Thursday, 13 February 2014

Results Update

Before getting on with the results update, I’ve had some good feedback and some negative feedback regarding my post where I replied to Steve.  I said it in the post but the point of the post was because I felt some of the comments Steve made were unfair. I take great pride in my honesty and I don’t bullshit.  I’m the first to admit this season has been really poor so far and the systems have underperformed enormously compared to previous seasons.  I felt like Steve was maybe indicating that the reason I had so many systems was to hide behind the results but that’s clearly not the case.

If I didn’t think I had an edge, I would do a much better job at hiding it by not having many systems or bets or by trying to hide behind past results. Every season, I have increased the bet number with TFA as I’ve increased the number of systems and therefore, I could have lived off the results for the first two seasons and not done anything but punt out those system bets and it would probably take years to wipe out those profits!

I’ve been very honest all along on the blog and anyone who has read the blog will know why the new systems have been developed and it was all to do with me finding a way to reduce the risk of my own betting portfolio. I wanted Euro Systems and Draw Systems and other UK systems for my own betting portfolio and therefore, I developed them myself rather than go out and try to buy other systems in the market for a subscription fee.  It had little to do with the service although I’ve added them all to the service since I had the bets for myself.

I honestly don’t mind people slagging me off for the results this season or slagging the systems off for their poor performance but when I see comments on blogs or forums suggesting that I’m inventing systems out of thin air to hide poor results, it’s bullshit and I’m not even lowering myself to reply to such comments.  

Likewise, as I’ve said many times before now, the service doesn’t mean that much to me.  The point of the systems is to help me make a second income from betting if possible. I have no intention of being a ‘tipster’ and living off subscriptions. If I wanted to do that, I’ve no doubt I could probably go down that route but it would mean prostituting the systems to make money and I’m not really cut out for that game. I’ve never once tried to push the systems onto anyone and if people want to follow them, they can do so but I personally don’t mind.  

I find it slightly amusing that over the first 3 seasons when the service was untouchable in the market and the service was being recognised as the greatest thing since sliced bread, I didn’t see any of this negativity about me or the systems. The first season the service struggles, random people (who of course have football selections to sell!) are appearing out of the woodwork to have a dig at me and the service.  It’s easy to have a dig when things aren’t going well but if anyone has matched my systems results over the first 4 seasons of live results (yes, including this season’s shambolic results), I look forward to hearing from them.  

Anyway, another horrible results update I’m afraid and it’s been a tough start to the month. January started like a dream and ended terribly. This month has started terribly. Let’s hope it ends better or it’s going to be a nightmare month!

Est Systems

An 11.78pt loss from 72 bets.  Same story as all season but the higher combined bets couldn’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo at the moment. It’s got to the stage now than when I see a bet appearing on systems 7-21 thru to 8-22, I really hope the same bets don’t appear on many other systems as it’s likely to be a loser. Crazy really but that’s how badly I feel at the moment about these systems!

New Systems

A 20.18pts loss from 123 bets. A really bad update for both basic algorithms and they are struggling at the moment. The 4th algorithm is punting out some extra rubbish as well as the same rubbish bets the other algorithms are finding at the moment. Tough going!

Misc Systems

An 11.08pts loss from 76 bets. Again, follows the season trend that STOZ is performing much the worse of these 6 systems. Last season, the additional bets STOZ had made it the best system from all TFA systems. This season, these additional bets are killing this system. Same bets as last season, they just aren’t winning this season!

Draw Systems

A profit of 6.13pts from 62 bets.  Same trend as all season, these new systems this season appear to be able to make profits whilst all my other systems have turned to shi* this season.

Under/Over Systems

A profit of 0.62pts from 8 bets. Surprised they made a profit tbh. Counting down the days till I stop these systems!

Euro Systems

A profit of 4.8pts from 61 bets. As every week passes, the more I hope that these Euro ratings may have an edge. Not much good for me this season given I had zero confidence at the start of the season in the systems but I think these bets have been a million times better than the Euro bets last season.  Long way to go this season but I’d love to have a set of Euro bets I could invest in next season with confidence. At this rate, I'll be backing Draws and Euro bets next season! :(

Overall, a loss of 31.49pts from 402 bets.

Not much more to add. More rubbish results to add to the rubbish results so far this season. 


  1. You say that the service "doesn’t mean that much to me" then why are you selling it?

    Given that you appear to lose far less than your subscribers do why don't you just focus on your own betting rather than selling a service?

    Maybe it is just an ego thing.................

  2. Hi Neil.

    Cheers for the comment.

    I've been pretty honest about why I have the service I think. I use the service and the subscribers to pay for the time it takes to run as many ratings and systems as I do. In return for me using them, they use me in the sense they get access to all the bets and all the systems and I do my best to run a service that I’m proud of.

