I've posted up a monthly review for September on a new page on the blog.
http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/201112-monthly-results.html
I'll hopefully follow it next week with some posts on the blog which will compare September 2011 with previous months to try to work out just how bad the month was historically.
Numbers wise, it was slightly better than April 2011 but worse than Feb 2011 but not sure that's fair. DNB did OK in Feb and April whereas this month is the worst ever for DNB, so draws aren't to blame for these losses this month.
Looking at the monthly P&L for the systems which went live last season, it now reads +50, +83, +80, +72, +15, -62, +66, -94, +53, -86. The only thing you can glean from this is that there are very few break-even months....actually, there are none. You either win a lot or lose a lot it appears.
Looking at the pattern of the last 5 months, the next month should be a big +.........
Hi Graeme. Greatly enjoy reading your blog. Mountains of analysis gone into making a profit from my favourite sport. Sepptember certainly hasn't been all bad for you. I follow several of your systems and made only made the smallest of losses, small enough to have turned a profit with just one more winner.I started a blog myself at the beginning of the season www.green-pullover.blogspot.com and perhaps you would give me a link on your blog. I actually made a profit in September - now if only it had been big enough to offset the loss I made in August! Thanks Steve
ReplyDeleteHi Steve.
ReplyDeleteYou did well to only make a small loss mate, I wish I had only made a small loss! The month was a disaster really although with the high correlation of bets, it wasn't missing as many winners as one might suspect.
Anyway, I roll on to October now, devoid of any confidence and wondering if I might lose my betting bank! lol
Cheers,
Graeme
Graeme ,
ReplyDeleteIts not just your betting bank you should be worried about. The hype you create means people are following this with real money. They may lose this money, money which they may not be able to afford. I urge you to think about this.
Hi Anonymous.
ReplyDeleteInteresting observation.
Firstly, with regards to hype created, that will have been created by the results last season on the blog which were also proofed to the SBC. I can’t help it that last season went OK and this season has started poorly. That’s why they call this gambling and if I knew it was going to be such a tough start this season, I would have started today instead!
In terms of the start this season it needs to be kept in perspective. There are a few professional outfits who are using ratings and this season, they have started slightly worse than me. Hence, it’s all relative. I don’t want to name and shame but it does give me some hope that last month may have just been a really tricky month for everyone.
As for anyone losing money, if people don’t think the systems are any good, they should back the other team and they’d be doing great after last month. I would suggest they continue with this method if they think I’ve overhyped the systems. We’ll see who does better at the end of the season.
Thanks for your comment.
Graeme
Anonymous' comment should be treated with the contempt it deserves. I fail to see how you can be accused of 'creating hype' when all you are doing is running a (lets be honest) fairly obscure blog. As for people losing 'money which they may not be able to afford' isn't that the first rule of gambling - to only use money you CAN afford to lose ? I would urge Anonymous to THINK before posting again...
ReplyDeleteHi Wolfman Jack.
ReplyDeleteI did think the hype comment was a little misleading considering all I'm doing is posting up bets and then showing the results after the event. Any hype comes from people looking at the results and thinking the future will always follow the past. Not always as easy at that.
I'm not sure if your 'obscure blog' comment is a compliment or a criticism but I know what you're saying. I reckon that there are many people who read the blog who don't get anything from it (just looks like millions of games posted up randomly every week!) but I reckon there will be a small sample of blog readers who will appreciate what I'm trying to build here. At the end of the day, people can just read the blog and I'm not forcing anyone to follow the bets I post. If people do want to have a dabble, then they can do so but no one should be playing with money they can't afford to lose.
My comment about losing my betting bank was tongue in cheek but clearly, anonymous picked up on it and thought it was a worse month than it was last month! After the weekend, a couple of the systems are now in small profit and none of the losing systems are in that bad shape considering how tough it has been this season so far. Hopefully things pick up from here and anonymous can retract their statement one day!
Cheers Jack.
Graeme