic, I was adding and deleting games right up until the time I sent the email out.  Quite crazy really but I really believe that you have to play this game properly and therefore, as the odds move, the teams move between systems. Anyway, it was fun and games for me right up until I settled on the bets and finalised the odds.

In total, there were exactly 350 system bets this weekend and this would be a big weekend in terms of building momentum for the season or the systems digging a hole they would have to try to get themselves out of over the next few months.

Well……let’s just say that I’ve had worse weekends!

Here’s the usual run-down of results:

Established systems – 115 bets with 52 winners. A profit of 46.65pts.

New systems – 147 bets with 74 winners. A profit of 110pts. Yes, 110pts!

Misc systems – 77 bets with 26 winners. A profit of 14.03pts.

Under/Over Systems – 11 bets with only 3 winners. A loss of 4.71pts.

Overall, 350 bets and a profit of 165.97pts.  Not a bad weekend to finish off the month.

I’ll leave it there for tonight as it has taken about 2 hours to update the results whilst the Ryder Cup is on and it’s time to settle down and cheer on the Europeans.  

I’ll be back in midweek with the results from the midweek but more importantly, with the September review. Did the systems manage to achieve their 9th monthly profit in a row this month?  


  1. Hi Graeme,

    A very busy weekend indeed.
    Was this the busiest that you've had for the established systems?

    For someone following system 7-22 with 2 points on home fixtures and 1 on away (AH0.25), even with a conservative bank of 20 points, nearly half that bank was staked on the weekend. Is this something you had considered when recommending bank sizes?
    With the recommended bank of 13.5 points, is it conceivable that one week we could have more bets than the size of the bank?

    Thankfully it was a great weekend and has given me a little buffer against any draw-downs in the future, which is the ideal situation for me.

    Also, some time in the future I would like to be more self-reliant and build my own odds models, could you give any pointers of sites/books to read on this subject?



  2. Hi RG.

    Cheers for the comment.

    It was a busy weekend but not near busiest weekend. There were a few weekends last season that had more bets if I’m honest but when you are placing the sort of % of your betting bank in one day as many of us were last weekend, it does make you wonder whether you are staking properly!

    I’ll pick you up on something regarding the betting bank for 7-22. In no way is 13.5pts a recommended betting bank when staking 2pts on Homes and 1pt (AH0.25) on Aways. If any person is staking 15% of their betting bank on a Home bet on that system, then they may well end up losing their bank I suspect, sooner rather than later.

    The recommended betting bank for system 7-22 (1pt on Homes, 1pt on Aways) is 35pts (as shown across at the website), so no way could 13.5pts be the recommended bank for that strategy you mention.

    Just because the max drawdown is 6.75pts say, that doesn’t mean the betting bank you need is 13.5pts! Far from it I suggest.

    I may show a lot of stuff on the blog with betting banks being 2 or 3 times the drawdown but when you are staking 15% of your bank on a single game, clearly, you are overstaking. Hence, you can’t follow a betting bank blindly. It needs to incorporate some common sense!

    There is only one recommended betting bank for 7-22. It is 35pts. The only strategy that is recommended for 7-22 is 1pt on Homes, 1pt on Aways. It is what I am proofed to from the SBC and what I record my results as. As you will see if you read the blog, I don’t discuss the results for any other strategy after each set of results as my proofed results are all outright bets.

    However, there are many ways to skin a cat and I use AH betting myself and have tried to provide lots of advice around AH and how you can maximise profits and return on capital. This doesn’t change my proofed results though.

    If anyone on here reads a blog posts and decides to follow a betting bank or a strategy discussed, they are doing so at their own risk. I only provided recommended betting banks for outright betting and pretty prudent banks at that! Last season, my proofed results made about 60% ROC to recommended banks although many subscribers made 100%+.

    I know there are lots of people overstaking my systems massively and turning over betting banks every week but that’s their conscious decision. If they go broke, they go broke. I don’t really care as long as my systems are profitable overall.

    Apologies for the little rant but I don’t want people getting mixed up between advice for betting bank and strategies and what I officially recommend.

    Being honest, no one should ever rely on someone else to set a betting bank for them anyway. They should do it themselves!


    PS. I don’t take into account the fact you could stake more than your betting bank. In the first season (due the fact I didn’t have a good idea of betting banks), I regularly staked 100%+ of my betting bank some weekends. Less so these days but I’m still looking to turn over my betting bank as much as possible! I know a few people this season who are turning over their bank nearly every week, so they’ll definitely have staked nearly their full bank at the weekend!

    PPS. In terms of reading, start with Dixon/Coles and take it from there. Will get the ideas flowing hopefully!

  3. Thanks Graeme, I've no idea how I missed the official banks, no harm done and a bit of an extra buffer for me now. I'll sort out my staking plan and bank before this weekends fixtures!.

    Thanks for the tip on Dixon Coles, I had a late night reading last night and I think I'm going to have to get some of my old statistical text books out from my time at University to understand it all again!

    Also, I've been reading about ELO as a ratings system, Cassini has written about it on his blog as well as on the Betting Expert blog as well. I was wondering what your thoughts were on this as a means to deriving an odds model?



  4. Hi RG.

    The ratings models I have developed are basically a slightly more complicated version of an ELO model as it is based on factors that aren’t as obvious to the betting public i.e. shots on target and shots. Same fundamental idea as an ELO model though where you are looking for teams playing better than their results indicate.

    I think the whole thing about creating an edge is that you need to be doing something that others aren’t doing. I’m an avid reader of Cassini’s blog and most blogs on my blog roll to be honest and most of the guys have a significant edge. Not quite sure I’ve come across anyone who has done what I’ve done with the footie (or even come near it) but as I’ve said before on the blog, someone will come along and make my footie returns look average and more importantly, probably reduce my edge at the same time if they are backing similar teams!

    The biggest test for any betting system is whether you are beating the market prices consistently at kick-off. My systems do that easily and usually by a long way on average and therefore, as long as we keep backing before the market wakens up to where the value lies, we’ll be fine I hope.

    I see lots of people try to find value football bets and they are backing many teams similar to me overall and they might end up with an ROI of 5%-10% which is very good I think. I guess the main difference my systems have is that they can take this a step further and actually pinpoint the very strongest bets. Hence, if you can achieve a 20% return backing 50% of these bets, this is better as the variance will be lower which means the bank will be lower and the return on capital will be higher.

    Anyway, keep me updated with how you go with the footie modelling. It’s a lot of work at times but very rewarding when you create yourself an edge. Even better when you are willing to share it with others to make money too at the same time. :)