Sunday, 4 September 2011

First Weekend Review

The first of the weekend reviews from this season.

A bit of a strange weekend where the different rating algorithms appeared to find different strong bets which meant we didn’t end up with too many strong bets on combined systems.

It’s hard to know how to write up the results this season as with 3 different rating algorithms and with a different model throwing up other bets, you can see 4 different ways of analysing the results straight away. I'll do each algorithm first and then talk about the established systems from last season against the new systems from this season.

I’ll start with algorithm one. 5 value bets found 2 winners and 3 losers. A profit of 0.67pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.89pts if using DNB.

Algorithm two did much better with 3 bets, 2 winners and a loser. A profit of 4.25pts for H/A betting and a profit of 2.19pts if using DNB.

The new DNB rating algorithm had 5 bets this weekend. 2 winners and 3 losers with a profit of 2.25pts to H/A betting and a profit of 0.19pts if using DNB.

Overall then, the second algorithm did better this weekend although the new DNB algorithm did well too. The disappointing algorithm was the first one although hardly a disaster.

Of course, the systems then take these bets and put them onto the established systems from last season and the new systems from this season. I’ve shown the results below.

In summary, the established systems had 20 bets and created a loss of 1.41pts for H/A betting. For DNB, it was much worse with a loss of 6.6pts from the 20 games.

The new systems had a much better week though. 14 games created a profit of 15.5pts for H/A betting. DNB did OK too with a profit of 7.16pts.

Looking at all systems combined then, 34 bets created a profit of 14.09pts for H/A betting and for DNB, a profit of 0.58pts.

A good return overall this weekend although for many of us following, difficult to make a profit since more of our portfolio weighting is going to be towards the established systems from last season, rather than the new systems from this season!

I’ll be back on Friday with next weekend’s bets although I may do a midweek post with some additional thoughts.


  1. Hi Graeme , just had three bets for saturday so far before all you ratings guys force the price down ;)
    BRISTOL ROVERS 2.75 stanjames
    MKD 2.8 lads
    GATESHEAD 3.5 stanjames

    come and visit my blog mate its

    I'd put a link on for you if i knew how?

  2. Cheers Steve.

    I'll throw up a link to your blog when I get a chance. Working on my ratings as I write this mate. I'm not surprised Gateshead is down as a bet although I think Fleetwood are slowly warming up this season. Gateshead would be good value I suspect though at 5/2. They haven't won 4 games away from home on the spin in my data from what I can make out though which puts me off slightly!

    The MK Dons game should be a cracker too I suspect.

    I'll post mines up on Friday on here although I'll issue them to a small group tomorrow evening.

    Good luck.