    I work full time and have a decent betting bank after the last few seasons since I started betting on footie and therefore, not sure why people are so obsessed with the service. If I wanted to rake in money from the service, I could market the service like mad, increases subscription fees and let anyone join. Given I'm the only football service who closed subscriptions in July last season and I cap the numbers at a reasonable number to ensure I can still get the prices, then I think that shows I'm different from many others in this game.

    I know people find it strange that I charge peanuts for the service given it's the number one footie service over the last few seasons and people think it's too good to be true but this is my decision. I gave away the bets for peanuts every season for the last 3 seasons and no one was having digs. Free for season 1, £75 for season 2. If people think £75 means that much to me, then so be it but the subscription fees are a token gesture as I’ve said before. If it wasn’t so time consuming, I would happily give away the bets for free or if I reach the stage where my profits from betting cover my time as well as provide me with an appropriate return, I will provide the bets for free.

    There is a lot of jealously and envy around what I do and people have every right to say what they want. I do get annoyed when people try to imply I have ulterior motives but I suspect it’s driven by the fact that if they put themselves in my shoes, they would milk the subscribers as best they can.

    I do concentrate on my own betting and I always put my own betting before the service where possible. I developed new systems for my betting portfolio such as the draw systems. No one asked me for them, I did it for myself.

    I've worked very hard at my betting over the last few years and therefore, that's all that matters to me. The service is a distraction but I enjoy helping others make money and it's a lonely game at times I find, so I like the social impact too (even communicating with you Neil!). Making money betting is great, doing it alongside many others (many who have now known me for a good few years) is even better I think.

    The comment about the subscribers losing money makes me laugh. Yes, a few people are down this season as I keep reading about but not everyone is in this position. Many others are wiping the floor with me this season in terms of returns, the same as the last 3 seasons. No one was complaining to me two seasons ago when they beat my returns, so the same guys aren’t complaining now that I’m beating their returns this season.

    At the end of the day, the service will be judged by the members and I’m comfortable with that. The fact that most of the criticism at the moment is from non-members and other tipsters says it all really.

    Let the TFA members be the judge……..



  3. Hi Graeme,

    Could you provide an update of the results of backing each individual selection once to 1pt for the season so far? If you could then split it into value bands as well that would be great.



  4. Graeme

    Another honest post as always. Im 19.88 points down this season. Im an adult. Nobody held a gun to my head and made me place these bets at incresaed stakes to last year. You gave me the advice and I decided to act upon it. Its not worked out and if i can get to a stage where we are level for the season then that will be a result. its not ideal but it will be ok.

    These "keyboard warriors" who hide behind "ANOM" and the like sicken me. I can see a day when you pack it in because of the constant sniping and I for one will be gutted.These people should not be allowed to have betting accounts if they cant handle losing.

  5. Hi Matthew.

    If it’s OK, can I do it at month end and I’ll do a blog post? I’m conscious this a busy month for midweek games and I’m feeling a little (OK, a lot!) rundown at the moment due to the pressures of this and I think I can do with a little break this weekend. Apologies and it’s a fairly easy job to do, so if I do get the time, I will do it for you and do a post on it mate.



    PS. Any thoughts on how it looks? I’ve no idea tbh!

  6. Hi Geoff.

    Cheers for the comment.

    I think the thing irking me a little at the moment is that the comments and sniping isn’t actually from people who have lost money or who follow the service, it’s from anons or wannabe tipsters trying to make a name for themselves by slagging me and the service off. It’s easy in life to put the boot into someone when they’re down or having a poor run and that’s all they’re doing with me. I admittedly show a little too much weakness at times by being so honest about how things are going and I talk through my pocket at times on Twitter but if people want to believe I’m sitting in the Bahamas, drinking cocktails off my betting winnings and subscription charges, then they can think that.

    I realise I don’t fit the tipster mould (not many tipsters tell people they are losing!) and I’m just a honest guy who’s built some ratings and systems and trying to make money following the bets and running a service at the same time. People do struggle with this honesty though and want this whole thing to be a massive scam whereby I’ve fluked the results so far and it’s only a matter of time before I lose my betting bank and take everyone down with me! That may still happen (thought it was happening earlier this season!) but that’s not a scam, that’s part of the game. It’s called gambling for a reason.

    I keep saying it over and over but a small loss or break-even isn’t a bad result this season. I would still take this for my overall portfolio and I’m currently showing a profit due to another rival service having a great season! I’d take break-even for my TFA bets for sure and I’ve been saying that since the end of September and said it in early January even when I was in profit.

    I’m smart enough to know I can’t make the sort of returns I’m aiming for every season. I need to take the good with the bad. The issue at the moment is that this message seems difficult for people to swallow who are supposedly following ‘the no 1 football service in the market’. People expected me to make them a millionaire and so far, I’m not doing that!

    Anyway, I still hope (hope is all I ever have!) is that the systems will go on a decent run and make some profits from here till the end of the season. If they do, it won’t be a disaster and if they don’t, then so be it.

    Here’s hoping you recover these losses by season end too Geoff. :)