Tuesday, 19 February 2013

Season Results to 17th Feb 2013

I had a comment from Diego on the last post saying he couldn’t find the latest system results. I’ve said this before but I’ve steered away from looking at the results over the season as I tend to do the daily updates and then do a review at the end of every month.

If I’m going to look at the season, I’m as well looking at all live results (makes this season look like a blip on some systems!) but at the end of the day, even when I post the results for the season, people can interpret them in many different ways.

I feel like I’m forever apologising on here but it’s been a terrible season and compared to the first two seasons of live results, you’d think it was a different set of systems. However, every season can’t be like the first two seasons I guess and we’re going to have to suffer some ups and downs on our way to the Holy Grail of profits. (This is tongue in cheek before someone picks me up on it!)

Looking quickly at the table ( I don’t tend to look at the system results in one table), the thing that strikes me the most is the fact the Misc Systems and New Systems look so much better than the Est Systems, the Euro Systems and the Under/Over Systems this season.

Going into the season, it was hard to imagine the season would pan out this way but it again highlights the need for diversification I think. Definitely makes it more interesting for next season that we seem to have a bigger range of profitable systems to follow.

Anyway, hope this is what you are after Diego……


  1. Thank you for posting the results so far

    Although systems seem to be underperforming this season, an 6.0% ROI from 8260 bets is still great.

    One question, if I can ask: are you using the same weightings for all the leagues in Euro systems? I think you shouldn't, there is a big difference between different countries

    Best regards, and sorry for my bad English!

  2. Hi Diego.

    You’re English isn’t bad at all mate. You write better than many others I know who aren’t foreign!

    I should probably say that last night saw another 120pts added to the figures I posted yesterday as it was a really good night. Ignoring that for the moment though….

    I think you need to be careful looking at the overall results. As you can see, if you have chosen to follow one or two systems this season, you are possibly entering a bit of a lottery around whether you are making a profit or a loss. In addition, if you use AH betting on some of your bets, you’re increasing the likelihood of making a loss.

    I’ve said this lots of times but all AH betting does is reduce your profitability if you have an edge. For systems that may be struggling a little this season, AH betting can turn them from profitable systems into losing systems. Of course, AH betting can allow you to maximise your ROC if used correctly (and assuming the results work out in your favour)

    So, I’d be wary of looking at the overall results and saying it’s not been too bad. Well, it hasn’t been too bad but I hoped for better.

    In terms of your comment re. the Euro systems, the ratings are built using data from all 4 European leagues. The ratings are built identical to the way I built the ratings for the UK leagues. Filters by leagues are not applied at all and although you could fit different algorithms to different leagues, you dilute your dataset and are much more likely to build ratings that are simply backfitted.

    I think we all know that the Bsq Prem doesn’t really behave like the Premiership but it doesn’t stop my various rating algorithms from working in both leagues. Likewise, just because I know France behaves nothing like Italy (or Spain or Germany for that matter!), I think it’s better to have two sets of ratings across all leagues than try to fit different ratings to each league.

    I’ll have a second go at rebuilding the Euro ratings this Summer I suspect. They’ve not done anywhere near as well as I hoped but clearly, it’s a little tougher to build ratings for these leagues. I said that at the outset. Learnt a fair bit this season though, so hopefully I can build on this next season.