Friday, 5 August 2011

It's oh so quiet......

I'm aware of the fact that it's very quiet on here at the moment. I'm not really one for writing blog posts unless I've got something interesting to say (I'm sure a few of you would disagree with that comment!) but with no football to analyse, I thought it was better to write nothing rather than write rubbish people would have to wade through.

I'm sure all of you reading the blog read most of the other blogs down the side I'm reading too. I linked to a couple of new ones in the past few days that belong to Mark and Dave Both are worth a look.

Without sounding like I'm sucking up to my mate Rowan, his blog remains a brilliant read and I've particularly enjoyed the last couple of posts on why we do what we're doing. His blog comments are worth reading too as like this blog, he seems to have an above average IQ reader I suspect. I'm sucking up to my readers now ffs! It rivals Cassini's as the most entertaining blog I think. I best stop the sucking up now......

In terms of why we're betting and how we got here, my story is actually quite interesting (well, to me anyway!) and therefore, I would like to do a post on here. I would write it on Rowan's comments section but I'd need about 10 comments, so I'll post it here. I don't mind sharing a little about my journey over the past few years as it does feel like a bit of a journey when I think back. I seem to have come a long way with regards to online betting considering I didn't own an online betting account 4 years ago but I'm not really sure where I'm going which is something I should probably reflect on before the season starts. If I can get some time this weekend, I'll do a post on it. Gets me away from analysing spreadsheets for a bit.

In terms of my last post, it turned into a bit of a non event with ICT playing well, being unable to score and then Hibs scoring in the 3rd minute of injury time. Three interesting things about that game.

Firstly, the reason that ICT were being classed as value was defined on my last post. Interestingly, I read a few of the reviews of the game and they referred to the Hibs win as a massive surprise given the relative strength of the teams at home and away and the fact Hibs hadn't ever beaten ICT away from home in the SPL. When you consider ICT were 11/8 to win, I took a little satisfaction from that fact that my ratings appeared to agree with the consensus of the writers.

Secondly, Alan kindly pointed out that Fink Tank had rated the game very similar to me and had ICT as odds on shots for the game too. Of course, no consolation as the bet would have lost and we were both wrong but in terms of thinking my ratings were a long way off, maybe they weren't as far out as I thought last week. Fink Tank has some pretty good results (Dan at the SBC is a fan of them) and therefore, it gives me a little confidence to know mines were maybe not as far out as I thought last week. Of course, we could both be miles off at the same time but I take comfort anywhere I can find it when the ratings are wrong!

Lastly, when I suggested ICT, they were 11/8 in most places and they weren't being backed. I checked near kick-off and I think they were 2.38 in one place, 2.30 in one places and 2.25 and lower across the board. I think they were about 2.24 on Betfair whereas they were 2.40 when I put it up on here as I remember looking.

Again, you can't read too much into this sort of thing as it's based on one game but I like to think this game is all about value and betting on teams who kick-off 5% lower prices is a good way to make money, even ignoring the fact the market and the ratings got it wrong! Last season, the majority of my teams started lower than I backed them at (much lower in some cases) and therefore, it's another indication that I might have a way of beating the market here.

I'm pleased to report having looked quickly at this weekend's games in the SPL, there are no value bets. I was going to do the same for the first set of fixtures down South but I've had no time this week as I've been busy doing stuff for others, so you'll have to pass on my words of wisdom. As I said on my last post and in a reply to Alan, I won't be betting until the 6 games are played this season in each league, so I can bide my time. I've waited all summer, so what's another 6 weeks?

In terms of what I've been doing, I've been working with some of the guys who are on my email list distribution next season to come up with small portfolios of systems for them to play. As I said recently, my dream would be for this to be automated (either on a website or in Excel) one day and people could choose systems, staking plans and run What-If scenarios to determine an optimal portfolio they'd like to follow.

I obviously don't want to give away any of the guy's portfolios as that would be a bit unfair and I also don't want to go quoting which portfolio is which as that wouldn't be fair on them either. However, here's a couple of pictures of the sort of info I was sharing with the guys.

Seeing this sort of thing just whets my appetite even more for the first set of bets. :) Only another 29 days to go......


  1. Interesting that you mention the finktank, which is an excellent tool when taken in the context of it's inherant weaknesses (lack of team news/injuries etc). I use it quite regularly as a filter for my betting, but I have often wondered how up-to-date it is? It has a banner stating 'updated for the 2009/10 season' or something similar, but are you aware as to whether it has been altered since then? Obviously if it hasn't we are all using a tool 2 years out of date! Thanks, Justin

  2. Hi Justin.

    It is still being updated. There was a really good article published by the Secret Betting Club at the end of last week showing the results for Fink Tank last season. They were very good. I know the SBC are a massive fan of them and when you see the results from last season, you can appreciate why.

    I don’t want to quote figures etc. as these are for SBC members but in terms of the question you asked, the ratings are still being updated. You can also tell by the fact the promoted teams are included in the ratings for the games. ;)

    Hope that helps.