Tuesday, 18 February 2014

Weekend Results Update

Since I had some time last night, I thought it was worth updating the weekend results before the midweek. It is a fairly big midweek coming up with 4 bets accounting for a helluva lot of system bets for the service, so the month is either about to get a whole lot worse or potentially, we could be in profit after tonight. Given the way the month has gone, I expect we’ll be in a bigger mess than we are now but let’s see what happens.

In terms of the weekend, another tough weekend.  It’s tough going at the minute as I keep on saying. Tough reading some of the losses being suffered by Steve, tough losing money on my own portfolio, tough knowing others have lost money too.

One thing I’ve drilled into people over the first 3 seasons is that changing strategy isn’t really an option mid-season as you should see your season portfolio through. In addition, experience has led me to believe that people tend to jump from the poor performing systems to the best performing systems and as luck would have it, they do it at the wrong time and it comes back to bite them. I did this in season one and it bit me very hard as I increased stakes at the worst possible time, so from this time on, I’ve always suggested sticking with your portfolio until the season end.

Now we’re into our 4th season, I’m starting to think that there is a flaw with this strategy. The flaw being that if your portfolio is set up wrongly in the first place, is there any hope that things will turn around? I guess this is something that isn’t easy to answer and it may be the case that as soon you change strategy, your old portfolio would pick up but at the moment, those portfolios struggling the most have been the same portfolios struggling since the first week of the season.

Anyway, as always, the results updates on the blog are for the systems as a whole, so here’s the results for the weekend past.

Est Systems

Only 5 winners from 32 bets and a loss of 16.1pts. Pretty much losses across the board and the higher combined systems (7-21 thru to 8-22) continue to haemorrhage money this season. I’ll do a quick post on the Est Systems later as I think it’s worth looking at their fall from grace this season.

New Systems

Not quite as bad on these systems and they scraped a profit. A profit of 4.6pts from 46 bets. 10% ROI. I’d take every week!

Misc Systems

3 winners from 23 bets. Shocking really and a loss of 11.86pts. The only surprise was STOZ found a winner the other systems didn’t but this system will need to find many more of these before the season is out to dig itself out of the hole it is in.

Draw Systems

8 winners from 38 for a loss of 10.48pts. System D6 is on a bit of a run. 2 winners in the last 22 bets. Could do with a few winners soon to steady the ship again.

Euro Systems

34 winners from 64 bets and a good weekend again for these systems. 22.8pts profit from 64 bets. The standout systems at the moment are the ones that had most to prove coming into the season after the mess I made with my first foray into the European leagues last season.

Under-Over Systems

1 bet, 1 winner. A profit of 1.10pts.

Overall, a loss of 10pts from 204 bets. Similar to what I’ve been saying for the last few weeks, the profits are appearing on the ‘wrong’ systems for the majority of us and therefore, the returns are being held up by systems which are unproven coming into the season.

I said this on Twitter at the weekend but this is mentally draining seeing other bets do well without my money on them. At the start of the season, the bets I had most confidence in (along with everyone else following!) was the UK bets but at the moment, I have to be honest and say my confidence in the Draw and Euro bets is higher. No surprise really considering the profits these systems are consistently posting but it’s tough to take personally. I feel like I’m forever looking at what I could have had if I took a chance on some unproven systems and yet, I played safe and went in heavy for the systems with the proven record over the last few seasons. Last season, I got burnt badly by the Euro systems (not so much financially, more mentally!) and I suspect that crept into my thinking in the Summer when building my portfolio and giving advice to others before the season started.

Below is the P&L graph of the system I have put into Cassini’s FTL league this season. I wanted a ‘unique’ system to provide an overview of the service and I’m sorry to say that I think this system does what was intended. It is now down for the season again after the last few weeks and I think the returns are a fair reflection of the service this season. Still hoping the system can end in profit and hopefully climb back up the FTL league but at the moment, I’m looking behind me rather than in front of me giving the run the system is on.

Let’s hope for some better results soon....

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