Tuesday, 31 December 2013

December 2013 Monthly Review

December won’t go down as the most spectacular month the service has ever had but it was another solid month for most systems which builds on the returns achieved in November.  It’s when you see the run of results the systems have had over the past 7-8 weeks that you really do ponder what the hell went wrong at the start of the season. If the first month had been break-even instead of one of the worst months ever, I expect this season would look and feel much different to how it looks and feels now but even so, it feels good to see the systems bounce back a little again this month.

The stars of the show this month were the New Systems and as you’ll see below, a really good return was achieved on these systems. The Euro systems had a nightmare month as a result of too many selections drawing, the Draw systems had a break-even month where all the losses were made on Boxing Day and the Est and Misc Systems both had solid, if not amazing profitable months. The Under/Over systems had a losing month again.

The same issues remained this month with the filtering of the systems and it’s crazy to see such large losses on the higher combined systems when the ratings and base systems are now in profit for the season. Frustrating to say the least but maybe this sort of correction was due after the results these systems had in the first 3 seasons?

Overall, a really good solid month and I think we enter 2014 with plenty of hope for the remainder of the season. It’s highly unlikely that this season can be anywhere nearly as profitable as the last 3 seasons but as I’ve said before on the blog, a break-even season wouldn’t be a disaster. That’s the aim I think as it would at least ensure no real damage was done to betting banks although the long-term ROI would take a hit but given the ROI coming into the season on many systems was very high, I don’t mind the long-tem ROI reducing a little.

Est Systems

Rating algorithm 1 produced a profit of 5.5pts from 66 bets, an ROI of 8.4%. A solid month for the rating algorithm. Looking at the split by Homes and Aways, a 2pt loss on Aways and a 7.5pt profit on Homes.

Looking at the value bands, the highest bands did best for the Aways and the highest Home band hit another big priced winner this month. Again, sample sizes in the month are too low to draw conclusions on the value bands but I will do a post on the season to date soon.

Rating algorithm 2 produced a profit of 1.9pts from 53 bets. The Home Away split was much different here with Aways producing a 5.1pt profit and Homes producing a 3.2pts loss.

Nothing stands out too much on the value bands apart from the fact the Aways seem to throw up lots of low value bets and they don’t seem to make much of a return. Fits in with my thinking before this season although I’m not close enough to the value band results this season to know that this trend has shone through this season as much as I think.

Here’s the results for all the Est systems:

Overall, a profit of 23.5pts from 240 bets. An ROI of 9.8%. A decent return although it varies wildly by system.

The filtering didn’t work well on systems 6,7 and 8 whereas it seemed to work amazingly well on system 21 and 22. When this happens, it’s pot luck what happens to the Combined Systems I think.

6-22 had an amazing month due to system 22 having an amazing month but 7-22 and 8-22 struggled as systems 7 and 8 filtered out all the good bets that appeared on system 22!

6-21 did OK but 7-21 and 8-21 did worse again.

I think the month can be summed up by 6-22. 7 winners from 13 bets. 7-22 filtered out 6 bets and unfortunately, 5 of the 6 bets were winning bets! 8-22 filtered out another 2 bets and missed a winner too. Very frustrating but it does follow what we’ve seen all season with the filtering on these systems.

Overall, it’s another positive month and these systems have taken another small step forward but they remain well down on the season as a result of the losses in September. My hope is that they produce a profit over the next few months and we get back break-even on these systems before the season end. I guess my worry would be that we hit another bad patch and given the fact these systems aren’t near break-even yet, it compounds the earlier losses and it then turns into a nightmare season for these systems. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that!

New Systems

Rating algorithm 3 has been the star so far this season with a profit every month and it has managed it again this month. A profit of 8.9pts from 83 bets at an ROI of 10.7%.  8.5pts profit on Aways and 0.4pts profit on Homes.

Interestingly, the value bands look a little less easy to decipher here as the lowest value bands for Aways seemed to make all the profit this month but as I keep saying every month, the sample sizes are far too small to draw any conclusions.

Overall, a really decent performance again and it has been a really steady start this season for algorithm 3.

Rating algorithm 4 managed a profit of 7.5pts from 106 bets, with an ROI of 7.1%. Aways again shaded the profits this month with 5.6pts profit against 2pts from Homes.

Difficult to comment on the value bands as the results appear all over the place due to the small samples.

Here’s the results for all the systems:

It may not have been an amazing month for the ratings algorithms but it has been a truly stunning month for the systems. The filtering worked like a dream this month on both algorithms and as you can see, when the filtering works like it is meant to, it can lead to the sort of month that most systems and tipsters can only dream about!

116.1pts profit from 410 bets at an ROI of 28.3%. All of the combined systems had brilliant months and it’s nice to see the higher combined systems claw back some of the earlier season losses this month.

I’ve spoken numerous times before about how the New Systems can generate 100pts profit in a month and this is the 3rd time since the systems went live that they have managed this. That’s 3 times in 13 months which is some going!

Overall, not much more I can add and it’s been a special month for these systems. They are now in profit for the season which considering the start they had, is no mean feat. Hopefully they can build on this going forward.

