Monday, 5 May 2014

April 2014 Monthly Review

Similar to what I did last month, I’m going to write the review of the month without discussing the underlying results in too much detail. I didn’t want to use the underlying results to excuse the performance of the systems last month and therefore, it’s only fair I don’t use the underlying results as a way to explain the performance this month. Let’s just say that it has been a very favourable month for those of us betting on Aways. :)

I spent a little while dusting off the TFA record books for March and I suspect I’ll need to do the same here. Thankfully, we’ve smashed some profit records this month rather than records for the biggest losses in a month!

In terms of my own betting portfolio, this month is the best month I’ve ever had betting. I was in the doldrums at the end of March and 4 weeks later, I’m buzzing about the month I’ve had and the overall return for the season given how difficult it has been. I’ve said all season I’d take break-even for my TFA bets in my betting portfolio and I’m now doing a fair bit better than this after the month I’ve just had. Throw in the fact the other systems I follow had a great month and suddenly, the world looks a much different place!

Many of the systems which had record losing months last month have followed it up with their best ever month. My mind boggles at why this happens and some of the systems looked on their knees last month and yet, they’ve bounced back this month and haven’t had a losing day. To go from 4 weeks of barely having a winning day to 4 weeks of barely having a losing day is a little bit surreal but that’s what has happened.

Anyway, that’s a summary of the month. Can’t remember too many months as good as this one.

Est Systems

Here’s the results for algorithm one:

Overall, 27 winners from 64 bets and a profit of 25.2pts. An ROI of 39.3%.

Aways found 21 winners from 46 bets at an average odds of 3.74. A profit of 31.5pts from 46 bets for an ROI of 68.5%!

Homes really struggled though and found 6 winners from 18 bets. A loss of 6.4pts.

The Away value bands were interesting. The ROI increases as we move up the bands until the >30% band as there were no winners from 2 bets in this band. It’s nice to see the lowest value bets have a profitable month for a change but most of the profits came with the bets where value was 5%+. A profit of 22.3pts for all bets with >5% value from 16 bets.

Homes struggled across the piece.

Overall, a really strong performance from the first algorithm this month.  Looking at the historical results, algorithm one has had its best ever month since the algorithms went live. This algorithm had its worst ever month last month. It has followed up a loss of 23.1pts with a profit of 25.2pts! Crazy.

Here’s the results for algorithm two:

20 winners from 50 and a profit of 18.8pts. A very similar story to the first algorithm whereby Homes really struggled. Homes lost 4.9pts from 11 bets. Aways made a profit of 23.8pts from 39 bets.

Again, the away profits were boosted from the returns where bets had at least 5% value. Looking at all Away bets with 5%+ value, a profit of 19.1pts from 17 bets.

Homes struggled across the value bands.

Historically, last month was the 3rd worst month ever and this month is the 2nd best month ever! Again, quite amazing how this has occurred and if you are going to have a terrible month, I don’t think there is a better time to have a great month than straight after!

Given the results on the algorithms, you would think that the combined systems would have an amazing time of it this month but as has been the story for most of the season, this hasn’t happened unfortunately.

Here’s the results for the Est Systems:

88 winners from 210 bets for a profit of 76.3pts. Last month, they managed 90 winners from 307 bets!

Looking at system 7, it has been a nightmare system all season as it hasn’t done a good job at filtering system 6 at all. The same this month. When system 6 makes a profit of 25pts from 64 bets, you would hope that by randomly selecting 13 bets, you would have a chance of a profit! Unfortunately, the 13 bets on system 7 created a profit of 1pt and then system 8 made a loss of 1pt. Too many bets were filtered out unfortunately.

On the other hand, system 22 has done a great job all season at filtering bets. This month, it has taken a 37.6% ROI on system 21 and picked 9 bets on system 22. 6 winners from 9 and a profit of 10.5pts. A very good performance and filtering the systems like you dream about!

Things therefore look great on system 6-21 and 6-22. However, when you get to 7-21 and beyond, things drop rapidly as a result of system 7 and 8 again filtering out too many winners. Very frustrating.

It’s been a very frustrating season for the Est Systems and the fact that the ratings haven’t been as good as we’ve come to expect and then when things go well, the systems haven’t filtered the bets anywhere near as good as you hope and ultimately, add a disappointing set of ratings to some poor filtering and you get the sort of season the Est Systems have had this season!

