Saturday, 10 September 2011


Having been through last season and the ups and downs, the results today don’t surprise me too much if I’m honest. A quick look around the SBC forum and a few other blogs and I can see that for most of us using our own football ratings in the lower English leagues, it was difficult today. Easy for me to say but this isn’t the worst these systems will do this season. There will be worse times than this I’m sure as there were worse days than this last season!

Hard to know what to say about today really. I wasn’t confident going into today as I couldn’t understand why systems 21 and 22 didn’t find more bets when the other two algorithms were finding bets for fun and that worried me. Thankfully, that meant the combined systems from last season didn’t find many bets but every bet they did find was a loser! Not what I wanted to start the season with but not much I can do about it.

I didn’t mention it before the weekend but those reading the blog from earlier this season will know that Dagenham were the first bet on system 8-22 since the systems went live this season. During the trial period before the 6 games were played, the first 3 bets won from this system and I didn’t have a penny on any of them. I just knew (as did everyone reading this I’m sure!) that the first system 8-22 bet would lose this season when I had money on it. Had to happen as it’s Sod’s Law and that follows me around when I’m gambling.

Anyway, no point worrying about this weekend too much. In the grand scheme of things, this weekend counts for around 2% of the season in total, so the systems have 98% of the season left to turn things around.

If I was wanting to look at the positives, this weekend could have been much worse. I don’t know for sure why there were so many weaker bets thrown up this weekend from my ratings (the bookies odds were a bit off I suspect) but thankfully, the systems did their job in narrowing down the bets. Admittedly, narrowing down the bets and seeing them all lose isn’t exactly a positive but the more filtering this weekend, the better! Systems 6-22, 7-22 and 8-22 only lost 1pt this weekend. With hindsight, that’s a great performance when you see the mess the other systems made this weekend.

Algorithm one found 14 bets this weekend. 2 winners and 12 losers with a loss of 9.90pts. If backing DNB, 2 winners, 5 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 6pts for DNB.

Algorithm two found 9 bets and 9 losers. If backing DNB, this was 5 draws and 4 losses for a loss of 4pts.

Algorithm three found 17 bets with only 3 winners. A loss of 9.58pts. If backing DNB, 3 winners, 6 draws and 8 losers. A loss of 5.60pts.

As usual, we’re more interested in how the systems used the bets.

The established systems from last season lost 43.9pts from 50 games. If backing DNB, this reduced this loss to 23.56pts from 50 games.

The new systems lost 37.58pts from 49 games. If backing DNB, this reduced the loss to 14.69pts.

Whatever way you look at this weekend, it’s a bad weekend.

One thing that has been discussed a lot on the blog before is whether backing DNB is better than backing H/A. I’m playing a mixture of both this season but I’m using DNB on the new systems since these were built to maximise profits from DNB betting. This weekend would have personally been a disaster without the DNB on the new systems and therefore, although today was a big losing day for me, it wasn’t the disaster it could have been although it was still nearly a disaster!

The established systems found 22 draws in 50 games and the new systems found 26 draws in 49 games. That’s 48 draws in 99 games which shows why DNB managed to do much better this weekend.

I’ll be back on Tuesday afternoon with the bets for the midweek games.

PS. I forgot to say, the best systems this weekend were TOX, STOY and STOZ. They still haven’t had a bet this season yet!

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