Misc Systems

Overall, a profit of 28.1pts from 214 bets at an ROI of 13.1%. A good month overall although the breakdown by system is interesting.

The 3 strongest systems in this set of systems have always been the Similar Games systems (TOX, STOY and STOZ) but this month, the other 3 systems have done better.

A special mention to system 6-32 who managed to hit 9 winners from 18 for a profit of 8.9pts. This system is still in a loss making position this season, so maybe this month has seen some sort of correction after the earlier losses this season.

The disappointing system has to be TOX which created a small loss. Being honest, the 3 SG systems have been disappointing this season so far although to be fair to them, they haven’t had the rollercoaster that some other systems have had. I guess small losses and profits each month can’t be a disaster for a system but I think these 3 systems had such an amazing season last season, I automatically expect them to do it again. So far, this season appears to be following the season when the systems went live and they struggled to make any headway all season that season. Hopefully the second half of the season goes better!

These systems have now crawled into profit for the season and after losing 65pts in the first month, to see 3 winning months in a row is pleasing. Here’s hoping they can build on this again next month.

Draw Systems

At a high level and in the context of the season to date, a profit of 2.8pts from 330 bets isn’t a disaster and therefore, I don’t want to sound too harsh. However, given the profits these systems had at the midway point this month, it’s really disappointing to be posting pretty much a break-even month overall.

They hit 34 winners from 64 bets one day in the month and then followed it almost immediately with 6 winners from 63 bets.  I guess if I reversed these days, I’d probably be saying how great it was to be posting anything other than a large loss this month for these systems but that’s not the way my mind works!

On the plus side, it’s the 3rd winning month in a row, 9 of the 11 systems are now in profit for the season after a 38pt loss in the first month of the season and therefore, I can’t be too harsh about this month.

Looking at the split by system, I’m talking through my pocket when I say it was a poor month as the systems I follow made a loss to put a dent in the season’s profits on these systems but overall, I think it’s good to see both rating algorithms make a profit this month. I also know D1-D6 is a popular system from those who took the plunge with the draw systems this season as part of their portfolio and therefore, some would see this month as a much better than month than I’m seeing!

It again highlights the difficulty with filtering systems when you see the returns on the top two combined systems compared to D1-D6. Filtering the bets does lead to more variance even though long-term, the hope is that they are more profitable than following all the bets.

Overall, a decent month and a month of consolidation I guess after the last couple of months which were much better. Let’s see how these systems do in the second half of the season.

Euro Systems

Not sure where you start with a 101.9pts loss from 280 bets. I guess the easiest place to start is the fact that the AH returns were much, much better! Therefore, this leads us to the conclusion that the draw was a big issue this month.

Both algorithms made substantial losses but both were profitable for AH0.5 betting. That basically sums up the month. Last season, the Euro systems achieved better returns the more draw coverage you had (basically, AH0.5 is the same as dutching the selection to win and draw) and this season is now following the same pattern.

Interestingly, last season, if betting on the draw for all games, you achieved a small profit and this season, the same is true. I hinted at it on a recent results update post but maybe the way to go with the European leagues is to look at draw systems rather than outright systems. The draw is a pest in the Euro leagues and I’ve discussed before how strange it is that not many seem to use ratings algorithms in the Euro leagues and I think I’m starting to understand why!

I’m not going to beat these systems up too much after a month like this as I’ve said since day one these systems are on trial and so far, all we have seen is the same as last season I think. On their day, they can do OK but long-term, too many draws seem to impact the returns. These systems are not even 1/3 of the way through the season yet, so a long way to go but I wouldn’t be surprised if things don’t really improve too much from here!

Under/Over Systems

Another 3.3pts lost this month from 20 bets. Only 8 winners unfortunately.

Unless something amazing happens between now and season end, these systems will be retired at the end of the season.


65.3pts profit from 1,494 bets.  4.4% ROI. It doesn’t look like the best return but for those playing a portfolio of systems, it should have been a much better return. For those that only play a system or two, may well have been a loss making month unfortunately depending on which systems they follow. When not every system has a profitable month, I can’t guarantee everyone had a winning month but hopefully most subscribers had a decent month.

For me personally, December was a good month’s betting and it finishes off a decent 2013 for me. I started betting online in March 2008 and in a few months, it will be my 6th year anniversary. 2013 hasn’t my most impressive calendar year in terms of ROI but in terms of £ won, it has been. I consciously made the decision to move away from chasing a decent ROI to looking at ways to maximise my ROC and so far, it has worked well. It has meant more time is spent placing bets than before and I’ve put more hours into my betting in 2013 than ever before but it has been worth it when I equate it to the additional return I’ve made. I've found a strategy I enjoy playing at this game and the fact I am able to make a decent second income from applying the strategy is the icing on the cake. 

I’ll try to do a post with some figures for the year to give a little more depth to how my own betting has gone but I’m conscious I’m due a post on the ratings performance this season too, so as always, so much I want to write about but not a lot of time to do it!

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