Sunday, 18 September 2011

Weekend Results

This season so far is starting to make last season look like it was fairly stable on a week by week basis. Another really poor weekend this weekend which is frustrating given that the midweek was a big improvement on last weekend but it has slipped back again.

I’m sure things will settle down a little once we get more games played but the strike rate at the moment for winners is about as low as you can get I suspect. A trained monkey guessing H/A/X could do better than the ratings at the moment, so hopefully things will pick up soon. If not, it’s going to be a long season!

Just for the record, the systems overall (established or new systems) have never had a losing September month, so there are two ways to take this. They are due a losing month or things will turnaround quickly in the next two weeks.

In terms of how bad this month is, it’s only the 4th or 5th worst month on record so far but of course, there is plenty of time left to make this month the worst ever. On the upside, there is plenty of time for it to turn out to be profitable too. The next two weeks will be interesting.

As for this weekend, well, a total disaster.

Algorithm one found 16 bets but only managed to find 3 winners and 3 draws. 10 losers is really poor and that made it a loss of 9.09pts for H/A betting and DNB was only slightly better with a loss of 8pts.

Algorithm two found 10 bets with only 2 winners. There were 3 draws in there too. H/A lost 3.6pts with DNB only losing 2.46pts.

Algorithm three (which is finding far too many weak bets at the moment I suspect as a lot of these bets are very marginal value) found 16 bets with only 1 winner. A loss of 12.5pts for H/A betting. DNB lost 9.53pts.

Basically, when you are trying to pick system bets based on these 3 algorithms yesterday, it’s impossible to make a profit. When the base ratings are making massive losses on the day, trying to find a system to make a profit is nearly impossible.

Last weekend, I thought the systems did well in minimising the damage but this weekend, they weren’t quite so fortunate and many systems had large losses.

One thing that is shining through very early on is that you really need to be cross referring algorithms. I knew that after last season but as discussed during the close season, I wanted to keep systems 6,7,8,21,22 alive since they account for a lot of proofed results. So far this season, these systems are haemorrhaging losses and therefore, they’ll bring down my overall return this season I expect for the systems. Thankfully, I’ve steered everyone towards the combined systems this season which was again reinforced by the SBC in their review of last season, so hopefully this will limit any damage these single systems can do to anyone’s portfolio.

At the end of the day, the combined systems can’t win if the single bet systems are losing. Things need to improve and improve quickly.
The established systems from last season lost 37.79pts this weekend for H/A betting and DNB lost 26.38pts. Very disappointing again and in line with what happened last weekend.

The new systems actually had a worse weekend as they had less bets but they still managed to lose 31.10pts for H/A betting and 23.99pts for DNB betting.

Overall, a dreadful weekend and hopefully things can only get better.

The strike rate overall is down at less than 25% and it is the lowest strike rate historically for any month that I can see from having a quick look at the monthly results.

There was an interesting comment on the last post from an anonymous poster. I think anyone new to reading this blog must be wondering what the hell is going on with all these bets at the moment but all I can say is that don’t pay too much attention to the single systems 6,7,8,21,22 and 31 as they aren’t the bets I recommend people follow. These systems are basically core systems used to find the best bets on other systems. Concentrate on the combined systems and the results of these systems.

At the moment, every system is losing which means it may not seem to matter which system you follow but long-term, I can guarantee that system 8-22 will do better than system 6 for example!

Right, I’ll leave that there for now. Back on Monday with any bets for the Bsq Prem card in midweek.

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