Friday, 1 February 2013

January 2013 Review

Well, for the 3rd month in a row, it’s a losing month. I do find it fascinating that the systems could achieve 17 profitable months in a row from the first 20 month of live results and then follow it up with 3 losing months in a row.

17 winning months from 23 isn’t a disaster and it’s not uncommon to have losing months when you are betting (I know a month doesn’t mean anything to anyone before anyone leaves a smart comment!) but it I do find patterns of results interesting at times.

One thing I would say is that although every month is independent of one another, I do think there is historical evidence in this football ratings market of services struggling for a season and then bouncing back the next season with the same ratings. I’m starting to feel like this season is already a write off for me and in a way, I just want the season ended. I really hope the last 4 months of the season are much more profitable than the first 5 months but we’ll see what happens.

I’m not sure I can put my finger on what is different this season compared to the last two seasons (apart from the obvious that teams are winning as often!) but I think if you look at things like the number of bets on the systems, you can start to identify that this season is a bit different to last season as there are more bets.

Anyway, I’ll have all Summer to dissect what has happened this season, so let’s concentrate on the month of Jan-13.

Est Systems

At a high level, a loss of 16pts from 353 bets. 9 of the 11 systems had fairly small losses and 2 systems had a small profit.  Interestingly, the AH returns were a good bit worse and therefore, that confirms that it has been a very poor month for these rating algorithms and these systems. It is only the 5th month from 60 months of results that all 4 betting types (outright, AH0, AH0.25 and AH0.5) have lost money in the month.

There was one really good day in the month where 58.6pts profit was obtained but there were only 6 winning days from 16 days and a few of the winning days were very small. I think if this month had come about off the back of some decent results, seeing small losses on most systems isn’t a disaster but unfortunately, this month follows a very poor spell. 

In terms of the individual system results, algorithm one lost 6.6pts from 73 bets. I guess the only positive is the fact that system 7 reduced this loss and system 8 turned it into a profit. Too often this season, the first algorithm hasn’t managed to narrow down the bets successfully at all, so this is a little better but reducing losses isn’t really the aim of the filtering, it’s meant to be about maximising profits!

Algorithm two had a steady month and only lost 0.9pts from 65 bets. Algorithm two again cements its position as the best rating algorithm as it lost the least amount this month from all the rating algorithms I’m running!

The combined system results are hard to fathom as they are all over the place. In total, a 6.3pts loss which isn’t great but isn’t as bad as the last two months losses (13.5pts and 26.4pts). I wouldn’t exactly call it a step in the right direction but a small loss is much better than a large loss!

I think the stat that sums up this month is the fact that using AH0.5 on all bets lost 16.2pts on the combined systems. This is only the second month since the systems went live that this method has resulted in more than a 1pt loss.  Hence, in terms of this, it is probably the 2nd worst month since inception as in the other big losing months, I could point to the fact the AH0.5 made a profit and it was simply down to too many teams drawing.

It’s always impossible to pick out where it is going wrong but you can’t get away from the fact that during the first two seasons, the bets on the top 4 combined systems (7-21 to 8-22) were the most profitable and the rest of the systems lived off these profits. This season, backing all teams on 7-21 to 8-22 is a loss making strategy and this underpins the issues the systems are having this season. I find it amazing that 6-21 can make any profit at all this season when the very best bets are heavily loss making.

I’ve already touched on my concerns with the first two rating algorithms possibly being a little outdated in previous posts but that’s the only conclusion I can draw at the moment. The systems built on more recent data are easily doing much better and have been since day one this season. It’s like someone flicked a switch at the end of last season and the edge on the combined systems vanished overnight.

I suspect the fate of the service hinges on what happens with these Est Systems over the rest of this season. Although other services have successfully bounced back from a losing season, they didn’t bankrupt all their subscribers whilst doing so! I can only hope that the results on the Est Systems don’t continue to tail off and I end up bankrupting everyone who’s following these systems this season.

