Saturday, 2 February 2013

Down but not out.......

One thing that a subscriber asked me to look at recently is the current drawdowns being experienced by each system. We all know it’s been a really poor run by a lot of systems but are any of the systems close to busting their betting bank this season?

I’ve pulled together the table below.  It shows the recommended betting bank for each system, the max historical drawdown, average odds of each bet and the current drawdown at the end of Jan-13. I’ve then calculated the current drawdown as a % of the max drawdown and lastly, I’ve shown the current drawdown as a % of the betting bank for each system.

There are two things I take from this table I think. Firstly, only system 7-22 is past the 50% mark in terms of losing its betting bank.  Another 3 are past the 40% mark but beyond that, there is nothing too alarming I think in terms of systems losing their betting bank. The betting banks were based on historical drawdowns and therefore, there are a few systems that are now at their worst historical drawdown as I’ve highlighted in the table.

The second thing I take from this is this table is that we’re currently going through a very rough spell but it’s nothing outside of normal variance at the moment. I say at the moment as I’ve no idea what is around the corner and another 3 months like the last 3 months will see lots of systems close to losing their betting banks I guess but we don’t know what will happen next.

You can see from the table that it is the Established Systems struggling the most and in particular, the 6 combined systems. Very frustrating considering they entered this season off the back of 8 winning months in a row but then again, maybe it isn’t too surprising that they are experiencing a rough spell. I tend to think you can only outrun variance for so long and possibly, hitting 8 winning months in a row is pushing it to the extreme, so we may be seeing a slightly correction here.  They started the season with 2 winning months also, so after 10 winning months in a row, maybe 3 losing months isn’t as unexpected as we all think?

Anyway, I’m sure everyone can take something different from this table and ultimately, it confirms that we’re in the midst of a very difficult spell but hopefully, the table shows we’re down but not out!

A big weekend coming up for the systems with a lot of high value bets, so let’s hope we start to see some form of recovery this weekend.

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