Friday, 27 December 2013

Results update to Boxing Day

Going to keep this update fairly short as I need to continue working on the ratings for the weekend games. Got slightly fed up doing the ratings, so thought I’d spend an hour updating the results sheets and writing a quick blog post on the recent results.

This post covers the results of the last two weekend’s and the Boxing Day games. A lot of games in a short period of time and it’s not over yet with the weekend games followed by the games on New Year’s Day and then the lower leagues are in action again at the weekend after the New Year’s Day games. Once we get this weekend out of the way, this draws the month to a close, so I can get the monthly review updated early next week and we can start the New Year with everything updated to the end of December.

In terms of recent results, there has been a slight correction taking place in the sense the systems which struggled early season have been doing better and the systems which started the season well have struggled a little. The Euro systems have followed a similar pattern to last season in many ways and the draw has killed these systems over the last few weeks. This is the second season I have trialled a couple of Euro rating algorithms and the early promise this season has evaporated again and I have zero confidence in these systems having any form of edge. I’ve actually got zero confidence in me being able to find an edge using a rating algorithm across the 4 Euro leagues and quite simply, the ratings don’t seem to work when they go live. 

The draw systems were doing OK until Boxing Day and then boom, a huge chunk of the profits this month gone in one fell swoop. It’s interesting that the systems which helped my portfolio out earlier this season have hit the skids at the same time when my other systems have started picking up profits. I guess that’s the beauty of following a well-diversified portfolio of systems and at the end of the day, this is why I’m always looking for more systems or more ways to find an edge. The draw systems have really helped me this season and when I think back to why I built these systems, it was to provide more diversification to the TFA system portfolio (as well as my own portfolio). Hence, I’m always trying to keep one step ahead and when you see the results of the Est Systems this season, you can see why I wanted to build another set of systems and not just rely on these systems. :) 

I’m still keen to find an edge in the Euro leagues and maybe I can look at something totally different to what I do in the UK leagues but this brings a great deal of risk and I need to question whether or not it’s worth it. Trialling systems may not cost me too much in monetary terms but in terms of time and effort, running two Euro rating algorithms alongside all my UK ratings and systems is hard work. Anyway, now is not the time to draw too many conclusions and to be fair, the Euro systems were badly affected by draws last season too, so maybe everything points towards draw systems for these leagues? We’ll see what happens over the remainder of the season.

Here’s the update for all the systems.

Est Systems

A profit of 22.09pts from 131 bets. A decent return although the higher combined systems have again been struggling for winners. Mirrors the way the season has gone to date and trying to pinpoint the very best bets on these algorithms have been difficult if using the systems to narrow the bets down. Interestingly, the higher TFA value rated bets have been a much better indicator to the best bets on these systems, so definitely something to explore for next season I think.

New Systems

A profit of 62.72pts from 220 bets. This is much more like it from these systems and builds on the decent start to the month these systems had. Really pleasing to see the higher combined systems do well and particularly pleasing to see system 31-42 do well since I know it’s a very popular system this season amongst subscribers. These systems do seem to have the ability to string together a really good run of results and after 87pts in September, they are now on course for the 3rd winning month in a row (as long as the weekend isn’t a disaster!).

Misc Systems

A profit of 15.53pts from 124 bets. I sort of feel like these systems are waiting to burst into life and go on the sort of run we saw last season but so far, it hasn’t happened. They are managing to grind out results and I guess after the start this season, I’m not going to knock any profit but I do feel like these systems have underperformed a little over the last few weeks. When you see the returns on the New Systems, you can see what is possible but these systems just haven’t clicked so far. Long way to go this season and it’s another small step forward.

Draw Systems

A really strange update here as before Boxing Day, things were looking amazing but Boxing Day was a disaster. Overall, a profit of 24.64pts from 171 bets. Again, I’m not going to knock this profit and it’s a great return but they have had one of the best days of the season followed immediately by one of the worst days of the season and that always hurts. Interestingly, reverse these days around and I’d be saying how amazing these returns are I suspect but that’s the way our minds work I think. 

Euro Systems

Ouch! 74.2pts loss from 188 bets. Interestingly, if backing AH0.5, a profit of 6.7pts. That’s all you need to know about what has gone on here. The draw is a pest at times and for an update like this, if it wasn’t for the fact I track the returns for AH betting, I would be saying how bad these results are. Don’t get me wrong, the results are bad but when so many games are draws, I can sort of live with this. The problem is that it happens too often with these Euro systems and it erodes any edge the systems could have. It happened last season too where the Asian Handicap returns were better than the outright returns and the same is now true this season. Still early days and a long way to go but if the draw remains as much of a pest as this, these systems aren’t going to make any profit.

Under-Over Systems

The continual trickle of losses continue on these systems. A loss of 3.64pts from 12 bets. They are on course for a second losing season as I would have predicted at the outset this season and these systems really are a waste of time! I expect these will be retired at the end of the season.

Overall, 47.14pts profit from 846 bets. 5.5% ROI. I would be disappointed if people couldn’t beat this return over this period considering the large loss the Euro’s made. Take away these bets and the results were much better overall, so people should have done better I hope.

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