Tuesday, 27 September 2011

Weekend Review

Another tricky day on Saturday and it has been a very strange month. This season, I'm paying much more attention to how others are doing in the market who use their own ratings on the same leagues I'm playing in and so far, the evidence points to this month being a tough month.

I'll try to keep abreast of developments elsewhere and I might add a comment or two in my monthly review as at the end of the day, I think my results are going to be heavily correlated to how others are doing. No matter how good I think my ratings are, nothing I'm doing here is much different to what others are doing and therefore, my results need to be looked at in context of the market as well as on their own. If it is a month where a ratings approach to football betting has struggled, then I'll struggle too and I think this is happening this month.

Anyway, I'll think about this a little for the monthly review in a couple of days.

In the meantime, I can't hide from the fact Saturday was poor again.

Algorithm one found 18 bets, 7 winners and a profit of 1.89pts for H/A betting. There were only 4 draws in there, so DNB only made a profit of 0.44pts from the 18 games. Not a disaster for the algorithm but the systems didn't exactly utilise these bets well as you'll see later!

Algorithm two only found 2 winners from 12 bets. A loss of 5.1pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.98pts for DNB betting. 4 draws in there helped DNB returns.

Algorithm three found 4 winners from 14 bets for a loss of 1.82pts. DNB betting made a loss of 2.08pts.

Overall, not a great day again and the strike rate at the moment is so low, it's hard to break-even, let alone make a profit.

Saturday wasn't helped too much by the systems either and the strongest bets on the algorithms performed poorly, so it made it a poor day for the systems.

The established systems made a loss of 24.51pts from 65 games. Disappointing considering the base algorithms made a loss of 3.21pts from the 30 bets. The combined systems didn't do well at all. DNB wasn't much better with a loss of 19.62pts.

The new systems didn't fare much better. A loss of 16.02pts for H/A betting and a loss of 13.68pts for DNB betting from 53 games.

Overall, a poor weekend (again!) and it has been a really tough month. Apart from one midweek which went well, every other day has been disappointing this season and it wasn't the start I hoped for this month.

I'll pull together a post later in the week for the monthly review.

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