Wednesday, 28 March 2012

Always evens out in the end........

I said on the last post that the systems would have to pull something out of the bag to keep the winning run going and not for the first time, they didn’t let me down. I still think of the systems as ‘tipsters’ in the sense they all provide bets and we choose to follow which tipsters we like best. Some following prefer more bets, some following prefer less bets. Some prefer backing outright and some prefer using Asian Handicaps. Thankfully, on nights like last night, everyone ends up a happy bunny.

There were initially 8 games that mattered but this was reduced to 7 when the Shrewsbury game was abandoned. Considering my selection were 1-0 down, possibly a little bit of luck there but as I said on the post when I bemoaned my lack of luck recently, it always evens out in the end. Late goals going against you and general bad luck can kill returns in the short-term and that has happened to a large extent this month but in the overall scheme of things, I’d never believe that a winning system can turn into a losing system due to bad luck in the long-term. I think in the case of short-term and long-term with my systems, we’re talking hundreds of bets and thousands of bets and I’m comfortable that in the long-term, luck evens out.

Anyway, back to the 7 games. The biggest game by far was Lincoln. They appeared on all 20 systems, including the famous 7/22 system. I think Rowan is doing a grand job across at his blog showing how good this system is and hopefully others agree and choose to subscribe to the systems next season. :) Joking aside, one point that is often missed I think when people look at The Football Analyst service (rather than just this blog) is the ‘fairness’ I try to use when quoting prices (which the systems are then proofed at). I know from regularly reading Rowan’s blog that he usually beats my odds on the system 7-22 selections. I know from exchanging emails with others that they do too.

On Monday night, Lincoln were given out as a bet at odds of 2.79. At this time, I know for a fact that they were 2.90+ in 3 places. There was plenty around 2.80+ with Asian books too. Therefore, I would hope that 2.79 was a minimum that people would take. As it turns out, Rowan took 2.84 I see on his blog, so in effect, he’s beaten the suggested price again. Although a small point, I think it’s a valid point for those following and probably more importantly for the future, for those considering subscribing next season.

That’s not to say that you’ll beat every price I give out as that’s not the aim. I would simply be understating returns then which means that my results would look too low when compared with others. I really do play on the fairness aspect where possible. Of course, if you are unable to place the bets close to the time I give them out, you’ll probably get lower odds but I’d be amazed if many struggling to match my quoted results this season due to price movements. I know blog readers who are placing the bets after they appear on here and they can get to within 1%-2% of my returns this season, so you can see how easy it is to follow the service. For a start, if you can make a profit following the blog, you’ll make more following the bets in real time!

So, Lincoln thankfully did the business last night for me. I’d love to say they dominated and deserved to win by a few more goals but I had a glance at the shots on target and I think they maybe only had 2 and scored 2 goals. They’ll drop down my ratings after that win!

The other 6 games then produced 3 winners and 3 draws. Considering the odds of the selections, a fantastic performance from the ratings last night and when they had their backs against the wall, the systems pulled out what they needed.

With this weekend left to finish off the month, last night actually means the systems go into the weekend with a small profit in March. I feel like I’m about to go into the famous Kevin Keegan speech here but I would love it, and I mean love it, if they could end March in profit. At the end of the day, monthly profits don’t matter a jot but I’ve been really proud of the consistency the systems have shown since they went live and as Rowan also touched on last night on his blog (have I said he writes a good blog?), to achieve this level of consistency is actually very unusual for any system or tipster.

So, one weekend to go, a tiny profit on the month and the month hangs in the balance of what happens this weekend. Let’s hope it ends up better for me than it did for Newcastle that year!

Algorithm one, two and three all had 7 bets. 4 wins, 3 draws. A profit of 7.02pts for H/A betting and a profit of 6.18pts for DNB.

The established systems made a profit of 35.38pts from 30 bets for H/A betting. A profit of 26.67pts for DNB.

The new systems made a profit of 47.49pts from 45 bets for H/A betting. A profit of 40.1pts for DNB.

Overall, a much needed win and a return to something like their best form for the systems.

Be back on Friday at 6pm with the weekend bets.

Almost forgot, last night snapped the 9 day losing run too in March. About fuc*ing time! ;)

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