Coming into the season, these were arguably my most proven systems and the ones I had most confidence in but as we look back on the season, these systems have undoubtedly been the most disappointing aspect of the service this season.  Interestingly, if I look at the results since these systems went live, they still stack up fairly well and therefore, I won’t make any knee-jerk reactions after this season regarding their future. Any decisions will be based on the profitability over all results to date and not just this season.

New Systems

Here’s the results for algorithm 3:

Last month was the worst ever month for this algorithm but thankfully, this month has been the best ever month for this algorithm! A profit of 39.4pts from 89 bets is an amazing return.

Aways had a dream month with a profit of 49.1pts from 60 bets. 29 winners from 60 bets at an average odds of 3.71! All the value bands had a great month as you would expect.

On the other hand, Homes had a very tricky month. A loss of 9.7pts from 29 bets. All the value bands lost.

When you see the Underlying results this month, you will start to understand why these results occurred but overall, I can’t be too disappointed when the algorithm has a month like this. Ideally, I’d like the Homes to do a little better but maybe I’m asking for too much!

Here’s the results for algorithm 4:

Very similar comments to algorithm 3 I think. Last month was a nightmare, this month was something of a dream. A profit of 36.3pts from 103 bets. Aways made the vast majority of the profits although Homes had a profitable month too which makes these results slightly better than algorithm 3.

Looking at the value bands, for the Aways, 7 of the 8 bets with a value of 10%+ won. A profit of 17.7pts. If only it was always this easy!

The same bets for Homes had 2 winners from 11 bets for a loss of 6.6pts. The lower value Home bets did really well this month.

Again, it’s hard to say too much here as the numbers speak for themselves. A truly stunning month.

In an ideal world, when the ratings are as good as this, you would hope the systems would go on and have an amazing month. Here’s the results for the New Systems this month:

Overall then, a profit of 156.9pts from 453 bets. An ROI of 34.6%. Considering the systems lost 200pts last month, it’s slightly annoying they couldn’t capitalise on the performance of the rating algorithms more this month and wipe out the full loss from last month.

Looking at the returns by system, the frustrating aspect is again system 33 (not the first time I’ve said that this season!). Only 6 bets made it onto the system and with only 2 winners, a profit of 0.5pts. That basically ruined the returns on system 33-41 and 33-42 and therefore, 3 of the systems made a profit of 1.5pts. The other 8 systems made a profit of 155.4pts!

System 31-41 was the star with a profit of 33.1pts from 66 bets. 31-42 recovered a little from last month with a profit of 15pts and then the returns reduce as we move up the combined systems.

Very similar comments apply to these systems with regards the filtering this season. When you see the returns on system 31-41, it’s baffling to see losses on the other combined systems. Those who decided against system 31 or system 31-41 this season will be experiencing a different season on these New systems than some others but that’s part of the game.

Overall, a great month for these systems but it was needed after the mess in March. I’ve said before that on their day, these systems can create 100pts profit in a month no problem in total but I think March showed what can happen when things go wrong! Will be interesting to review these New systems at the end of the season after two seasons of results to look at. Systems 31-33 of course are in their 3rd season.

Misc Systems

Here’s the results for this month:

At an overall level, a profit of 106.3pts from 242 bets. An ROI of 43.9%. The best month ever for these 6 systems in total. Last month was the worst month ever with a loss of 88pts in total, so they have at least managed to win back all of last month’s losses!

I talked last month about how the fact that STOZ was really disappointing this season and last month, STOZ had an additional 19 bets compared to STOY and hit 19 losers! This month, STOZ had an additional 14 bets and hit 11 winners from these 14 bets. An amazing turnaround.  Equates to an additional profit of 20.7pts which wipes out the 19pts loss from last month. Very strange run of results.

Even after this month, we can’t get away from the fact STOZ has had a poor season and again, it will be interesting to review STOZ at season end. 21-31 and 6-21-31 have outperformed the 3 SGM systems this season and they did very well again this month.

Last season, the 3 SGM systems wiped the floor with the other 3 systems but interestingly, if I go back to the first season when all these systems were live, the results are similar to this season. I think as I’ve said before this season, a season isn’t long enough to judge any system at this game and therefore, we’ll take stock of the results after this season and look at all 3 seasons in total.