Let’s see what February brings…….

New Systems

A loss of 19.4pts across 400 bets. AH0.5 lost 3.8pts in comparison. Therefore, clearly, these systems suffered a little more from the draw factor than the Est Systems but even if backing the draw on every game also, a loss was made, so it wasn’t too much of a hard luck story!

The only positive with these systems is that the actual base ratings on both algorithms made a small profit. System 31 made a profit of 2.6pts from 72 games and system 41 made a profit of 4.4pts from 94bets. On the downside, the systems haven’t managed to narrow the bets down well at all this month. Systems 32,33 and 42 were all loss making and had poor months.

The combined systems lost in total and the top two systems in particular had poor months.

I think the conclusion you can draw here is similar to the Est Systems in the sense the best bets aren’t winning. Admittedly, it’s hard to know what the best bets are on the Est Systems this season as they are all rubbish but going into this month, it was definitely the case that the top two combined systems on the New Systems were throwing out the best bets. The ROI was in excess of 30% on these systems before this month. 33-41 got 1 correct from 9 and 33-42 got 1 correct from 7.

This is the first losing month since these systems went live, so it’s hard to be too critical. They had 3 losing months last season when they didn’t have a great time during backtesting.

I think we need to wait until the end of the season before we can draw any conclusions on these systems as I’ve been saying all season.

Misc Systems

Definitely the biggest disappointment of the month (mostly because these made up a big chunk of my own personal betting!). A loss of 27.9pts from 225 bets. I only know this as it’s from my own betting records but it’s the away bets that have let the side down this month here as there have been a crazy amount of draws. The Homes have had a storming month and have basically saved my bacon this month to a large extent. Using AH0.5 on every bet only had a loss of 3.6pts.

Given the season these systems have had so far, I can’t be too critical of these results really. Aways on these systems have always been very volatile and the Home bets are still the strongest home bets that my ratings produce I think.

I think the issue these systems face at a totality level is that people look at the long-term ROI’s (running at about 6.5%) and decide they aren’t worth following. I think there are some gems of bets in these systems if you can find!

Under-Over Systems

These systems have had the best month of all the systems I think! Anyway, another losing month and they continue to flatter to deceive. A loss of 2.4pts from 43 bets.

The Under system made a profit of 1.2pts from 31 bets and the Over system made a loss of 3.5pts from 12 bets.

Euro Systems

A shocker of a month for these systems but I can lay the blame solely at the door of the draw factor. A loss of 46.7pts from 353 bets but a profit of 11.3pts from AH0.5 betting.

Last month, there was a massive profit from backing outright and a massive loss if using AH0.5, so it’s something of a correction this month.

The base ratings are solely to blame this month and a loss on E1 of 14pts from 62 bets and a loss on E6 of 17pts from 74 bets. The filtering worked the best it’s worked all season though on these systems and E3 was close to breaking even, even though the ratings were rubbish!

This manifested itself on the combined systems also. The top 4 combined systems made a small profit even though the ratings had a disaster of a month!

The systems continue to perplex me just a little and I’m not sure I’ve much faith in these at the moment but similar to the New systems, it’s very early days.


When I started writing this review, I was expecting to reach the end of it, be 100% dejected about how things are going and start looking for the nearest bridge to jump off of.

Now I’ve written the review, I tend to always feel a little better and although things aren’t going well and haven’t been for a while, it’s not a total disaster (yet!).

I’ve said it in the intro above but I sort of already see this season as a poor season and I just hope that the last 4 months of the season don’t undo all the work I’ve put into this so far. My own P&L isn’t great this season but then again, it’s not a disaster either. As long as things don’t go too badly over the next few months, I’ll definitely try to regroup and rebuild in the summer and it will hopefully be another chapter on this journey. I may well be on my own again as I’m not sure too many will fancy following the systems again after this season but we’ll see what happens over the rest of this season.

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