Thursday, 22 March 2012

7th losing day in a row!

As the title of the post states, it’s the 7th losing day in a row in March where the systems have had bets. It’s actually the 9th day in 11 days this month that the systems have lost.

As I’ve said on earlier posts this month, I try my best to not discuss the dreaded ‘luck’ word when discussing short-term results as at the end of the day, there are so many system bets in a season, luck will even out and if it doesn’t even out this season, it will even out over the next season and so on.

Quite often, I try my best to not even mention late goals going against the systems as people reading will no doubt think I’m papering over the cracks of my systems losing their edge and the sort of rubbish that people spout in anonymous comments on this blog (which don’t get published). However, when you get a little run of luck going against you, it’s hard to not make mention of it, so here goes....

Plymouth appeared on 13 systems at odds of 2.75. Conceded a 95th minute goal to Macclesfield. A swing of 35.75pts.
Oxford appeared on 11 systems at odds of 4.00. Conceded a 94th minute equaliser to Shrewsbury. A swing of 44pts.
Bristol Rovers appeared on 14 systems at odds of 4.33. Conceded a 90th minute equaliser to Torquay. A swing of 60.62pts.
Walsall appeared on 9 systems at odds of 6.50. Conceded a 95th minute goal to Sheff Wed. A swing of 58.5pts.

Of course, I’ve picked 4 recent games at high odds on multiple systems. There are lots of other examples of late goals but in the long-run, the success of the systems are determined by the teams that appear the most times.

The Walsall one was a real sickener in midweek as Barnet had equalised against Dagenham with 10 mins left and that meant that to have a profitable night (and break my current losing streak), I needed Walsall to hold on. I was watching Sky Sports news and it was the final game to finish and the guy in the studio was almost as shocked as me that there had been a goal in the game and I knew before they want across that it was to Sheff Wed. Last kick of the game and in injury time in injury time. Nightmare.

That’s a small sample of games in the last 3 weeks that have gone against the systems. Not for one minute am I saying that all these teams deserved to win and of course, there are many things that affect the outcome of games (missed penalty last night by Coventry!) but in a short period of time (e.g. a month), I actually think it’s impossible to recover from these things going against you. Therefore, I’m facing up to the fact that the systems may experience only their 4th losing month in nearly two seasons. Obviously, with two weekends left, that may change and considering the systems are only making a small loss at the moment, it doesn’t take much to turn the month around but deep down, I can’t help feel that you can’t hide from the fact things haven’t gone my way with late goals and therefore, the systems are destined to lose on the month.

Anyway, onto the results update.

Algorithm one had 22 bets. 6 winners, 8 draws and 8 losers. A loss of 3.22pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.57pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 18 bets. 4 winners, 7 draws and 7 losers. A loss of 4.82pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.52pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 17 bets, 4 winners, 5 draws and 8 losers. A loss of 3.05pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.86ts for DNB betting.

A few too many draws this midweek which ultimately ensures that each rating algorithm lost. This will manifest itself into a bad night for the systems.

The established systems lost 18pts for H/A betting and 3.26pts for DNB betting.

The new systems lost 31.7pts for H/A betting and 17.3pts for DNB betting.

Overall, you can see quickly that the swing on the Walsall game put the systems into a loss making position on the night. There were too many draws on the night unfortunately and this ensured another losing night.

As you would expect, it was a much better night for AH betting and both sets of systems made a small profit if using AH 0.5 (dutching the win and draw). Definitely worth investigating AH betting this summer I think.

I’ll be back with the weekend bets Friday at 6pm.

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