Before this month, I was sort of coming to the conclusion that these 6 systems don’t really add too much to the service and ultimately, when the base ratings are losing, these 6 systems don’t seem to do too much to stem the losses and ultimately, I’m not sure what the systems add to system 21,6-21 and 31 as they are probably not quite as good as any of these systems.

Of course, after a month like this, it doesn’t become so straightforward to drop these systems and knowing that some people have made good profits from these systems over the last few seasons, I can’t imagine they’d appreciate me removing them from the service. Looking at my own returns, these results really made my season last season and therefore, I’ll think long and hard about what I do with these systems going forward.

Here’s the results split by Home and Away for these systems incidentally:

A similar trend as on the other systems. Homes had a very difficult month. The Underlying results will help to explain why!

Draw Systems

Here’s the results this month:

Overall, a loss of 33.5pts from 423 bets.  Algorithm 1 lost, algorithm 2 made a small profit and the filtering didn’t really work well at all this month. However, given how difficult it was for Draw bets in general this month (very low strike rate), I’m not going to go over the top here.

I guess the disappointing thing has been the performance of the highest combined systems this season as a result of system D3 having a really poor season. This is similar to what has happened with the other UK systems and ultimately, this season has shown how difficult it can be to follow a small number of bets on a system.  The more bets you have, the less likely variance is going hit over a season.

D1-D6 again had a good month and this system has had a great season so far. D2-D6 did OK but the systems involving D7 lost badly this month.

I’ve tried my best to not go over the top when reviewing these systems so far this season when things have went well and I’ll adopt the same strategy here. Disappointing to have a losing month but when you see the underlying results for this month (and the season as a whole), it’s difficult to come to any other conclusion than the fact that these systems have had a great first season in very difficult conditions.  Let’s see what they can do in future when there is a higher strike rate for draws!

Euro Systems

Here’s the results this month:

 Overall, a profit of 56.1pts from 288 bets. An ROI of 19.5%.

Another solid month for these systems although if you look at the results, all the profits have come from the filtering or the cross referring of the algorithms. Both algorithms had a small profit and a small loss but yet, when you see E1-E6 making an ROI of 20.7%, you can see how well it has worked filtering out the bets that only appeared on one algorithm.

The other highlight is E2 which managed to take the returns on E1 and increase the ROI to 52.6%! E3 then took these bets and only managed to break-even.

Looking at the combined systems then, the top 4 systems had great months but the highest two combined systems broke even. After this month, 10 of the 11 Euro systems are in profit this season which is a massive step forward from last season. It’s still early days to try to draw too many conclusions but as always, we’ll use the season review to assess how these systems have done. I’m still not sure there is too much of an edge with these Euro ratings but a profit is a profit!

Under-Over Systems

8 winners from 13 bets this month and a profit of 4.1pts. These systems have steadied the ship somewhat after the large losses earlier in the season but these systems will be retired this season which has been the plan for a while. They flattered to deceive in their first season but there is definitely no edge here!


Before I show the overall results for this month, it’s only fair I remind you all of the results last month! Last month was a loss of 301.8pts from 2,172 bets. 

This month, the systems have made a profit of 366.2pts from 1,629 bets. An ROI of 22.48%.

Looking at the last two months in total, a profit of 64.4pts at an ROI of 1.7%.

If someone had offered me a profit of 1.7% two months ago over 3,800 bets, I would have turned it down quickly. I’m confident the systems have more of an edge than this over a large sample of bets.

If someone had offered me a profit of 1.7% over the last two months at the end of March, I would have laughed at the idea that the systems could recoup all of the losses from last month in the space of a month! The fact the systems are now at a peak for the season is amazing if I’m honest.  If I’d been offered this, I would have bitten their hand off in a flash!

With only May to go, it now looks like the systems are going to end in profit for the season. How this translates to followers of the systems will vary enormously but with so many systems now in profit for the season, it should translate into a good number of subscribers in profit for the season. Of course, the size of any profits won’t look like anything what many expected, the smoothness (or lack of it!) for their P&L won’t look anything like what they expected but sometimes, you just need to accept a poor season and move on.

Next post will look at the underlying results for April and the season although I don’t intend on going into too much depth. Will save this detailed post for the season end. 

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